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Hotel Sahid Jaya International, Tbk - PT. PEFINDO

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<strong>Hotel</strong> <strong>Sahid</strong> <strong>Jaya</strong> <strong>International</strong>, <strong>Tbk</strong><br />

Secondary Report<br />

Stock Performance<br />

IHSG<br />

4,400<br />

4,200<br />

4,000<br />

3,800<br />

3,600<br />

3,400<br />

3,200<br />

3,000<br />

Source: Bloomberg<br />

Stock Information<br />

IHSG SHID<br />

Contact:<br />

Equity & Index Valuation Division<br />

Phone: (6221) 7278 2380<br />

info-equityindexvaluation@pefindo.co.id<br />

“Disclaimer statement in the last page is an<br />

integral part of this report”<br />

www.pefindo.com<br />

SHID<br />

650<br />

Rp<br />

Ticker code SHID<br />

Market price as of October 12 h , 2012 400<br />

Market price – 52 week high 590<br />

Market price – 52 week low 320<br />

Market cap – 52 week high (bn) 873<br />

Market cap – 52 week low (bn) 358<br />

Market Value Added & Market Risk<br />

Market Risk<br />

2<br />

1.8<br />

1.6<br />

1.4<br />

1.2<br />

1<br />

0.8<br />

0.6<br />

June-10 June-11 June-12<br />

Market Value Added Market risk<br />

Source:<strong>PT</strong> <strong>Hotel</strong> <strong>Sahid</strong> <strong>Jaya</strong> <strong>International</strong>, Pefindo Equity &<br />

Index Valuation Division<br />

600<br />

550<br />

500<br />

450<br />

400<br />

350<br />

300<br />

250<br />

MVA<br />

500<br />

Stock Valuation Last Current<br />

High 545 500<br />

Low 420 415<br />

Shareholders<br />

400<br />

300<br />

200<br />

100<br />

0<br />

(%)<br />

Merchiston Group Limited 41.68<br />

<strong>PT</strong> Empu <strong>Sahid</strong> <strong>International</strong> 37.29<br />

<strong>PT</strong> <strong>Sahid</strong> Insanadi 6.08<br />

Public (each below 5% of ownerships) 14.95<br />

-100<br />

-200<br />

-300<br />

-400<br />

Rejuvenation Does Matter<br />

Equity Valuation<br />

October 15 th , 2012<br />

Target Price<br />

Low High<br />

415 500<br />

<strong>Hotel</strong>s<br />

<strong>PT</strong> <strong>Hotel</strong> <strong>Sahid</strong> <strong>Jaya</strong> Internasional, <strong>Tbk</strong> ("SHID"), was established on May<br />

23 rd , 1969, and since then SHID has been actively participates in hotels and<br />

tourism industry. SHID started the construction of <strong>Hotel</strong> Grand <strong>Sahid</strong> <strong>Jaya</strong><br />

(previously known as <strong>Hotel</strong> <strong>Sahid</strong> <strong>Jaya</strong>) in 1970. The five star hotel is<br />

located at Jalan Jendral Sudirman - Jakarta, which constitutes as one of the<br />

main road in Jakarta. As of December 2011, the hotel was operating with<br />

450 rooms, that had been recently renovated, and around 270 rooms were<br />

still under renovation. Through its subsidiary, <strong>PT</strong> <strong>Sahid</strong> <strong>International</strong> <strong>Hotel</strong><br />

Management and Consultant (“SIHM&C”), provides the services of hotel<br />

management and consultancy to hotels owned by the <strong>Sahid</strong> Group, and<br />

hotels that are managed based on joint ventures or cooperation with other<br />

business groups. SHID also active in service apartments businesses, in<br />

which its revenue comes from rental of meeting rooms, engineering<br />

services, housekeeping, repair and maintenance services from apartment<br />

owners.<br />

Page 1 of 12 pages


INVESTMENT PARAMETER<br />

“Disclaimer statement in the last page<br />

is an integral part of this report”<br />

www.pefindo.com<br />

<strong>Hotel</strong> <strong>Sahid</strong> <strong>Jaya</strong> <strong>International</strong>, <strong>Tbk</strong><br />

Target Price Adjustment<br />

We make several adjustments to our previous projections, and adjust our Target<br />

Price to a range of Rp 415 - Rp 500 per share, based on the following<br />

considerations:<br />

Increasing visitor arrival to Jakarta by 9.1% YoY, or amounted 993,898<br />

people, caused by increasing flight frequencies and number of low cost<br />

carrier, has made the demand for hotel accommodation improved. It is proved<br />

by increasing Average Daily Rate (“ADR”), especially for five-star hotels in<br />

Jakarta by 15.7% YoY during January – May 2012. Interestingly, that<br />

increasing rate also accompanied by relatively stable of occupancy rate of<br />

five-star hotels by 65.2%. Supported by robust demand from corporate and<br />

government sector, plus limited new additions to the upscale hotel supply, we<br />

believe that the outlook for the five-star hotels remained prospective.<br />

SHID’s effort to perform rejuvenation does make a different. With that effort,<br />

SHID’s ADR rose to Rp 536,484 in 2011, or up by 19% compare to the 2010<br />

period. Interestingly, SHID occupancy rate also improved to 64.03% in 2011.<br />

We believe that such occupancy rate continue to occurred in 1H12, as SHID’s<br />

revenue climb up by 18% YoY, and we estimate it will book around 30% YoY<br />

of revenue growth during 2012 period.<br />

SHID’s revenue in 2011 was above our target. SHID recorded actual revenue<br />

of Rp 163 billion in 2011, while our previous target only Rp 131 billion. And in<br />

terms of operating and net profit growth during 1H12, SHID recorded a<br />

significant jump, as its operating and net profit growth climbed by 327.0%<br />

YoY and 98.9% YoY, respectively.<br />

Risk free rate, equity premium, and beta assumption are 5.9%, 6.2%, and<br />

1.2x respectively.<br />

Business Prospects<br />

As Indonesian economy manage to grow by 6.4% YoY in 1H12 and predicted to<br />

hit 6.2% YoY in 2012, Jakarta’s GDP also rose by 6.6% during 1H12, and<br />

estimated will reach 6.5% YoY by the end of 2012. Supported also by increasing<br />

flight frequencies and number of low cost carrier companies, caused improving<br />

visitors to Jakarta by 9.1% YoY in 1H12, or amounted to 993,898 people. With<br />

that condition, the demand for hotel accommodation also improved. That<br />

condition creates relatively stable of five-star hotels occupancy rate of 65.2%<br />

during January – May 2012 period, with increasing Average Daily Rate by 15.7%<br />

YoY. Looking at that condition, plus SHID’s condition after taking a rejuvenation<br />

of its hotel, we believe that SHID’s prospect remains positive. As a result, we<br />

estimate that SHID’s revenue will grow by 30% YoY in 2012, or 22% CAGR<br />

growth during 2011 – 2016 periods.<br />

Table 1: Performance Summary<br />

2009 2010 2011 2012P 2013P<br />

Revenue [Rp bn] 100 124 164 213 269<br />

Pre-tax profit [Rp bn] 15 18 12 21 26<br />

Net profit [Rp bn] 9 18 10 18 22<br />

EPS [Rp] 8 16 9 16 20<br />

EPS growth [%] (41) 94 (44) 80 23<br />

P/E [x] 48.8 65.5 45.4 24.9* 20.2*<br />

PBV [x]* 1.5 3.7 0.5 0.5* 0.4*<br />

Source: <strong>PT</strong> <strong>Hotel</strong> <strong>Sahid</strong> <strong>Jaya</strong> <strong>International</strong> <strong>Tbk</strong>, Pefindo Equity & Index Valuation Division Estimates<br />

* based on share price as of October 12 th , 2012 – Rp 400 / share<br />

October 15 th , 2012 Page 2 of 12 pages


GROWTH-VALUE MAP<br />

“Disclaimer statement in the last page<br />

is an integral part of this report”<br />

www.pefindo.com<br />

<strong>Hotel</strong> <strong>Sahid</strong> <strong>Jaya</strong> <strong>International</strong>, <strong>Tbk</strong><br />

Growth-Value Map provides overview of market expectations for the companies<br />

listed on IDX. Current Performance (“CP”) metric, running along the horizontal<br />

axis, is a portion of current stock market value that can be linked to the<br />

perpetuity of current company’s performance in profitability. Growth Expectations<br />

(“GE”) metric, plotted on the vertical axis, is the difference between current stock<br />

market value and the value of current performance. Both metrics are normalized<br />

by the company’s book value.<br />

Growth-Value Map divides companies into four clusters, they are:<br />

Excellent value managers (“Q-1”)<br />

Market expects companies in Q-1 to surpass their benchmark in<br />

profitability and growth.<br />

Expectation builders (“Q-2”)<br />

Market has relatively low expectations of profitability from companies in Q-<br />

2 in the short term, but has growth expectations exceed the benchmark.<br />

Traditionalists (“Q-3”)<br />

Market has low growth expectations of companies in the Q-3, although<br />

they showed a good profitability in the short term.<br />

Asset-loaded value managers (“Q-4”)<br />

Market has low expectations in terms of profitability and growth for<br />

companies in Q-4.<br />

Growth Expectations<br />

6<br />

5<br />

4<br />

3<br />

2<br />

1<br />

SHID<br />

0MAMI<br />

-1<br />

-2<br />

-3<br />

-4<br />

Q-2<br />

PGLI<br />

Q-4<br />

Figure 1: Growth-Value Map<br />

(SHID; <strong>Hotel</strong> Industry)<br />

0 1 2 3 4 5 6<br />

Current Performance (CP)<br />

October 15 th , 2012 Page 3 of 12 pages<br />

JS<strong>PT</strong><br />

GMCW<br />

Source: Pefindo Equity & Index Valuation Division<br />

Based on financial statement and market value, SHID is lying in Expectation<br />

Builders (“Q-2”) cluster. Market still has relatively low expectations regarding<br />

SHID’s profitability in the short term. However, we believe that after all of its<br />

hotel has been totally renovated, SHID’s profitability will be lifted. Thus, it may<br />

still need a better investor relation effort to make investors realize the company<br />

profitability potentials in the short term. SHID has the opportunity to move to<br />

Excellent Value Managers’ cluster (“Q-1”) by way of strengthening their<br />

internal growth capabilities and doing actions to drive market perceptions of their<br />

economic success.<br />

Q-1<br />

Q-3


BUSINESS INFORMATION<br />

“Disclaimer statement in the last page<br />

is an integral part of this report”<br />

www.pefindo.com<br />

<strong>Hotel</strong> <strong>Sahid</strong> <strong>Jaya</strong> <strong>International</strong>, <strong>Tbk</strong><br />

Prospective Economic Condition for <strong>Hotel</strong> Businesses<br />

Indonesia’s economic growth which attained 6.4% YoY in 1H12, has attracted<br />

many foreign companies to invest in Indonesia, with Jakarta as Indonesia’s main<br />

business hub. We estimate that the growth of Indonesian economy may reach<br />

6.2% YoY in 2012. Along with manageable inflation of 4.53% YoY in 1H12, low<br />

benchmark rate (“BI Rate”) of 5.75%, and improving GDP per capita which may<br />

break USD 4,000 level, we believe that hotel industry in Indonesia still<br />

prospective. Augmented with the result of Moody’s and Fitch rating, which<br />

classified Indonesia as Investment Grade Country, we believe that foreign direct<br />

investment will be flowing to many Indonesian industries. As a result, we believe<br />

that demand for hotel accommodation in Indonesia will be improving in the<br />

future.<br />

Table 2: Indonesia’s Economic Indicators, 2008 – 1H12<br />

Indicators Unit 2008 2009 2010 2011 1H12<br />

GDP Growth % YoY 6.1 4.5 6.1 6.5 6.4<br />

Inflation Rate % YoY 11.06 2.78 6.98 3.79 4.53<br />

Mid-Exchange Rate Rp/USD 9,136 9,680 10,398 8,779 9,480<br />

BI Rate % 9.25 6.50 6.50 6.00 5.75<br />

GDP per Capita USD 2,245 2,350 3,010 3,543<br />

Third Party Funds Rp tn 1,682 1,913 2,304 2,736 2,867<br />

Foreign Exchange Reserves USD bn 52<br />

66<br />

96 110 107<br />

Source: Bank Indonesia, Central Bureau of Statistic, Pefindo Equity & Index Valuation Division<br />

Flowing Visitors to Jakarta<br />

Increasing flight frequencies and number of low cost carrier companies, has<br />

improved the connection between Jakarta and the rest of Asia over the past few<br />

years. It also happened in 1H12 as proved by 9.1% YoY increasing visitor arrival<br />

in Jakarta through Soekarno-Hatta Airport or amounted to 993,898 people, or in<br />

total amounted to 1.028 million people, if Tanjung Priok Harbour and Halim<br />

Perdanakusuma Airport also calculated. It improved by 8.6% YoY compare to the<br />

1H11 periods. Based on such condition, we believe that in 2012 there will be<br />

around 2.2 million people coming to Jakarta, or grow by 10% YoY, which create<br />

strong demand of hotel accommodation.<br />

Figure 2: Number of Visitors to Jakarta, 2010 – 2012P<br />

%<br />

12.00%<br />

10.00%<br />

8.00%<br />

6.00%<br />

4.00%<br />

2.00%<br />

0.00%<br />

1.89<br />

October 15 th , 2012 Page 4 of 12 pages<br />

2.00<br />

2.2<br />

0.95<br />

million people<br />

2.50<br />

1.03<br />

2010 2011 2012P 1H11 1H12<br />

Number of visitors (million people) Growth (%, YoY)<br />

2.00<br />

1.50<br />

1.00<br />

0.50<br />

0.00<br />

Source: <strong>PT</strong> <strong>Hotel</strong> <strong>Sahid</strong> <strong>Jaya</strong> <strong>International</strong> <strong>Tbk</strong>, Pefindo Equity & Index Valuation Division<br />

Rising Room Rate Along with Stable Occupancy Rate<br />

As a result of flowing visitors to Jakarta the ADR of five-star hotels in Jakarta<br />

during January – May 2012 increased by 15.7% YoY, while the occupancy rate of<br />

such hotels have remained stable at 65.2%. Since 2010, annual occupancy of five<br />

star-hotels has been consistently above 60%, supported by robust demand from<br />

the corporate and government sectors. Limited new additions to the upscale hotel<br />

supply have also contributed to the rate increase in Jakarta. Thus, the outlook for


“Disclaimer statement in the last page<br />

is an integral part of this report”<br />

www.pefindo.com<br />

<strong>Hotel</strong> <strong>Sahid</strong> <strong>Jaya</strong> <strong>International</strong>, <strong>Tbk</strong><br />

the five-star hotels in Jakarta is relatively conducive as infrastructure<br />

improvements and an increase in flight connectivity will increase inbound<br />

visitation to Jakarta.<br />

Figure 3: Five-star <strong>Hotel</strong> Performance, 2007 – May 2012<br />

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, STR Global, Pefindo Equity & Index Valuation Division Estimates<br />

Notes: RevPar = Revenue per Available Room<br />

ADR = Average Daily Rate<br />

Rejuvenation Takes Effect<br />

In 2011, SHID still feel the effect of rejuvenation of 450 rooms that completed in<br />

2010. Customers are comfort with the renovated hotel, especially their rooms. It<br />

proved by higher occupancy rate, despite increasing average daily rate per room.<br />

SHID’s occupancy rate lifted to 64.03% in 2011, while in 2010 it only amounted<br />

to 57.81%, and its average daily room rate improved to Rp 536,484 in 2011<br />

while in 2010 it only reached Rp 450,727. As a result, revenue from room rental<br />

in 2011 was lift-up by 31% YoY to Rp 59.9 billion. And it continued in 1H12, as it<br />

rose by 28% YoY to reach Rp 33.3 billion.<br />

Rp, bn<br />

70.00<br />

60.00<br />

50.00<br />

40.00<br />

30.00<br />

20.00<br />

10.00<br />

0.00<br />

Figure 4: SHID’s Revenue from Room Rental and<br />

Occupancy Rate, 2010 – 1H12<br />

45.62<br />

57.81%<br />

October 15 th , 2012 Page 5 of 12 pages<br />

64.03%<br />

59.86<br />

25.94<br />

33.26<br />

2010 2011 1H11 1H12<br />

Revenue from room rental (Rp, bn) Occupancy Rate (%)<br />

65.00%<br />

64.00%<br />

63.00%<br />

62.00%<br />

61.00%<br />

60.00%<br />

59.00%<br />

58.00%<br />

57.00%<br />

56.00%<br />

55.00%<br />

54.00%<br />

Source: <strong>PT</strong> <strong>Hotel</strong> <strong>Sahid</strong> <strong>Jaya</strong> <strong>International</strong> <strong>Tbk</strong>, Pefindo Equity & Index Valuation Division<br />

Rejuvenation also caused revenue from food and beverages increased, since more<br />

people stay at SHID and dine at several SHID’s finest restaurants that offer pleasant<br />

and luxurious atmosphere. SHID revenue from food and beverages in 2011 strongly


FINANCE<br />

“Disclaimer statement in the last page<br />

is an integral part of this report”<br />

www.pefindo.com<br />

<strong>Hotel</strong> <strong>Sahid</strong> <strong>Jaya</strong> <strong>International</strong>, <strong>Tbk</strong><br />

grew by 35% YoY to become Rp 73.4 billion, and continued in 1H12 as it reached<br />

Rp 37.9 billion or grew by 32% YoY.<br />

Obtained New Loan Facilities, to Lowered-down Its Interest Expenses<br />

SHID obtained new loan facilities from CIMB Niaga Bank as much as Rp 180<br />

billion, with interest rate of 11% p.a. Around Rp 67% of that loan is used to<br />

accelerate the repayment of loan from other bank which gives interest rate of<br />

15% p.a. With such action, we estimate that SHID’s interest expense will be<br />

lower in the future. As of 1H12, SHID’s interest expense amounted to Rp 872.8<br />

million, still higher than 1H11 periods as a result of higher interest expense that<br />

still happened in 1Q12.<br />

Above Our Target on Revenue, but not Net Profit<br />

SHID’s performance in 2011 had been superb. Contributed mostly by the revenue<br />

from room rental as well as food and beverages, SHID recorded revenue of<br />

Rp 163 billion, higher than our previous expectation of Rp 131 billion.<br />

Rejuvenation has made SHID revenue from room rental and food and beverages<br />

reached Rp 59.9 billion and Rp 73.4 billion, respectively, while our previous<br />

estimation it would only reached Rp 47.2 billion and Rp 58.9 billion respectively.<br />

However, at the bottom line SHID actual net profit in 2011 only reached Rp 10<br />

billion, below our previous target of Rp 16.3 billion. It was due to the decreasing<br />

other income from Rp 10.9 billion in September 2011 to just Rp 915 million in<br />

December 2011.<br />

Figure 5: SHID’s Actual Vs Projection of Sales and Net<br />

Profit, 2011<br />

180.00<br />

160.00<br />

140.00<br />

120.00<br />

100.00<br />

80.00<br />

60.00<br />

40.00<br />

20.00<br />

0.00<br />

163.54<br />

(in Rp bn)<br />

October 15 th , 2012 Page 6 of 12 pages<br />

131.11<br />

2011<br />

10.00 16.31<br />

SHID's actual sales (Rp)<br />

SHID's sales projection<br />

(Rp)<br />

SHID's actual net profit<br />

(Rp)<br />

SHID's net profit<br />

projection (Rp)<br />

Source: <strong>PT</strong> <strong>Hotel</strong> <strong>Sahid</strong> <strong>Jaya</strong> <strong>International</strong> <strong>Tbk</strong>, Pefindo Equity & Index Valuation Division<br />

Strong Growth in 1H12<br />

During 1H12, SHID’s revenue, gross, operating and net profit posted positive growth<br />

of 17.9% YoY, 21.1% YoY, 327.0% YoY, and 98.9% YoY, respectively. 17,9% YoY of<br />

sales growth, which was higher than the growth of cost of sales and operating<br />

expenses of 11.6% YoY, 12.2% YoY, respectively, caused the significant growth of<br />

operating profit. Plus, the growth of other income of 73% YoY, causing SHID’s net<br />

income rose. Compare to the average peers, SHID’s operating and net profit growth<br />

are significantly higher, as peers’ operating and net profit growth in 1H 12 posted<br />

negative growths of 45.8% YoY, and 7.5% YoY.


“Disclaimer statement in the last page<br />

is an integral part of this report”<br />

www.pefindo.com<br />

350%<br />

300%<br />

250%<br />

200%<br />

150%<br />

100%<br />

50%<br />

-50%<br />

<strong>Hotel</strong> <strong>Sahid</strong> <strong>Jaya</strong> <strong>International</strong>, <strong>Tbk</strong><br />

Figure 6: Operating and Net Profit Margins of SHID Vs<br />

Average Peers, 1H12<br />

0%<br />

18% 22%<br />

21% 29%<br />

Sales [%] Gross Profit [%] Operating Profit<br />

[%]<br />

Net Profit [%]<br />

October 15 th , 2012 Page 7 of 12 pages<br />

327%<br />

-46%<br />

SHID Average (exc. SHID)<br />

99%<br />

Source: <strong>PT</strong> <strong>Hotel</strong> <strong>Sahid</strong> <strong>Jaya</strong> <strong>International</strong> <strong>Tbk</strong>, Pefindo Equity & Index Valuation Division<br />

SHID’s Business Prospect<br />

As Indonesian economy manage to grow by 6.4% YoY in 1H12 and predicted to<br />

hit 6.2% YoY in 2012, Jakarta’s GDP also rose by 6.6% during 1H12, and<br />

estimated will reach 6.5% YoY by the end of 2012. Supported also by increasing<br />

flight frequencies and number of low cost carrier companies, caused improving<br />

visitors to Jakarta by 9.1% YoY in 1H12, or amounted to 993,898 people. With<br />

that condition, the demand for hotel accommodation also improved. That<br />

condition creates relatively stable of five-star hotels occupancy rate of 65.2%<br />

during January – May 2012 period, with increasing Average Daily Rate by 15.7%<br />

YoY. Looking at that condition, plus SHID’s condition after taking a rejuvenation<br />

of its hotel, we believe that SHID’s prospect remains positive. As a result, we<br />

estimate that SHID’s revenue will grow by 30% YoY in 2012, or 22% CAGR<br />

growth during 2011 – 2016 periods.<br />

500<br />

450<br />

400<br />

350<br />

300<br />

250<br />

200<br />

150<br />

100<br />

50<br />

0<br />

Figure 7: SHID’s Revenues<br />

CAGR = 22%<br />

-7%<br />

2011 2012P 2013P 2014P 2015P 2016P<br />

SHID's Revenue (Rp, bn)<br />

Source: <strong>PT</strong> <strong>Hotel</strong> <strong>Sahid</strong> <strong>Jaya</strong> <strong>International</strong> <strong>Tbk</strong>, Pefindo Equity & Index Valuation Division<br />

Estimates


INDUSTRY COMPARISON<br />

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<strong>Hotel</strong> <strong>Sahid</strong> <strong>Jaya</strong> <strong>International</strong>, <strong>Tbk</strong><br />

Table 3: SHID and Its Peers Performance Summary as of June 30 th , 2012<br />

SHID BUVA HOME PLIN MAMI PGLI Average<br />

(exc. SHID)<br />

Net sales [Rp bn] 83 88 21 594 38 7<br />

Gross Profit [Rp bn] 57 67 10 297 21 4<br />

Operating profit [Rp bn] 6 28 2 69 4 0.1<br />

Net profit [Rp bn] 7 15 [1.4] 38 2 0.08<br />

Total assets [Rp bn] 1,242 1,110 173 4,359 681 45<br />

Total liabilities [Rp bn] 326 397 62 1,517 92 8<br />

Total equity [Rp bn] 916 712 112 2,336 589 37<br />

Growth YoY<br />

Net sales [%] 17.9 10.7 33.8 36.3 24.2 4.2 21.8<br />

Gross Profit [%] 21.1 18.8 18.5 31.4 17.5 [4.1] 29.0<br />

Operating profit [%] 327.0 4.5 [223.5] [49.4] 68.0 [28.6] [45.8]<br />

Net profit [%] 98.9 3.5 [39.1] [60.9] 79.2 [20.0] [7.5]<br />

Profitability<br />

Gross profit margin [%] 68.2 75.9 47.6 49.9 54.7 50.0 55.6<br />

Operating profit margin [%] 6.7 31.6 10.2 11.6 11.1 1.4 13.1<br />

Net profit margin [%] 8.2 16.9 [6.8] 6.4 5.0 1.1 4.5<br />

ROA [%] 0.5 1.3 [0.8] 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.4<br />

ROE [%] 0.7 2.1 [1.3] 1.6 0.3 0.2 0.6<br />

Leverage<br />

DER [x] 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.4<br />

Source: Bloomberg, Pefindo Equity & Index Valuation Division<br />

October 15 th , 2012 Page 8 of 12 pages


TARGET PRICE<br />

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is an integral part of this report”<br />

www.pefindo.com<br />

VALUATION<br />

Methodology<br />

<strong>Hotel</strong> <strong>Sahid</strong> <strong>Jaya</strong> <strong>International</strong>, <strong>Tbk</strong><br />

We apply income approach using Discounted Cash Flows (DCF) as the main<br />

valuation approach considering the income growth is a value driver in SHID<br />

instead of asset growth.<br />

Furthermore, we also apply Guideline Company Method (GCM) as comparison<br />

method.<br />

This valuation is based on 100% shares price as of October 12 th , 2012, using<br />

SHID’s financial report as of June 30 th , 2012, for our fundamental analysis.<br />

Value Estimation<br />

We use Cost of Capital of 12.64% and Cost of Equity 13.40% of based on the<br />

following assumptions:<br />

Table 4: Assumption<br />

Risk free rate [%]* 5.9<br />

Risk premium [%]* 6.2<br />

Beta [x]* 1.2<br />

Cost of Equity [%] 13.4<br />

Marginal Tax Rate [%] 25.0<br />

Interest Bearing Debt to Equity Ratio<br />

[%]<br />

October 15 th , 2012 Page 9 of 12 pages<br />

17.3<br />

WACC [%] 12.6<br />

Source: Bloomberg, Pefindo Equity & Index Valuation Division Estimates<br />

* as of October 12 th , 2012<br />

Target price for 12 months based on valuation as per October 12 th , 2012, is<br />

as follows:<br />

Using DCF method with discount rate assumption 12.64%, is Rp 420 -<br />

Rp 480 per share.<br />

Using GCM method (PBV 0.49X and P/E 33.98x) is Rp 400 – Rp 550<br />

per share.<br />

In order to obtain a value which represents both value indications, we have<br />

weighted both DCF and GCM methods by 70%:30%.<br />

Based on the above calculation, target price of SHID for 12 month is Rp 415<br />

- Rp 500 per share.<br />

Table 5: Summary of DCF Method Valuation<br />

Conservative Moderate Optimist<br />

PV of Free Cash Flows – [Rp, bn] 150 158 165<br />

PV Terminal Value – [Rp bn] 467 490 515<br />

Non-Operating Assets – [Rp, bn] 15 15 15<br />

Net Debt – [Rp, bn] (159) (159) (159)<br />

Total Equity Value – [Rp bn] 472 504 537<br />

Number of Share, [mn shares] 1,119 1,119 1,119<br />

Fair Value per Share, [Rp] 420 450 480<br />

Source: Pefindo Equity & Index Valuation Division Estimates


Table 6: GCM Comparison<br />

“Disclaimer statement in the last page<br />

is an integral part of this report”<br />

www.pefindo.com<br />

SHID<br />

P/E [x] 33.98<br />

P/BV [x] 0.49<br />

Source: Bloomberg, Pefindo Equity & Index Valuation Division<br />

Table 7: Summary of GCM Method Valuation<br />

Multiple [x] Est. EPS [Rp] Est. BV/share [Rp] Value [Rp]<br />

P/E 33.14 16.1 - 550<br />

P/BV 0.48 - 818.9 400<br />

Source: Bloomberg, Pefindo Equity & Index Valuation Division Estimates<br />

Table 8: Fair Value Reconciliation<br />

Fair Value per Share [Rp]<br />

DCF GCM Average<br />

Upper limit 480 550 500<br />

Bottom limit 420 400 415<br />

Weight 70% 30%<br />

Source: Pefindo Equity & Index Valuation Division Estimates<br />

<strong>Hotel</strong> <strong>Sahid</strong> <strong>Jaya</strong> <strong>International</strong>, <strong>Tbk</strong><br />

October 15 th , 2012 Page 10 of 12 pages


Table 9: Income Statement<br />

“Disclaimer statement in the last page<br />

is an integral part of this report”<br />

www.pefindo.com<br />

(Rp bn)<br />

2009 2010 2011 2012P 2013P<br />

Sales 100 124 164 213 269<br />

Cost of sales (40) (46) (51) (76) (99)<br />

Gross Profit 60 78 112 137 170<br />

Operating expenses (69) (73) (101) (120) (152)<br />

Income from<br />

operations<br />

(10) 5 11 16 18<br />

Other income<br />

(charges)<br />

25 13 1 5 8<br />

Pre-tax Profit 15 18 12 21 26<br />

Tax (6) 0.1 (1.9) (3) (4)<br />

Net Profit 9 18 10 18 22<br />

Source: <strong>PT</strong> <strong>Hotel</strong> <strong>Sahid</strong> <strong>Jaya</strong> <strong>International</strong> <strong>Tbk</strong>, Pefindo Equity & Index Valuation<br />

Division Estimates<br />

Table 10: Balance Sheet<br />

Assets<br />

Cash and cash equivalents<br />

(Rp bn)<br />

2009 2010 2011 2012P 2013P<br />

7 7 15 10 5<br />

Receivables 18 16 30 32 37<br />

Inventories 2 111 100 133 151<br />

Other short term assets 1 1 1 3 4<br />

Due from related parties 44 48 52 82 103<br />

Direct placements 1 1 - - -<br />

Fixed Assets 284 431 1,029 1,045 1,053<br />

Other long-term assets 264 5 9 14 16<br />

Total assets 620 619 1,237 1,319 1,369<br />

Liabilities<br />

Trade payables 67 35 52 60 78<br />

Tax payables 42 39 42 63 81<br />

Other payables 13 19 14 31 40<br />

Current maturities of bank<br />

loan<br />

30 32 0.2 2 2<br />

Current maturities of lease - - 2 0.7 0.7<br />

Other short-term liabilities 16 12 24 20 25<br />

Bank loans 97 111 130 157 118<br />

Leases - - 0.1 1 1<br />

Long-term liabilities 61 60 63 68 81<br />

Total liabilities 326 307 327 401 429<br />

Total equity 294 312 909 918 940<br />

Source: <strong>PT</strong> <strong>Hotel</strong> <strong>Sahid</strong> <strong>Jaya</strong> <strong>International</strong> <strong>Tbk</strong>, Pefindo Equity & Index Valuation<br />

Division Estimates<br />

<strong>Hotel</strong> <strong>Sahid</strong> <strong>Jaya</strong> <strong>International</strong>, <strong>Tbk</strong><br />

Figure 8: Historical P/E and P/BV<br />

October 15 th , 2012 Page 11 of 12 pages<br />

P/E<br />

4.0<br />

3.5<br />

3.0<br />

2.5<br />

2.0<br />

1.5<br />

1.0<br />

0.5<br />

0.0<br />

2009 2010 2011<br />

P/E P/BV<br />

Source: Bloomberg, Pefindo Equity & Index Valuation Division<br />

Figure 9: Historical ROA, ROE and Total Asset Turnover<br />

ROA, ROE<br />

6%<br />

5%<br />

4%<br />

3%<br />

2%<br />

1%<br />

0%<br />

2009 2010 2011<br />

TAT (x) ROA (%) ROE (%)<br />

Source: <strong>PT</strong> <strong>Hotel</strong> <strong>Sahid</strong> <strong>Jaya</strong> <strong>International</strong> <strong>Tbk</strong>, Pefindo Equity & Index Valuation Division<br />

Table 11: Key Ratios<br />

Growth [%]<br />

P/BV<br />

70.0<br />

60.0<br />

50.0<br />

40.0<br />

30.0<br />

20.0<br />

10.0<br />

2009 2010 2011 2012P 2013P<br />

Net sales 13 24 32 30 26<br />

Operating profit 17 151 123 48 13<br />

Net profit (41) 94 (44) 80 23<br />

Profitability [%]<br />

Gross margin 60 63 69 64 63<br />

Operating margin (10) 4 7 8 7<br />

Net margin 9 14 6 8 8<br />

ROA 1 3 1 2 2<br />

ROE 3 6 1 2 3<br />

Solvability [x]<br />

Debt to equity 111 99 36 44 46<br />

Debt to asset 53 50 26 30 31<br />

Source: <strong>PT</strong> <strong>Hotel</strong> <strong>Sahid</strong> <strong>Jaya</strong> <strong>International</strong> <strong>Tbk</strong>, Pefindo Equity & Index Valuation Division<br />

Estimates<br />

0.0<br />

TAT<br />

0.25<br />

0.20<br />

0.15<br />

0.10<br />

0.05<br />

0.00


“Disclaimer statement in the last page<br />

is an integral part of this report”<br />

www.pefindo.com<br />

DISCLAIMER<br />

<strong>Hotel</strong> <strong>Sahid</strong> <strong>Jaya</strong> <strong>International</strong>, <strong>Tbk</strong><br />

This report was prepared based on the SHIDted and reliable sources. Nevertheless, we do not guarantee<br />

its completeness, accuracy and adequacy. Therefore we do not responsible of any investment decision<br />

making based on this report. As for any assumptions, opinions and predictions were solely our internal<br />

judgments as per reporting date, and those judgments are subject to change without further notice.<br />

We do not responsible for mistake and negligence occurred by using this report. Last performance could<br />

not always be used as reference for future outcome. This report is not an offering recommendation,<br />

purchase or holds particular shares. This report might not be suitable for some investors. All opinion in<br />

this report has been presented fairly as per issuing date with good intentions; however it could be change<br />

at any time without further notice. The price, value or income from each share of the Company stated in<br />

this report might lower than the investor expectation and investor might obtain lower return than the<br />

invested amount. Investment is defined as the probable income that will be received in the future;<br />

nonetheless such return may possibly fluctuate. As for the Company which its share is denominated other<br />

than Rupiah, the foreign exchange fluctuation may reduce the value, price or investor investment return.<br />

This report does not contain any information for tax consideration in investment decision making.<br />

The share price target in this report is a fundamental value, not a fair market value nor a transaction price<br />

reference required by the regulations.<br />

The share price target issued by Pefindo Equity & Index Valuation Division is not a recommendation to<br />

buy, sell or hold particular shares and it could not be considered as an investment advice from Pefindo<br />

Equity & Index Valuation Division as its scope of service to, or in relation to some parties, including listed<br />

companies, financial advisor, broker, investment bank, financial institution and intermediary, in<br />

correlation with receiving rewards or any other benefits from that parties.<br />

This report is not intended for particular investor and cannot be used as part of investment objective on<br />

particular shares and neither an investment recommendation on particular s hares or an investment<br />

strategy. We strongly recommended investor to consider the suitable situation and condition at first before<br />

making decision in relation with the figure in this report. If it is necessary, kindly contact your financial<br />

advisor.<br />

<strong>PEFINDO</strong> keeps the activities of Equity Valuation separate from Ratings to preserve independence and<br />

objectivity of its analytical processes and products. <strong>PEFINDO</strong> has established policies and procedures to<br />

maintain the confidentiality of certain non-public information received in connection with each analytical<br />

process. The entire process, methodology and the database used in the preparation of the Reference<br />

Share Price Target Report as a whole is different from the processes, methodologies and databases used<br />

<strong>PEFINDO</strong> in doing the rating.<br />

This report was prepared and composed by Pefindo Equity & Index Valuation Division with the objective to<br />

enhance shares price transparency of listed companies in Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). This report is also free of<br />

other party’s influence, pressure or force either from IDX or the listed company which reviewed by Pefindo Equity &<br />

Index Valuation Division. Pefindo Equity & Index Valuation Division will earn reward amounting to Rp 20 mn<br />

each from IDX and the reviewed company for issuing report twice per year. For further information, please visit our<br />

website at http://www.pefindo.com<br />

This report is prepared and composed by Pefindo Equity & Index Valuation Division. In Indonesia, t his<br />

report is published in our website and in IDX website.<br />

October 15 th , 2012 Page 12 of 12 pages

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