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Predicting Weather By The Moon - Xavier University Libraries

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<strong>Predicting</strong><br />

HISTORICAL EVIDENCE FOR THE 19-YR CYCLES<br />

From the Annals of Loch Ce, we know that the summer<br />

of 1252 and 1253 was so dry that people crossed the<br />

river Shannon to Ireland without getting their feet wet. This<br />

matches the conditions of 1975-76, which have been the<br />

worst drought in England and Wales since rainfall records<br />

began.. <strong>The</strong> difference is 722 years, almost exactly thirtyeight<br />

19 year cycles.<br />

In between (nearly sixteen 19 year cycles later) was<br />

the Great Fire of London in 1666, which was a period so<br />

dry that the River Thames was just a trickle.<br />

In NZ a severe drought occurred in Otago, in the South<br />

Island in 1982. It was repeated in 1999, almost one cycle<br />

later. Each time it was described as the worst in living<br />

memory. Rather than any momentous shift in the world’s<br />

climate, it is far more likely to be an indication of the fallibility<br />

of the living memory.<br />

<strong>The</strong>re is no doubt that looking back to old records<br />

works. Some alternative forecasters latch onto just one<br />

system that works for them – they adjust it in their mind<br />

slowly over time with careful observation once they get a<br />

basic framework. One often encounters farmers, surveyors,<br />

mountaineers, fishermen and foresters who are legendary<br />

forecasters in their own environments. <strong>The</strong>y swear by<br />

what they have come to know and rely on.<br />

4. CHECK OUT THE WIND<br />

According to ‘Buys Ballot’s Law’, dating back to<br />

1857, when the wind is blowing on your back, the low<br />

pressure(bad weather coming) is always on your left hand<br />

157

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