Lisø PhD Dissertation Manuscript - NTNU

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774 Nordvik and Lisø probably to allow for stochastic damages. The probability of damages occurring will vary between different climate change scenarios, and with actions taken by the owner: For example through the choice of the fixed component, W. In principle, the model can handle a multiplicity of damages. The ‘robustness’ of the Norwegian building stock will also be addressed as part of the programme. One important area of investigation will be the development of methods for classifying different climatic parameters and their impact on building enclosure performance. The work will include the preparation of a thorough overview of the relevant climate variables that should be taken into account during the planning, design and construction of building enclosures in various parts of Norway. This work will create a basis for further development of our analytical framework. It is preferable to analyse the effect of climate uncertainty under a multi-period setting where information on climate change under global warming evolve over time. Some of our conclusions will probably be altered under an infinite time horizon. Qualitatively the conclusions will hold. What we get under our three-period setting is a stylized picture of the first part of a path of effects. In addition, under a longer time-horizon, the real options will exist. One simple way to start an empirical analysis of the factors analysed here is to single out one class of buildings that are heavily exposed to certain impacts of climate change and analyse maintenance and conversion activities undertaken in these buildings. Possible candidates for such an investigation are buildings that are exposed to increased probabilities of precipitation, flooding or extreme wind loads. Concluding remarks In this paper, we have developed a highly stylized and abstract model of the decisions of a building owner facing an uncertain evolvement of the climate. A nonsympathetic reading of the paper will lead to a question of whether it only consists of an endless row of manipulations of symbols leading nowhere. This is not our conclusion. On the contrary, we believe that the model describes important aspects of the decisions that are taken, and that it identifies the determinants of the decisions. As discussed in the paragraph on further work there is still a lot of theoretical work to be done in analysing these structures. However, even at this early stage hypotheses for empirical work can be extracted. The model shows that the decisions are affected by both the expected profitability of the different actions and the effects the actions have on the profitability of future choices. Hence, using a real option approach enhances our understanding of actions taken by owners of buildings. Some simple results are derived. Climate change can reduce both conversion activities and the occurrence of scrapping of buildings. Hence, future climate uncertainty can increase the economic lifetime of a building. Furthermore, given that a building is ‘continued in ordinary use’, less effort will be put into maintenance. It is also argued that measures of the building related costs of different impacts of climate change on building enclosure performance should be based on an analysis of expected adaptation measures. Throughout the paper, we have discussed the interdependencies between potential implications of climate change and the behaviour of building owners. The model has a wider applicability. Structures and mechanisms discussed are also relevant for other parts of the built environment. Even though much substance is extracted from the analysis, we point towards important adaptations and extensions of the analytical apparatus that calls for further research. Hence, this paper can really be said to be a primer. We find it of significant importance to put effort into production of a coat of primer before putting on the main paint. Acknowledgements This paper has been written within the ongoing NBI Research & Development Programme ‘Climate 2000 – Building constructions in a more severe climate’ (2000– 2006), strategic project ‘Impact of climate change on the built environment’. Valuable comments from the referees of the journal helped us improve the paper. References Camilleri, M. Jacques, R. and Isaacs, N. (2001) Impacts of climate change on building performance in New Zealand. Building Research & Information, 29(6), 440–50. Førsund, F. (1981) Årgangsmodellen. Memorandum, University of Oslo, Department of Economics, p. 262 [in Norwegian]. Førsund, F. (1984) Om kvasirente. Reprint series 262, University of Oslo, Department of Economics [in Norwegian]. Graves, H.M. and Phillipson, M.C. (2000) Potential implications of climate change in the built environment, BRE Centre for Environmental Engineering/BRE East Kilbride, FBE Report 2 December 2000, Construction Research Communications. Johansen, L. (1972) Production functions: an integration of micro and macro, short run and long run aspects, North-Holland, Amsterdam. Lisø, K.R. and Kvande, T. (2004) Climate 2000 – Building constructions in a more severe climate – Programme 2000–2006,
Building economics of climate change Programme Description, NBI Report O 10210-99, Norwegian Building Research Institute, Oslo. Lisø, K.R., Aandahl, G., Eriksen, S. and Alfsen, K.H. (2003a) Preparing for climate change impacts in Norway’s built environment. Building Research & Information, 31(3/4), 200–9. Lisø, K.R., Time, B., Kvande, T. and Førland, E.J. (2003b) Building enclosure performance in a more severe climate, in Carmeliet, J. et al. (eds) Research in Building Physics – Proc. of the 2 nd International Conference on Building Physics, A.A. Balkema Publishers, Lisse, pp. 309–17. 775 Moene, K.O. (1984) Investments and fluctuations, optimal putty-clay investments under uncertain business prospects. Memorandum no. 9, 1984, Department of Economics, University of Oslo. O’Brien, K., Sygna, L. and Haugerv, J.E. (2004) Vulnerable or resilient? A multiscale assessment of climate impacts and vulnerability in Norway. Climatic Change, 64(1–2), 193–225. Rothschild, M. and Stiglitz, J. (1976) Equilibrium in competitive insurance markets: an essay on the economics of imperfect information. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 80, 629–49.
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Building envelope performance asses
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Lisø, K.R./ Building envelope perf
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The hurricane (Beaufort number 12)
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The extensive revisions of the code
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The number of buildings investigate
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As is apparent from the values in t
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climate change is now dominated by
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TABLE 3. Summary of findings Struct
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temperature of -4°C or less. See F
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Today, frost resistance of brick, c
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degree of saturation, freezing will
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accelerated frost damage or frost d
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A possible objection to the present
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[17] Dührkop H., Saretok V., Sneck
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Decay potential in wood structures
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Wood decaying fungi will only be ac
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to promote decay prevails. Two of t
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Acknowledgements This paper has bee
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(a driving rain gauge), however, is
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Fig. 1. Map of Norwayshowing the lo
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Frequency 25 20 15 10 5 0 highest p
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interesting to compare those result
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Effects of wind exposure on roof sn
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In ISO 4355 ”Bases for design of
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variety of roofs and wind exposures
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Li and Pomeroy [13] evaluated hourl
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Fig. 5. Exposure coefficients for 3
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meteorological stations are expecte
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Many of the meteorological stations
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the ground with return period of 30
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References [1] Standards Norway. De
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