Lisø PhD Dissertation Manuscript - NTNU

different strategies: risk-based, precautionary and discursive.
The choice of strategy is strongly dependent
on the characteristics of the risk at hand. Facing the
future risks of climate change, it is suggested that a flexible
approach using a combination of these strategies
can help reduce potential impacts. Reducing the potential
for defects or damage through the development of
technical and organizational preventive measures (a
risk-based management strategy), while at the same
time applying the precautionary principle (from the
risk class ‘Pythia’) and discursive strategies in the
design, construction and geographical localization of
buildings, is likely to increase the robustness of the
built environment in light of the unknown risks of
climate change. A complementary approach to the
risk-based, precautionary and discursive risk-management
strategies could be to employ Bayesian
methods, especially where sufficient regional information
has been obtained.
For the described approach to risk management of
future climate change impacts to be successful, it is
necessary to ensure careful cooperation along vertical
decision-making lines, i.e. from government regulatory
bodies via local regulatory bodies and inhabitants,
research communities and company management to
the craftsmen on site.
A successful implementation of adaptation policies at
the national level is dependent on a few key institutions’
ability to initiate both government regulatory
measures and local-level collective efforts to reduce
climate vulnerability. In Norway, this would be the
Directorate for Civil Protection and Emergency Planning
and the National Office of Building Technology
and Administration. NBI, as an independent institution
developing technical guidelines that reaches
out to almost all actors in the construction industry,
and academic institutions such as the NTNU also
have an important role to play in the development
of strategies aimed at building awareness of the
future risks of climate change and in the development
of precautionary and cost–beneficial adaptation
measures.
Acknowledgements
The paper was written within the ongoing NBI
Research &Development Programme ‘Climate 2000
– Building Constructions in a More Severe Climate’
(2000–05), Strategic Institute Project ‘Impact of
Climate Change on the Built Environment’. The
author gratefully acknowledges all construction industry
partners and the Research Council of Norway. A
special thanks to Jan Hovden for fruitful discussions
on risk management, and to Jan Vincent Thue, Viggo
Nordvik, Tore Kvande and four anonymous BRI
referees for valuable comments on the text.
Integrated approach to risk management of future climate change impacts
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