PALDISKI - Eesti Kunstiakadeemia / Estonian Academy of Arts
PALDISKI - Eesti Kunstiakadeemia / Estonian Academy of Arts PALDISKI - Eesti Kunstiakadeemia / Estonian Academy of Arts
4 SCENARIOS FOR PALDISKI CREATING STORIES ABOUT THE FUTURE
- Page 2 and 3: PROJECT BY THE URBAN STUDIES DEPART
- Page 4 and 5: SCENARIO PLANNING “The senior man
- Page 6 and 7: WHAT CONCERNS US Around 70% of the
- Page 8: it, at least not as much as it coul
- Page 12 and 13: REFERENCES Garreau, Joel, 1994, “
- Page 14 and 15: THE CHIEF OF POLICE From the local
4 SCENARIOS FOR<br />
<strong>PALDISKI</strong><br />
CREATING STORIES<br />
ABOUT THE FUTURE
PROJECT BY THE URBAN STUDIES DEPARTMENT<br />
ESTONIAN ACADEMY OF ARTS<br />
STUDENTS: MARIS KURME, NAIRA CHILINGARIAN, REGINA VILJASAAR<br />
TUTORS: PROF. PANU LUHTOVUORI, LILIA DEL RIO, KALLE KOMISSAROV<br />
FERUARY - MAY 2007<br />
4 SCENARIOS FOR<br />
<strong>PALDISKI</strong><br />
CREATING STORIES<br />
ABOUT THE FUTURE
CONTENTS<br />
CONTENTS<br />
SCENARIO PLANNING<br />
<strong>PALDISKI</strong><br />
OVERVIEW<br />
WHAT CONCERNS US<br />
<strong>PALDISKI</strong> IN THE MINDS OF ESTONIANS<br />
OUR WORK<br />
CHILDREN - THE FUTURE OF <strong>PALDISKI</strong><br />
<strong>PALDISKI</strong> - A CITY OF FLOWS<br />
MAIN QUESTIONS<br />
UNCERTAINTIES - THE AXIS<br />
CHILDRENS' DRAWINGS<br />
PHOTOS<br />
4 SCENARIOS<br />
CONCLUSIONS<br />
REFERENCES, INTERESTING LINKS<br />
APPENDIX 1 - INTERVIEWS WITH LOCAL ACTORS<br />
APPENDIX 2 - DEMOGRAPHICAL STATISTICS<br />
1<br />
2<br />
3<br />
3<br />
4<br />
4<br />
5<br />
5<br />
5<br />
6<br />
6<br />
8<br />
9<br />
10<br />
15<br />
16<br />
17<br />
19<br />
1
SCENARIO PLANNING<br />
“The senior managers <strong>of</strong> large corporations […] increasingly have to choose the right thing<br />
to do: set a course, steer through the strategic issues that cloud their companies’ horizons”<br />
(Wilkinson).<br />
Developed during the 1990’s as a response to the large number <strong>of</strong> uncertainties in the future<br />
<strong>of</strong> companies, cities and world issues, scenario planning is an efficient tool to understand<br />
the elements that play a key role in decisions taken now, and invariably affect the future.<br />
It is a strategic form <strong>of</strong> planning that aims at discovering the hidden potentials <strong>of</strong> today<br />
and explore them as possibilities and realiti es in the future.<br />
Scenario thinking is best when uncertainty is high, since it aims at recognising trends and<br />
predicting visions <strong>of</strong> reality, based on those critical uncertainties that will in the future play a<br />
key role: “Scenario planning begins by identifying the focal issue or decision. There are an infinite<br />
number <strong>of</strong> stories that we could tell about the future; our purpose is to tell those<br />
that matter, that lead to better decisions” (Wilkinson).<br />
The power <strong>of</strong> scenario planning and strategic thinking lies in its intuitive approach: “This is not<br />
a linear, mechanistic, number driven process, but more <strong>of</strong> a dance and sufficiently intuitive.<br />
Such storytelling allows people to find the most pleasing scenario. Then they can start figuring<br />
out how to make it happen” (Garreau)<br />
“Henry Mintzberg, pr<strong>of</strong>essor <strong>of</strong> management at McGill University, argues that strategy can<br />
only be understood in retrospect, when we are able to analyze and see patterns in what has<br />
actually happened. Most managers do not find this view appealing. They believe there is a<br />
consistent pattern connecting the quality <strong>of</strong> their thinking with their resulting success and failure:<br />
good thinking should improve the chances <strong>of</strong> success - it is highly unsatisfactory to make<br />
big strategic decisions by rolling dice” (Van der Heijden)<br />
The following scenarios are all considered to be equally valuable. There is no one best<br />
or worst scenario, but the real future is an integration <strong>of</strong> the best qualities and practices<br />
<strong>of</strong> all the scenarios. Fleshing out the scenarios brings us to a vision <strong>of</strong> the city <strong>of</strong><br />
Paldiski as it may be played out in today’s decisions.<br />
2
<strong>PALDISKI</strong><br />
OVERVIEW<br />
Paldiski is a small city <strong>of</strong> roughly 4000 inhabitants, situated in the North-Western part <strong>of</strong> Estonia. It<br />
occupies the whole Pakri peninsula and also two islands <strong>of</strong> Big Pakri and Small Pakri. In itself it is<br />
not a very old, Peter the Great founded it in 1718 on the site <strong>of</strong> a small fishing village. Peter’s wish,<br />
however, was to create a sea fortress and the location was good - the bay is very deep and the<br />
sea never freezes in this port, unlike in other <strong>Estonian</strong> harbours. Its name became from Russian<br />
– Baltiiski meant Baltic in Russian language; later it developed to more <strong>Estonian</strong> Paldiski.<br />
In 1939 it became a center for Russian army in Estonia and ever since that time it has had quite a<br />
negative reputation among <strong>Estonian</strong>s and till now the first allusions are gloomy - pollution, Russian<br />
occupation, Russian inhabitants and secrecy that has surrounded it for years. The place could also<br />
look a little bit more reassuring. By now the biggest monument to Russian power has been torn<br />
down – the colossal building <strong>of</strong> Pentagon. Also the army caserns and other military objects are in<br />
an critical state by now, so one might expect them to follow the same fate sooner or later. Most<br />
<strong>of</strong> the sea is closed in by the two ports – North Harbour, which is privately owned, and the South<br />
Harbour that is managed by the Port <strong>of</strong> Tallinn company. These two are the main exonomic activity<br />
supports <strong>of</strong> the Paldiski town, but unfortunately they have also separated the sea and the beach<br />
from the town itself.<br />
3
WHAT CONCERNS US<br />
Around 70% <strong>of</strong> the city’s inhabitants are still Russians and Russian school is somewhat bigger<br />
there than its <strong>Estonian</strong> equivalent. Speaking <strong>of</strong> which – Paldiski is completely dualistic city. They<br />
have two <strong>of</strong> everything there – one for <strong>Estonian</strong>s and one for Russians. Yet the city council chairman,<br />
the police and other administrative people confirm there is no crunch between two nationalities<br />
there. Schoolchildren seem to think the opposite.<br />
Paldiski itself wishes strongly to step up against the negative image it still tends to have in the eyes<br />
<strong>of</strong> outsiders. They are promoting the slogan „The city <strong>of</strong> green energy“ in contrast to the image <strong>of</strong><br />
secrecy, pollution and ugliness, that is still unfortunately prevalent. Indeed, they have magnificent<br />
nature and in the tip <strong>of</strong> the peninsula there is a windmill park they’re planning to expand as well as<br />
a beautiful cliff. Sadly even if people know about it now, they just pass through Paldiski very fast to<br />
see the cliff and then get back, not to stay in Paldiski. About 800 people, which is most <strong>of</strong> the working-age<br />
locals,, commute every day to Tallinn, so most <strong>of</strong> the time this town IS pretty miserable<br />
and backwards. And THIS was exactly why it appeared in our area <strong>of</strong> interest.<br />
<strong>PALDISKI</strong> IN THE MINDS OF ESTONIANS<br />
In our discussions was <strong>of</strong>ten revealed the fact that for many <strong>Estonian</strong>s, the image <strong>of</strong> Paldiski<br />
nowadays is still covered by a dark cloud <strong>of</strong> memories from the Soviet period as a closed, mainly<br />
Russian, town. This backward thinking poses a great disadvantage in planning a bright future for<br />
Paldiski, yet it is presented here also as an opportunity.<br />
It is a matter <strong>of</strong> 2 or 3 generations when memories <strong>of</strong> the Soviet period will not be present in<br />
people’s minds any more. For the coming generations’ sake, it is important to keep monuments<br />
and heritage sites in order to explain history vividly. In our strategic thinking, keeping and restoring<br />
Soviet heritage sites are key for a prosperous development <strong>of</strong> Paldiski by a conscious regeneration<br />
through contemporary uses.<br />
Cities and regions are more than ever being developed through strategic thinking. In the fastchanging<br />
world, cities cannot keep satisfying only their primary, immediate needs. Cities are being<br />
replaced by regions and isolation by networking. Competitiveness in a regional and global scale<br />
are important if a city wants to keep their boat afloat in the sea <strong>of</strong> the contemporary world.<br />
4
OUR WORK<br />
<strong>Estonian</strong> <strong>Academy</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>Arts</strong> students from the Urban Studies faculty started working on Paldiski in<br />
January 2007. The research and works included both – fieldwork and brainkwork in the classroom.<br />
We started by gathering as much information as possible, also while going there and making<br />
interviews with the local authorities and people. We organised a questionnaire in both schools <strong>of</strong><br />
Paldiski to find out how the local kids <strong>of</strong> different ages see their home town and in the end we were<br />
trying to take all the findings into account and suggest four different ways or options that Paldiski<br />
could become.<br />
CHILDREN - THE FUTURE OF <strong>PALDISKI</strong><br />
Fieldwork for the project consisted in finding out how Paldiski is portrayed in the minds <strong>of</strong> its<br />
children. We organised a questionnaire among the schoolchildren <strong>of</strong> different ages: 3rd, 4th, 10th,<br />
11th and 12th grade students, so approximately ages 10-12 and 16-18. We were asking their<br />
opinion on Paldiski and also what they think might be its future and what qualities the city has in<br />
their minds. An interesting thing that came out was that their ideas differed greatly from the ones<br />
expressed by for example Jaan Mölder. In their opinion the biggest plus that the city has is the nature<br />
– they adore the cliffs, the sea, the beach, the lighthouse, the windmills… And dislike strongly<br />
the Alexela petrol terminal, noisy and ugly city center and industrial outlooks. It was very very rare<br />
if someone didn’t mention the lack <strong>of</strong> entertainment in Paldiski – whereas most <strong>of</strong> the high school<br />
students asked for a cafeteria or a restaurant, the younger children had more fantasy and in their<br />
opinion there could be a zoo, a castle and a cinema over there. The children also seem to feel the<br />
conflict between two nationalities more, because both <strong>of</strong> them find the school <strong>of</strong> the others annoying<br />
and disliked it and several <strong>Estonian</strong>s mentioned that the reason they would like to move away<br />
from Paldiski is the ethnic situation. Other than that, most <strong>of</strong> the students were certain they will<br />
move away from Paldiski; the tendency was lower among younger students. Of the high school<br />
students only 2 mentioned that they are planning to come back after finishing their studies; the others<br />
would just visit friends from time to time.<br />
<strong>PALDISKI</strong> - A CITY OF FLOWS<br />
From everything said above, we started narrowing down the biggest flows and actors that are at<br />
work in Paldiski. The generalisations that could be made are quite interesting. Namely Paldiski is<br />
active in quite several fields: big ports, beautiful nature, contemporary army study center, windmill<br />
park that, if enlarged, could produce a remarkable percentage <strong>of</strong> Estonia’s need <strong>of</strong> energy… BUT<br />
all <strong>of</strong> it goes through and over and around Paldiski. Paldiski doesn’t actually benefit from any <strong>of</strong><br />
5
it, at least not as much as it could. The energy goes through, Paldiski doesn’t use it. The nature<br />
attracts people from other parts <strong>of</strong> Estonia too, but nobody stays to look around Paldiski before or<br />
after going to the cliffs. The cargo moves, but no people.<br />
In addition to that, the inhabitants <strong>of</strong> Paldiski have been quite passive in ameliorating their own<br />
surroundings. Part <strong>of</strong> it is definitely caused by the social structure <strong>of</strong> Paldiski – there are many old<br />
Russian widows <strong>of</strong> military <strong>of</strong>ficers living there and definitely their health and economic situation<br />
might not be the best. There is also a surprising number <strong>of</strong> children living in Paldiski, but their parents,<br />
however, mainly all work in Tallinn, so they spend most <strong>of</strong> their time and energy on commuting<br />
and bringing home money.<br />
MAIN QUESTIONS<br />
The previous generalization we again tried to put in more concise form and therefore we reached<br />
to the conclusion that there are three main things that should be viewed in an attempt t omake<br />
Paldiski a more vivid and lively place. These are:<br />
- How to mobilise the people: how to make them participate more and get them to help to make<br />
Paldiski a better place for themselves.<br />
- How to capture the flows: how to make the town benefit more from everything it is dealing with<br />
and everything that has been going over Paldiski until now.<br />
- What could be the attraction <strong>of</strong> paldiski: Expanding to the maximum the “green energy city”<br />
motto <strong>of</strong> Paldiski, and add other values and ideas that lead to a real identity and a strong image <strong>of</strong><br />
Paldiski.<br />
UNCERTAINTIES<br />
While projecting different futures for the city <strong>of</strong> Paldiski, we have recognised certain factors which<br />
play an important role in the future <strong>of</strong> Paldiski. While the city develops itself as a potential area for<br />
new dwellers and new business, it is still bound to Tallinn, both by economical reasons as well as<br />
by geographical situation. This poses a great oportunity for exploring itself as a leading zone within<br />
the reach <strong>of</strong> the big metropolis. Another certain quality <strong>of</strong> Paldiski is its natural environment, and<br />
it should be kept as a priority when developing a strategic growth <strong>of</strong> the city, since it plays a major<br />
role on its quality as a city.<br />
Yet there are many more questions that remain open in the future <strong>of</strong> the region. Some <strong>of</strong> these<br />
depend greately on the city’s decisions made now, while others depend upon greater political conflicts,<br />
such as the relationship between Estonia and Russia. Paldiski’s future as well as many<br />
6
4 SCENARIOS:<br />
NO CHANGE,<br />
MONO-USE<br />
COMPANY TOWN,<br />
VILLAGE<br />
“ICON”, ONE<br />
BIG IDEA<br />
IT CAMPUS PORT CITY<br />
SLOW CITY<br />
GRASSROOTS DEVELOPMENT, <br />
MULTICULTURALITY,<br />
MANY SMALL IDEAS<br />
MORE PEOPLE<br />
CREATIVE<br />
LANDSCAPE<br />
MORE URBAN<br />
MORE EVERYTHING<br />
10
REFERENCES<br />
Garreau, Joel, 1994, “The Global Business Network”, in Wired 2.11, 1994, p 98<br />
Kees van der Heijden, 1997, “Scenarios, Strategy, and the Strategy Process”,<br />
in Presearch: provoking strategic conversation. Vol. 1, Nr. 1. Published by the Global Business<br />
Network. Available in pdf format through www.gbn.com<br />
Global Business Network, “About Scenarios”.<br />
http://www.gbn.com/AboutScenariosDisplayServlet.srv<br />
Lawrence Wilkinson, 1995, “How to Build Scenarios”, in Wired Scenarios Special Issue, October<br />
1995, Wired 3.11, p 74<br />
INTERESTING LINKS<br />
http://www.slowmovement.com (Slow city movement)<br />
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cittaslow (Slow city movement)<br />
16
APPENDIX 1: INTERVIES WITH LOCAL ACTORS<br />
MARCH 3, 2007, <strong>PALDISKI</strong><br />
THE CITY COUNCIL CHAIRMAN JAAN MÖLDER<br />
A long-time Paldiski City Council Chairman Jaan Mölder gave us a long interview where he<br />
explained his vision <strong>of</strong> the future <strong>of</strong> Paldiski. In his view Paldiski will not connect its future with<br />
tourism and instead the main attention will be turned towards developing the ports and technopark:<br />
a center <strong>of</strong> <strong>of</strong>fices, firms and companies that would also bring an expected number <strong>of</strong> 3000 new<br />
workers to the town. The first thing that’s in plan to build is a new school and a waste water treatment<br />
center. Entertainment is less important and probably not too lucrative in a city <strong>of</strong> such size.<br />
An interesting idea he suggested was about the airport <strong>of</strong> Paldiski, which is quite big and if necessary<br />
works were finished, it could help to take the load <strong>of</strong>f the international airport <strong>of</strong> Tallinn for<br />
example. After all, Paldiski is just 52km away from the capital!<br />
The city <strong>of</strong>ficials see their town to grow in the nearest future – they expect to bring new workers for<br />
technopark from Ida-Virumaa. Also they expect a growth <strong>of</strong> villa area in the Eastern part <strong>of</strong> Paldiski.<br />
This would be ideally the place where Tallinners buy their houses as it’s still in the commuting<br />
range <strong>of</strong> 50km, but it’s on seashore and in a quiet place… In longer-term view the dream seems to<br />
be also to move the city <strong>of</strong> Paldisky to the Eastern part <strong>of</strong> the peninsula.<br />
17
THE CHIEF OF POLICE<br />
From the local chief <strong>of</strong> police we heard a confirmation to Jaan Mölder’s claim that Paldiski is a safe<br />
city and that main problem is the usual bunch <strong>of</strong> vodka-loving people who the <strong>of</strong>ficer has to bring<br />
to sleep to the station occasionally. Other than that he confirmed it’s calm and though he’s not<br />
living in Paldiski himself, he wouldn’t mind moving there. WHICH is in itself an example <strong>of</strong> the fact<br />
that Paldiski simply lacks the services and attractiveness to hold its locals in there.<br />
PORT AUTHORITIES<br />
The people working in the South Port shed a lot <strong>of</strong> light in how much exactly the port does. This is<br />
one <strong>of</strong> the most important activities in the town, but the work is controlled from Tallinn, as the port<br />
is owned by the Port <strong>of</strong> Tallinn. Mainly it deals with cargo shipping and though there used to be<br />
passenger ships to Sweden for example (Paldiski-Kapellskär), then these are closed by now. The<br />
only passengers that use it are mostly the drivers <strong>of</strong> cargo vehicles and besides them the cargo<br />
ships can take about 6-8 passengers. However, as cargo and transportation is important in Paldiski,<br />
then an idea <strong>of</strong> opening a railway connection with China (through Russia) is thought about<br />
and planned, which would open another lucrative transportation channel to Paldiski. It should be<br />
mentioned though, especially in today’s political climate, that it depends quite much on Russia’s<br />
behaviour and the interest in their side, for most <strong>of</strong> the ties that Paldiski has in that matter are with<br />
our huge Eastern neighbour.<br />
18
APPENDIX 2: DEMOGRAPHY<br />
In January 2007:<br />
4190 people, men 1851, women 2339<br />
Rate <strong>of</strong> dpenedents: 44,8 % <strong>of</strong> the population (average <strong>of</strong> Estonia: 46,6 %)<br />
Inhabitants per square kilometer: 69.6 (average <strong>of</strong> Estonia: 31)<br />
Demographic labor merket index: 395 (whole Estonia: 148 901)<br />
The population <strong>of</strong> Paldiski in January 2007 (the Office <strong>of</strong> Statistics)<br />
women<br />
men<br />
19