Lisø PhD Dissertation Manuscript - NTNU

LisÖ
Introduction
At present, building design codes, standards and operational
procedures are based on historic weather data.
The existing building stock in the next few decades is
likely to be exposed to significantly different climatic
strains compared with today due to climate change.
We are venturing into the unknown with climate,
and its associated impacts could be quite disruptive.
(Karl and Trenberth, 2003, p. 1719)
The present paper discusses the use of modern riskmanagement
theories as a basis for the development
of cross-disciplinary strategies to meet the challenges
of future climate change within the built environment.
First, climate vulnerability and adaptation are discussed
in general. Next, a point of departure for the
support of decision-making aimed at reducing climate
vulnerability in the built environment is suggested
using established risk-management strategies and
Norway as a starting point. Finally, possible ways of
supporting decision-making aimed at ensuring sustainable
buildings are suggested by applying a flexible combination
of risk-based, precautionary and discursive
risk-management strategies.
Climate change
Modern climate change is now dominated by human
influences large enough to be compared with the
bounds of natural variability, the main source of
global climate change being human-induced changes
in atmospheric composition (Karl and Trenberth,
2003). Man-induced climate change can be avoided
in the long-term only by reducing global emissions of
greenhouse gases to a fraction of present levels within
one or two centuries (Hasselmann et al., 2003).
Regional changes in climate, particularly increases in
temperature, have already affected several physical
and biological systems in many parts of the world,
e.g. the shrinkage of glaciers, the thawing of the permafrost,
and the lengthening of mid- to high-latitude
growing seasons (McCarthy et al., 2001). Measures
aimed at halting global climate change through greenhouse
gas mitigation options need to overcome many
technical, economic, political, cultural, social, behavioural
and/or institutional barriers that prevent the
full exploitation of the technical, economic and social
opportunities of these mitigation options (Metz et al.,
2001).
The possible effects of climate change, and the subject
of risk management, adaptation and mitigation, are
now being addressed in several parts of the world.
Challenges confronting the built environment in
responding to the potential impacts of climate change
were one of the main themes in a special issue of
2
Building Research &Information (31[3–4]; 2003)
(Du Plessis et al., 2003; Hertin et al., 2003; Larsson,
2003; Lisø et al., 2003; Mills, 2003; Sanders and Phillipson,
2003; Shimoda, 2003; Steemers, 2003). An
overview of Norwegian climate policies, climate
change scenarios, potential impacts (including
impacts on building performance) and practical implications
of preparing Norway for climate change is
presented by Lisø et al. (2003) and O’Brien et al.
(2004). Another special issue of Building Research
&Information (32[5]; 2004) presents new research
on managing risks from natural hazards (Comerio,
2004; Spence, 2004; Spence and Kelman, 2004;
White, 2004).
Norway’s climate is extremely varied, the rugged topography
being one of the main reasons for large local
differences in temperature, precipitation and wind
speed over short distances. The country’s long coastline
and steep topography make it particularly prone to
extreme events such as coastal storms, avalanches
and landslides. Regional scenarios for climate change
over the next 50 years in Norway indicate an increased
risk from extreme weather. Together with a warmer
climate, especially during the winter, an increased
risk for intense precipitation over parts of coastal
Norway and more frequent incidents of strong winds
along the coast of the two northernmost counties and
off the coast are estimated. These scenarios, emanating
from the project ‘Regional Climate Development
Under Global Warming (RegClim)’, 1 are downscaled
from a global climate model run by the Max-Planck
Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg, Germany.
There are several sources of uncertainties related to
both scenarios for global climate change and to the
effects of global warming on regional-level climate.
The regional scenarios should not be considered as
‘forecasts’, but rather as an indication on the likely
range and nature of future weather scenarios (Lisø
et al., 2003).
Climate vulnerability and adaptive capacity
Key challenges
Norway’s vulnerability is likely to be influenced by
impacts from global-scale climate change, even
though the country is considered to have a high adaptive
capacity based on macro-level indicators such as
wealth, technology, information, skills, infrastructure,
institutions, equity, empowerment and the ability to
spread risk (McCarthy et al., 2001; Yohe and Tol,
2002; O’Brien et al., 2004). However, few studies
have demonstrated that these factors will actually
lead to successful adaptation in Norway (Lisø et al.,
2003). Regional- and local-level assessments indicate
that climate change will entail considerable challenges
to some regions and social groups (O’Brien et al.,
2004). Investigations carried out by the Norwegian
Building Research Institute (NBI) indicate that the