Lisø PhD Dissertation Manuscript - NTNU

on the impacts of different climatic parameters on
building envelope performance will lead to a more
climate-adapted design in new construction, and also
to a more robust performance of existing buildings.
The potential benefits or adverse implications of
climate change on the building stock can be addressed
at different levels (Nordvik and Lisø, 2004):
. How will the performance and cost of operating of
existing buildings be affected by climate change if
the buildings are kept unaltered?
. How should existing buildings be adapted to
changes in climatic impact? At what costs can
this be done, and when should it be done?
. How will the technical and economical lifetime of
buildings be affected by climate change?
. How will the choice of technology, materials and
design in new construction be affected?
. How will the time path of the level of new construction
be affected?
Nordvik and Lisø (2004) use tools from economic
theory to develop a stylized and abstract model of the
decisions of a building owner facing an uncertain evolution
of the climate. This is done through the use of a
putty-clay model (i.e. building characteristics can only
be changed through major economic efforts such as retrofitting
or alterations once they are erected). Using the
real options approach to building economics, it is
found that uncertainty about which climate regimes
will prevail in the future enhances the profitability of
actions which increases future flexibility. The real
options approach starts from the fact that choices
today affect (and sometimes determine) the set of
future choice alternatives and their profitability.
Hence, a positively valued real option may be a part
of the pay-off of an immediate action. This is related
to the precautionary principle as it explicitly treats
the link between present choices and future possibilities
– or options. It is argued that uncertainties
related to potential impacts of future climate change
in fact can reduce maintenance, reconstruction and
the occurrence of scrapping of buildings. Hence,
future climate uncertainty can in fact increase the economic
lifetime of a building. This example illustrates the
complexity of the challenge at hand.
Efforts made to increase the robustness and sustainability
of the built environment must be addressed
both at the regulatory and the operative levels. The
latter requires the introduction of risk-management
models that focus on the behaviour psychology of the
different actors in the construction process. The reaction
of individuals to external influences is of major
Integrated approach to risk management of future climate change impacts
importance when addressing risk management and
climate change, which is a vast topic that clearly
needs more research. Rasmussen (1997) states that
the behaviour of a dynamic socio-technical system
(i.e. the built environment) cannot be represented in
terms of task sequences and errors, referring to a
‘correct’ or ‘rational’ performance. Furthermore, he
concludes that task analysis focused on action
sequences and occasional deviation in terms of
human errors should be replaced by a model of behaviour-shaping
mechanisms in terms of work system
constraints, boundaries of acceptable performance
and subjective criteria guiding adaptation to change.
This approach, based on multidisciplinary research
on industrial risk management, might also be beneficial
for the development of adaptation strategies to meet
the unknown risks of future climate change.
Raising awareness of climate change: a key
discursive strategy
The ways in which the construction industry interacts
with other sectors (as well as interactions between political,
social and economic processes at large) clearly
needs further understanding. The Norwegian government
has regulated the insurance market by establishing
a risk-pooling mechanism in the case of natural
perils, including climatically triggered extreme events.
Although the Norwegian Pool of Natural Perils
addresses collective security and insurance, no
climate change-related measures exist that target the
underlying causes of sensitivity and coping capacity,
or any of the factors constraining institutional capacity
to effectuate adaptation (Lisø et al., 2003). Factors that
need to be considered are, for example, institutional fit,
the interaction between institutions, goal conflicts and
power relations, government incentive structures, competing
concerns within institutions (Næss, 2002), and
the responsibility of the academic teaching
environment.
The Norwegian University of Science and Technology
(NTNU) and NBI envisages the development of a
field of expertise in which wide-ranging knowledge
about meteorology, climatology, atmospheric science,
architecture (building practice) and construction technology
is carefully integrated, and it aims to ensure
the construction of reliable, climate-adapted buildings
and built environments in the future. The challenge of
future climate change necessitates academic institutions
with long-term strategies on the education of
engineers and architects. Raising awareness of this
challenge not only make would the actors in the construction
industry able to reduce adverse impacts of
climate change, but also would lead to a better understanding
of the need for local climate adaptation of
buildings and other infrastructure.
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