Lisø PhD Dissertation Manuscript - NTNU

Construction Management and Economics (September 2004) 22, 765–775
A primer on the building economics of climate change
VIGGO NORDVIK 1 * and KIM ROBERT LISØ 1,2
1Norwegian Building Research Institute (NBI), PO Box 123 Blindern, N-0314, Oslo, Norway
2Department of Civil and Transport Engineering, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU),
NO-7491 Trondheim, Norway
Received 21 August 2003; accepted 12 March 2004
Climate change will entail new conditions for the construction industry. Knowledge about the implications of
climate change on the built environment will be of the utmost importance to the industry in years to come. A
building is a ‘long lasting’ durable asset that is changed over time due to exogenously imposed strains and by
actions. The built environment has an expected lifetime varying from 60 to more than 100 years. Hence, the
building economics of climate change should be treated within a dynamic analytical framework that explicitly
allows for changes in the information sets over time. The building stock of the future consists of the building
stock of today and of new construction. In the future, parts of the present building stock will be adapted to
changes in the environment, while some parts will be kept as they are. Analysis of how building stock is affected
by future climate change should handle this diversity. This can be done through the use of a putty-clay model.
Uncertainty of what kind of climate regimes will prevail in the future enhances the profitability of actions that
increase future flexibility. Hence, the real option approach to building economics is utilized.
Keywords: Building economics, global warming, climate change, putty-clay, real options, building stock,
building enclosure performance
Introduction
Empirical observations and modelling increasingly
point to global warming and long-term changes in
the climate system. The Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change concludes that most of the warming
observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human
activities, and that anthropogenic climate change is
likely to persist for many centuries. The ability to
respond to climatic change in terms of averting negative
consequences and capitalizing on any potential benefits
arising from it is central to managing vulnerability (Lisø
et al., 2003a).
Climatic impact from precipitation, wind, temperature
and exposure to the sun causes extensive degradation
and damage to the built environment every year.
This can be related to variations over normal everyday
impact from different climate parameters, and it can be
related to more extreme and less frequent climatic
*Author for correspondence. E-mail: viggo.nordvik@byggforsk.no
events. Climatic impacts affect operating costs and
maintenance. The design of building enclosures should
be expected to be the result of choices based on optimally
utilized information and knowledge on both
building technology and the different impacts the buildings
are exposed to. An increase in the knowledge
about, and focus on, the impacts of different climatic
parameters on building enclosure performance will lead
to a more climate-adapted design in new construction.
Utilization of this kind of knowledge also gives a potential
for a more robust performance of existing buildings.
A more focused attention on climatic impact will also
contribute to a higher level of reliability in buildings,
extended lifetime, reduced administration, damage and
maintenance costs through correct planning and design.
The design of one single building is primarily affected
by the stock of knowledge at the point in time where the
building was erected. However, buildings are adapted,
maintained and rehabilitated over time. Hence, the
present state of a building will also be affected by knowledge,
both on building technology and expected strains,
which has arrived during the time after completion.
Construction Management and Economics
ISSN 0144-6193 print/ISSN 1466-433X online © 2004 Taylor & Francis Ltd
http://www.tandf.co.uk/journals
DOI: 10.1080/0144619042000213256