Lisø PhD Dissertation Manuscript - NTNU

774 Nordvik and Lisø
probably to allow for stochastic damages. The probability
of damages occurring will vary between different
climate change scenarios, and with actions taken by the
owner: For example through the choice of the fixed
component, W. In principle, the model can handle a
multiplicity of damages.
The ‘robustness’ of the Norwegian building stock will
also be addressed as part of the programme. One important
area of investigation will be the development of
methods for classifying different climatic parameters
and their impact on building enclosure performance.
The work will include the preparation of a thorough
overview of the relevant climate variables that should
be taken into account during the planning, design and
construction of building enclosures in various parts
of Norway. This work will create a basis for further
development of our analytical framework.
It is preferable to analyse the effect of climate uncertainty
under a multi-period setting where information
on climate change under global warming evolve over
time. Some of our conclusions will probably be altered
under an infinite time horizon. Qualitatively the conclusions
will hold. What we get under our three-period
setting is a stylized picture of the first part of a path
of effects. In addition, under a longer time-horizon, the
real options will exist.
One simple way to start an empirical analysis of the
factors analysed here is to single out one class of buildings
that are heavily exposed to certain impacts of climate
change and analyse maintenance and conversion
activities undertaken in these buildings. Possible candidates
for such an investigation are buildings that are
exposed to increased probabilities of precipitation,
flooding or extreme wind loads.
Concluding remarks
In this paper, we have developed a highly stylized and
abstract model of the decisions of a building owner
facing an uncertain evolvement of the climate. A nonsympathetic
reading of the paper will lead to a question
of whether it only consists of an endless row of manipulations
of symbols leading nowhere. This is not our
conclusion. On the contrary, we believe that the model
describes important aspects of the decisions that are
taken, and that it identifies the determinants of the decisions.
As discussed in the paragraph on further work
there is still a lot of theoretical work to be done in
analysing these structures. However, even at this early
stage hypotheses for empirical work can be extracted.
The model shows that the decisions are affected
by both the expected profitability of the different actions
and the effects the actions have on the profitability
of future choices. Hence, using a real option approach
enhances our understanding of actions taken by owners
of buildings. Some simple results are derived. Climate
change can reduce both conversion activities and the
occurrence of scrapping of buildings. Hence, future
climate uncertainty can increase the economic lifetime
of a building. Furthermore, given that a building is
‘continued in ordinary use’, less effort will be put into
maintenance. It is also argued that measures of the
building related costs of different impacts of climate
change on building enclosure performance should be
based on an analysis of expected adaptation measures.
Throughout the paper, we have discussed the interdependencies
between potential implications of climate
change and the behaviour of building owners. The
model has a wider applicability. Structures and mechanisms
discussed are also relevant for other parts of the
built environment. Even though much substance is
extracted from the analysis, we point towards important
adaptations and extensions of the analytical apparatus
that calls for further research. Hence, this paper can
really be said to be a primer. We find it of significant
importance to put effort into production of a coat of
primer before putting on the main paint.
Acknowledgements
This paper has been written within the ongoing NBI
Research & Development Programme ‘Climate 2000 –
Building constructions in a more severe climate’ (2000–
2006), strategic project ‘Impact of climate change on
the built environment’. Valuable comments from the
referees of the journal helped us improve the paper.
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