Lisø PhD Dissertation Manuscript - NTNU

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Introduction Empirical observations and modelling increasingly point to global warming and long-term changes in the climate system. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concludes that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities, and that anthropogenic climate change is likely to persist for many centuries. Adapting to the impacts of climate change thus represents a key challenge for researchers and policy-makers in the coming years (McCarthy et al., 2001). Norway is exposed to a harsh climate and many facets of Norwegian society are, and will continue to be, affected by both climatic events and future climatic changes. The ability to respond to climatic change in terms of averting negative consequences and capitalising on any potential benefits arising from it is central to managing vulnerability in Norway. Adaptation here refers to the adjustments needed to take account of changing climate conditions in order to reduce vulnerability. In this paper, it is argued that measures aimed at adjustments in individual sectors, such as alterations of technical regulations and building standards, constitute only a partial adaptation to climate change. In order for adaptation to be effective, however, larger societal and intersectoral adjustments are also necessary. This is demonstrated through examining climate change adaptation in Norway, focusing specifically on the built environment. First, Norwegian climate policy is briefly reviewed and the envisaged climatic changes in Norway due to global warming over the next 50 years are described. Fifty years is, of course, a relatively short period in a climate change context. The main reason for focusing on the next 50 years is that detailed studies of regional climate change have been undertaken for this period. It should be recognised, however, that it appears likely that climate change will accelerate after 2050 with current trends in emission of greenhouse gases. This observation reinforces the main conclusions of the paper. Next, climate vulnerability in the Norwegian context is explained, focusing in particular on the relationship between physical exposure, sensitivity, coping capacity and vulnerability, and the implications for approaches to adaptation. This is followed by an overview of the challenges concerning possible impacts of climate change on building performance to exemplify the sensitivity of a specific sector. Finally, several possible adaptation policies are suggested for Norway in general, and for the construction industry specifically. We conclude that research and policy-making in Norway need to address sectoral issues as part of larger societal issues in order to foster the development of necessary adaptation strategies. Norway’s built environment Norwegian climate policy In response to the threat of global climate change, several government policy initiatives aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions in Norway have emerged. Following the politically ‘charged’ summer of 1988 and the Toronto declaration, and in the run up to the Rio conference in 1992, the Norwegian parliament established as a preliminary target that Norwegian CO 2 emissions be stabilised at their 1989 levels no later than 2000. As an initial step toward this target, a CO 2 tax was introduced in 1991 covering the majority (approximately 60%) of national emissions, including the large petroleum activity-related sources in the North Sea. Export-oriented and power-intensive industry emission sources were exempted from the tax. Although the tax rate was differentiated among sources, it was relatively high for the petroleum sector, the service sector and for individual households (approximately US$50 per ton of CO 2 emitted). The intention at the time of the introduction of the tax was to extend the scope and rate of the tax in tune with developments at the international level. As it turned out, little if anything happened internationally. In light of this inaction, the national target was abolished a few years after its establishment. The original CO 2 tax structure was retained, however, mainly for revenue reasons. A new initiative in Norwegian climate policy was taken following Norway’s signing of the Kyoto Protocol in late 1997, when the government advanced a proposal to widen substantially the tax base of the CO 2 tax. However, this proposal was not approved by parliament, which instead called for the introduction of a national emission quota trading system (cap and trade). After first a green and then a white paper, successive governments eventually produced a proposal for the early introduction of a national emission quota trading regime for those sectors previously exempted from the CO2 tax, while enforcing the existing CO2 tax for the sectors already covered. Such a proposal would allow for a smooth linkage to an eventual internal European Union (EU) emissions trading system. The national trading system was approved by parliament in the summer of 2002 and it is expected to be operational as of 2005. Should the Kyoto Protocol enter into force, it is expected that a full quota trading system excluding the CO 2 tax will be operational from the beginning of the first commitment period in 2008. A number of additional, but substantially smaller, measures have also been introduced in the Norwegian climate policy over the years. A tax on waste disposal is one such example. Most energy-efficiency measures are also presently classified as climate policy. Although the government has been relatively proactive in instituting measures aimed at halting global climate change, comparatively little attention has been paid to the potential effects of climate change on Norway and 201
LisÖ et al. on how to cope with and address these. The government white paper on climate (Ministry of the Environment, 2001), for example, does not discuss adaptation. A later addition to the white paper (Ministry of the Environment, 2002) indicates that while the government has a role in research, in disseminating information and in strengthening expertise, planning and developing measures are the responsibility of individual sectors and of regional and local authorities. At present, therefore, there is no conscious holistic adaptation policy at the national level. Climate change in Norway Climate change scenarios Global warming is likely to lead to changes in the local climate in Norway. The impacts of local climate changes may necessitate adjustments and thus deserve policy attention. Climate scenarios for Norway emanating from the project ‘Regional climate development under global warming (RegClim)’ (www.nilu.no/regclim) (Figures 1 and 2) suggest changes in mean and extreme values of temperature, precipitation and wind. The scenarios are downscaled from a global climate model run by the Max-Planck Institute, assuming a 1% p.a. increase in CO2 concentrations from 1990, estimating a near doubling in 2050. The downscaled scenarios indicate increasing temperatures across the country. Consistent with emerging global patterns, the projected temperature increases are at a maximum during the winter and at a minimum during the summer, and warming rates increase from south to north and from coast to inland. The mean winter temperature may increase by approximately 2 C in the northern areas of the country over the next 50 years. Generally, the stabilising influence of the ocean leads to the inland changes being greater than in the coastal areas. Precipitation scenarios for Norway conform to those at the global scale in that we see increased precipitation in existing wet areas and periods. Thus, in parts of Western Norway (including the Bergen region), the scenarios indicate that there will be an additional two days per year with daily precipitation exceeding 50 mm. The RegClim scenarios suggest a moderate increase in wind in the southernmost areas and along the coast of Central Norway, with most of the increase manifesting itself during the autumn and winter months. The mean winter temperature may increase by approximately 2 C in the northern areas Figure 1 Empirically downscaled scenario showing the increase in winter temperature (winter ¼ December^February). Values are the di¡erence between the 2020^49 and 1961^90 periods and are given as change in C per decade 202
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BUILDING RESEARCH &INFORMATION (JAN
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greater variations (Lisø et al., 2
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Typical problem areas and recommend
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Figure 3b Recommended design of win
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Figure 7 Example showing the recomm
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Figure 11a Poor solution for a £as
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Acknowledgements This paper was wri
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Climate adapted design of masonry s
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2. Masonry defects in Norway 2.1. S
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Fig. 2. Example illustrations of th
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The presented results are in good a
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appropriate in a more severe type o
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screen in a two-stage weatherproofi
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INCREASED SNOW LOADS AND WIND ACTIO
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The hurricane (Beaufort number 12)
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The extensive revisions of the code
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The number of buildings investigate
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As is apparent from the values in t
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climate change is now dominated by
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TABLE 3. Summary of findings Struct
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Lisø, K.R./ Building envelope perf
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temperature of -4°C or less. See F
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Today, frost resistance of brick, c
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degree of saturation, freezing will
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accelerated frost damage or frost d
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A possible objection to the present
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[17] Dührkop H., Saretok V., Sneck
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Decay potential in wood structures
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Wood decaying fungi will only be ac
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to promote decay prevails. Two of t
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Acknowledgements This paper has bee
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(a driving rain gauge), however, is
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Fig. 1. Map of Norwayshowing the lo
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Frequency 25 20 15 10 5 0 highest p
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interesting to compare those result
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Effects of wind exposure on roof sn
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In ISO 4355 ”Bases for design of
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variety of roofs and wind exposures
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Li and Pomeroy [13] evaluated hourl
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Fig. 5. Exposure coefficients for 3
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meteorological stations are expecte
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Many of the meteorological stations
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the ground with return period of 30
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References [1] Standards Norway. De
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