Lisø PhD Dissertation Manuscript - NTNU

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Figure 1 Climate index map for Norway: relative potential for decay in Norwegian wood structures based on Scheffer’s climate index formula. Weather data for the reference 30-year period 1961–1990 is used. The highest annual temperatures in Norway can be found in the coastal areas of the southern and western part of the country. When excluding uninhabited mountain areas, the coldest area throughout the year is the Finnmark Plateau. The largest normal annual precipitation is found some miles from the coast of Western Norway. The inner part of Østlandet, the Finnmark Plateau, and some smaller areas near the Swedish border, are all lee areas in relation to the large weather systems mainly coming from the west. Common for these areas is the low annual precipitation and that showery precipitation during summer is the largest contributor. As can be seen from Figure 1, the two northernmost counties (Tromsø and Finnmark), some areas in Nordland County near the Swedish border and the mountainous areas in southern Norway have the least favourable conditions for decay. Medium decay risk is found in the remaining and most densely populated parts of the country, except for the exposed coastal areas of the western part of the country where climate conditions most likely Page 4 of 7
to promote decay prevails. Two of the largest cities in the country, Stavanger and Bergen, are situated in this high-risk area. Table 1 Decay risk index values for eight selected locations (monthly values and year total) for the reference 30-year period 1961-1990, and a scenario index value (year total) for the period 2021-2050. Location Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Index Tchange Index 61-90 (°C/decade) 21-50 Vardø 0 0 0 0 1 3 5 6 4 1 0 0 20 0.22 27 Karasjok 0 0 0 0 1 6 9 7 3 0 0 0 26 0.46 37 Tromsø 0 0 0 0 2 6 10 8 5 1 0 0 33 0.28 43 Trondheim 0 0 0 2 5 9 12 11 9 4 0 0 52 0.29 66 (Værnes) Røros 0 0 0 0 2 6 8 73 4 0 0 0 28 0.28 36 Bergen 1 0 1 3 7 9 11 12 11 8 4 1 70 0.20 84 Oslo 0 0 0 1 6 9 11 10 7 4 0 0 48 0.25 57 Kristiansand (Oksøy lighthouse) 1 0 1 2 5 6 8 9 9 7 3 1 50 0.21 60 A temperature scenario (Tchange) for climate development under global warming for the selected locations is also provided in Table 1 (derived from Benestad, 2005). The scenario values are based upon the estimated differences in monthly mean temperature between the periods 1961-1990 and 2021-2050, and are given as changes per decade. The most realistic scenarios for changes in global climate are based on coupled atmosphere/ocean/sea-ice General Circulation Models (AOGCM’s) providing a comprehensive representation of the climate system (McCarthy et al., 2001). The spatial resolution in these models is too coarse to reproduce the climate on regional or local scale, not allowing for complex physiography to be considered (e.g. high mountains, deep valleys and fjords). To deduce detailed scenarios for future climate development in different parts of Norway, both dynamic and empirical downscaling techniques are applied on global climate models (GCM) and regional climate models (RCM). Benestad (2005) uses an empirical-statistical analysis for monthly mean temperature for a multi-model ensemble of the most recent climate scenarios (Special Report Emission Scenario A1b) produced for the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Report 4 (AR4). The empiricalstatistical downscaling incorporates local information for the locations, and additional geographical information is utilized in the spatial interpolation of the results. Roughly estimated index values for the next 50 years are provided in Table 1 (for the 30-year reference period 2021-2050). The estimated decadal temperature change from Benestad (2005) is used to adjust the calculated historical values. The precipitation rates are kept unaltered in the calculations, but the scenario index values clearly points towards a pronounced increase in the potential for decay in wood structures at all locations. In general, climate change scenarios also indicate an increase in the average annual precipitation in Norway during the next 50 years, and thus strengthening this trend. The projected precipitation increase rates are generally smallest in southeastern Norway, and largest along the northwestern and western coast. Page 5 of 7
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Building envelope performance asses
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BUILDING RESEARCH &INFORMATION (200
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LisÖ et al. on how to cope with an
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LisÖ et al. the exposure to contin
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LisÖ et al. business premises. The
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LisÖ et al. construction industry
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Research in Building Physics, Carme
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4 CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS FOR NORW
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with large amounts of precipitation
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will most likely be worse, even wit
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Graves, H.M. & Phillipson, M.C. 200
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768 Nordvik and Lisø into the futu
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BUILDING RESEARCH &INFORMATION (200
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cost of repairing process-induced b
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change in quality (Mehus et al., 20
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on the impacts of different climati
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different strategies: risk-based, p
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Learning from experience - an analy
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An important aspect of the programm
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Concrete walls 32 % LECA masonry 10
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construction industry, and academic
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BUILDING RESEARCH &INFORMATION (JAN
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greater variations (Lisø et al., 2
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Typical problem areas and recommend
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Figure 3b Recommended design of win
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Page 105 and 106: Acknowledgements This paper was wri
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Page 119 and 120: INCREASED SNOW LOADS AND WIND ACTIO
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Page 131: TABLE 3. Summary of findings Struct
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Page 160 and 161: Fig. 1. Map of Norwayshowing the lo
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Page 183: References [1] Standards Norway. De
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