Lisø PhD Dissertation Manuscript - NTNU

Introduction
Empirical observations and modelling increasingly
point to global warming and long-term changes in the
climate system. The Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change concludes that most of the warming
observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human
activities, and that anthropogenic climate change is
likely to persist for many centuries. Adapting to the
impacts of climate change thus represents a key challenge
for researchers and policy-makers in the coming
years (McCarthy et al., 2001). Norway is exposed to
a harsh climate and many facets of Norwegian society
are, and will continue to be, affected by both climatic
events and future climatic changes. The ability to
respond to climatic change in terms of averting negative
consequences and capitalising on any potential benefits
arising from it is central to managing vulnerability in
Norway. Adaptation here refers to the adjustments
needed to take account of changing climate conditions
in order to reduce vulnerability.
In this paper, it is argued that measures aimed at
adjustments in individual sectors, such as alterations
of technical regulations and building standards, constitute
only a partial adaptation to climate change. In
order for adaptation to be effective, however, larger
societal and intersectoral adjustments are also necessary.
This is demonstrated through examining climate
change adaptation in Norway, focusing specifically
on the built environment.
First, Norwegian climate policy is briefly reviewed and
the envisaged climatic changes in Norway due to global
warming over the next 50 years are described.
Fifty years is, of course, a relatively short period in a
climate change context. The main reason for focusing
on the next 50 years is that detailed studies of regional
climate change have been undertaken for this period. It
should be recognised, however, that it appears likely
that climate change will accelerate after 2050 with current
trends in emission of greenhouse gases. This observation
reinforces the main conclusions of the paper.
Next, climate vulnerability in the Norwegian context is
explained, focusing in particular on the relationship
between physical exposure, sensitivity, coping capacity
and vulnerability, and the implications for approaches
to adaptation. This is followed by an overview of
the challenges concerning possible impacts of climate
change on building performance to exemplify the
sensitivity of a specific sector.
Finally, several possible adaptation policies are suggested
for Norway in general, and for the construction
industry specifically. We conclude that research and
policy-making in Norway need to address sectoral
issues as part of larger societal issues in order to foster
the development of necessary adaptation strategies.
Norway’s built environment
Norwegian climate policy
In response to the threat of global climate change, several
government policy initiatives aimed at reducing
greenhouse gas emissions in Norway have emerged.
Following the politically ‘charged’ summer of 1988 and
the Toronto declaration, and in the run up to the Rio
conference in 1992, the Norwegian parliament established
as a preliminary target that Norwegian CO 2
emissions be stabilised at their 1989 levels no later than
2000. As an initial step toward this target, a CO 2 tax
was introduced in 1991 covering the majority (approximately
60%) of national emissions, including the large
petroleum activity-related sources in the North Sea.
Export-oriented and power-intensive industry emission
sources were exempted from the tax. Although the tax
rate was differentiated among sources, it was relatively
high for the petroleum sector, the service sector and for
individual households (approximately US$50 per ton of
CO 2 emitted). The intention at the time of the introduction
of the tax was to extend the scope and rate of the
tax in tune with developments at the international level.
As it turned out, little if anything happened internationally.
In light of this inaction, the national target
was abolished a few years after its establishment. The
original CO 2 tax structure was retained, however,
mainly for revenue reasons.
A new initiative in Norwegian climate policy was taken
following Norway’s signing of the Kyoto Protocol in
late 1997, when the government advanced a proposal
to widen substantially the tax base of the CO 2 tax.
However, this proposal was not approved by parliament,
which instead called for the introduction of a
national emission quota trading system (cap and
trade). After first a green and then a white paper, successive
governments eventually produced a proposal
for the early introduction of a national emission quota
trading regime for those sectors previously exempted
from the CO2 tax, while enforcing the existing CO2 tax
for the sectors already covered. Such a proposal would
allow for a smooth linkage to an eventual internal
European Union (EU) emissions trading system. The
national trading system was approved by parliament
in the summer of 2002 and it is expected to be operational
as of 2005. Should the Kyoto Protocol enter into
force, it is expected that a full quota trading system
excluding the CO 2 tax will be operational from the
beginning of the first commitment period in 2008.
A number of additional, but substantially smaller,
measures have also been introduced in the Norwegian
climate policy over the years. A tax on waste disposal
is one such example. Most energy-efficiency measures
are also presently classified as climate policy.
Although the government has been relatively proactive
in instituting measures aimed at halting global climate
change, comparatively little attention has been paid to
the potential effects of climate change on Norway and
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