Predicting Weather By The Moon - Xavier University Libraries

Predicting Weather By The Moon - Xavier University Libraries Predicting Weather By The Moon - Xavier University Libraries

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Weather By The Moon the economy of the Middle and Far East. It blew the frail craft of the first adventurous traders from the east coast of Africa across the Indian Ocean to the rich Malabar Coast of India. And in the First Century AD., Arabian mariners, trimming their sails to it, fared safely northeast across the Gulf of Aden to the mouth of the Indus River. Three centuries later, they rode the steady monsoon winds all the way to China. Even today, India’s economy is at the mercy of the monsoon. The country’s huge rice crop, the staple food for its teeming millions, depends on moisture that the monsoon brings from the Indian Ocean. In Greek, mene means Moon, while the word monsoon, and season derive from from mausim, the Arab word for Moon. Nature is predictable. It is often said that the weather is fickle. Surely not - the weather knows what it is doing. It is the forecasters who may be fickle. The whole thrust of science is towards discovering nature’s patterns.Therefore to begin with there must be an assumption that some predictable patterns exist. As discoveries are made, more patterns are revealed. It would be more unusual to find that events occurred in isolation, with no precedence or subsequence. There is no true random, because what we know of random is also something predictable. ‘Random’ comes from the Old french word randir, meaning to run. Running is hardly a random activity. So it is with the weather, which is triggered by the movements of the Moon. There is nothing mysterious about the moon’s motion. It has been measured extensively and 58

Madness and the Moon is as predictable as clockwork. After 133 years, or 7 cycles of 19 years, the moon loses about 19 minutes, or 10 seconds per year. A watch with that degree of accuracy would indeed be valued.. But we cannot easily see slow movements. Try watching a child or a flower grow, or the big hand of a clock move. Because we do not see slow changes unless we write them down, we easily miss the variations in the way the Moon moves and appears to change, invisible to the naked eye even within just two days. Little wonder then that memories of some changes of movement over longer periods, like certain cycles encompassing 8 years, 18.6 years, 133 years, 679 years and more, go unnoticed by most people. When we experience a flood or a tornado and tell each other that this has been the worst in living memory, we could be easily misleading themselves. Living memory is a concept seized on by the media to create headlines. This sells newspapers. But in reality living memory does not go very far. Test this on a friend and you may find that more often than not, they may not be able to remember what the weather was doing or what they happened to be wearing Monday or Tuesday of last week. 59

Madness and the <strong>Moon</strong><br />

is as predictable as clockwork. After 133 years, or 7 cycles<br />

of 19 years, the moon loses about 19 minutes, or 10<br />

seconds per year. A watch with that degree of accuracy<br />

would indeed be valued..<br />

But we cannot easily see slow movements. Try watching<br />

a child or a flower grow, or the big hand of a clock<br />

move. Because we do not see slow changes unless we write<br />

them down, we easily miss the variations in the way the<br />

<strong>Moon</strong> moves and appears to change, invisible to the naked<br />

eye even within just two days.<br />

Little wonder then that memories of some changes of<br />

movement over longer periods, like certain cycles encompassing<br />

8 years, 18.6 years, 133 years, 679 years and more,<br />

go unnoticed by most people. When we experience a flood<br />

or a tornado and tell each other that this has been the worst<br />

in living memory, we could be easily misleading themselves.<br />

Living memory is a concept seized on by the media to<br />

create headlines. This sells newspapers. But in reality living<br />

memory does not go very far. Test this on a friend and<br />

you may find that more often than not, they may not be<br />

able to remember what the weather was doing or what they<br />

happened to be wearing Monday or Tuesday of last week.<br />

59

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