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2<br />
Petteri Pihlajamäki<br />
Jaakko Pöyry<br />
petteri.pihlajamaki@poyry.fi<br />
Hannu Hytonen<br />
Jaakko Pöyry<br />
hannu.hytonen@poyry.fi<br />
<strong>17</strong>/04<br />
Mixed Tropical Hardwood –<br />
a minor and declining source of fibre for paper<br />
Economic Growth will be<br />
Fastest in Asia and Eastern<br />
Europe<br />
Economic growth continues to be a major<br />
driver for paper demand. Despite the current<br />
economic slowdown in the West and<br />
Japan, the global economy is expected to<br />
grow at a rate of 2.9 %/a in the long<br />
term. The long-term GDP growth will be<br />
fastest in China, Asia-Pacific and Eastern<br />
Europe including Russia (4-7 %/a), while<br />
in North America, Western Europe and<br />
Japan the growth is expected to remain<br />
at a much lower level (1.5-2.5 %/a).<br />
World demand for paper and paperboard<br />
is expected to grow at a rate of 2.2 %/a,<br />
reaching 453 million tons by the year<br />
2015 (Fig. 1).<br />
Because of the above mentioned differences<br />
in economic growth, paper and pa-<br />
1<br />
Million tons Forecast<br />
2<br />
500<br />
400<br />
Rest of the World<br />
Latin America<br />
North America<br />
Nordic countries<br />
Rest of Asia Rest of W. Europe<br />
300<br />
China<br />
Eastern Europe<br />
Japan<br />
Japan<br />
200<br />
Eastern Europe<br />
China<br />
Western Europe<br />
Rest of Asia<br />
100<br />
North America<br />
Latin America<br />
Rest of the World<br />
Production 2000<br />
Growth 2000-2015<br />
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015<br />
perboard production prospects vary considerably<br />
between regions, with a fairly<br />
modest growth for North America, Western<br />
Europe and Japan, but still significant<br />
growth potential for Asia, Latin America<br />
and Eastern Europe (Fig. 2). In relative<br />
terms, the paper industry will grow<br />
fastest in Eastern Europe (4.9 %/a), Asia<br />
excl. Japan (4.4 %/a) and Latin America<br />
(3.9 %/a). The main growth areas will<br />
be China/the rest of Asia accounting for<br />
46 % of the projected global production<br />
growth through 2015.<br />
This means that, due to the non uniform<br />
growth of paper and paperboard production,<br />
the traditional supply areas such as<br />
North America and Western Europe will<br />
become gradually less important. However,<br />
these regions will continue to dominate<br />
the world paper industry, accounting<br />
for over 50 % of the global production by<br />
2015.<br />
0 20 40 60<br />
Million tons<br />
80 100 120
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