Hotel Sahid Jaya International, Tbk - PT. PEFINDO
Hotel Sahid Jaya International, Tbk - PT. PEFINDO
Hotel Sahid Jaya International, Tbk - PT. PEFINDO
Create successful ePaper yourself
Turn your PDF publications into a flip-book with our unique Google optimized e-Paper software.
<strong>Hotel</strong> <strong>Sahid</strong> <strong>Jaya</strong> <strong>International</strong>, <strong>Tbk</strong><br />
Secondary Report<br />
Stock Performance<br />
IHSG<br />
4,400<br />
4,200<br />
4,000<br />
3,800<br />
3,600<br />
3,400<br />
3,200<br />
3,000<br />
Source: Bloomberg<br />
Stock Information<br />
IHSG SHID<br />
Contact:<br />
Equity & Index Valuation Division<br />
Phone: (6221) 7278 2380<br />
info-equityindexvaluation@pefindo.co.id<br />
“Disclaimer statement in the last page is an<br />
integral part of this report”<br />
www.pefindo.com<br />
SHID<br />
650<br />
Rp<br />
Ticker code SHID<br />
Market price as of October 12 h , 2012 400<br />
Market price – 52 week high 590<br />
Market price – 52 week low 320<br />
Market cap – 52 week high (bn) 873<br />
Market cap – 52 week low (bn) 358<br />
Market Value Added & Market Risk<br />
Market Risk<br />
2<br />
1.8<br />
1.6<br />
1.4<br />
1.2<br />
1<br />
0.8<br />
0.6<br />
June-10 June-11 June-12<br />
Market Value Added Market risk<br />
Source:<strong>PT</strong> <strong>Hotel</strong> <strong>Sahid</strong> <strong>Jaya</strong> <strong>International</strong>, Pefindo Equity &<br />
Index Valuation Division<br />
600<br />
550<br />
500<br />
450<br />
400<br />
350<br />
300<br />
250<br />
MVA<br />
500<br />
Stock Valuation Last Current<br />
High 545 500<br />
Low 420 415<br />
Shareholders<br />
400<br />
300<br />
200<br />
100<br />
0<br />
(%)<br />
Merchiston Group Limited 41.68<br />
<strong>PT</strong> Empu <strong>Sahid</strong> <strong>International</strong> 37.29<br />
<strong>PT</strong> <strong>Sahid</strong> Insanadi 6.08<br />
Public (each below 5% of ownerships) 14.95<br />
-100<br />
-200<br />
-300<br />
-400<br />
Rejuvenation Does Matter<br />
Equity Valuation<br />
October 15 th , 2012<br />
Target Price<br />
Low High<br />
415 500<br />
<strong>Hotel</strong>s<br />
<strong>PT</strong> <strong>Hotel</strong> <strong>Sahid</strong> <strong>Jaya</strong> Internasional, <strong>Tbk</strong> ("SHID"), was established on May<br />
23 rd , 1969, and since then SHID has been actively participates in hotels and<br />
tourism industry. SHID started the construction of <strong>Hotel</strong> Grand <strong>Sahid</strong> <strong>Jaya</strong><br />
(previously known as <strong>Hotel</strong> <strong>Sahid</strong> <strong>Jaya</strong>) in 1970. The five star hotel is<br />
located at Jalan Jendral Sudirman - Jakarta, which constitutes as one of the<br />
main road in Jakarta. As of December 2011, the hotel was operating with<br />
450 rooms, that had been recently renovated, and around 270 rooms were<br />
still under renovation. Through its subsidiary, <strong>PT</strong> <strong>Sahid</strong> <strong>International</strong> <strong>Hotel</strong><br />
Management and Consultant (“SIHM&C”), provides the services of hotel<br />
management and consultancy to hotels owned by the <strong>Sahid</strong> Group, and<br />
hotels that are managed based on joint ventures or cooperation with other<br />
business groups. SHID also active in service apartments businesses, in<br />
which its revenue comes from rental of meeting rooms, engineering<br />
services, housekeeping, repair and maintenance services from apartment<br />
owners.<br />
Page 1 of 12 pages
INVESTMENT PARAMETER<br />
“Disclaimer statement in the last page<br />
is an integral part of this report”<br />
www.pefindo.com<br />
<strong>Hotel</strong> <strong>Sahid</strong> <strong>Jaya</strong> <strong>International</strong>, <strong>Tbk</strong><br />
Target Price Adjustment<br />
We make several adjustments to our previous projections, and adjust our Target<br />
Price to a range of Rp 415 - Rp 500 per share, based on the following<br />
considerations:<br />
Increasing visitor arrival to Jakarta by 9.1% YoY, or amounted 993,898<br />
people, caused by increasing flight frequencies and number of low cost<br />
carrier, has made the demand for hotel accommodation improved. It is proved<br />
by increasing Average Daily Rate (“ADR”), especially for five-star hotels in<br />
Jakarta by 15.7% YoY during January – May 2012. Interestingly, that<br />
increasing rate also accompanied by relatively stable of occupancy rate of<br />
five-star hotels by 65.2%. Supported by robust demand from corporate and<br />
government sector, plus limited new additions to the upscale hotel supply, we<br />
believe that the outlook for the five-star hotels remained prospective.<br />
SHID’s effort to perform rejuvenation does make a different. With that effort,<br />
SHID’s ADR rose to Rp 536,484 in 2011, or up by 19% compare to the 2010<br />
period. Interestingly, SHID occupancy rate also improved to 64.03% in 2011.<br />
We believe that such occupancy rate continue to occurred in 1H12, as SHID’s<br />
revenue climb up by 18% YoY, and we estimate it will book around 30% YoY<br />
of revenue growth during 2012 period.<br />
SHID’s revenue in 2011 was above our target. SHID recorded actual revenue<br />
of Rp 163 billion in 2011, while our previous target only Rp 131 billion. And in<br />
terms of operating and net profit growth during 1H12, SHID recorded a<br />
significant jump, as its operating and net profit growth climbed by 327.0%<br />
YoY and 98.9% YoY, respectively.<br />
Risk free rate, equity premium, and beta assumption are 5.9%, 6.2%, and<br />
1.2x respectively.<br />
Business Prospects<br />
As Indonesian economy manage to grow by 6.4% YoY in 1H12 and predicted to<br />
hit 6.2% YoY in 2012, Jakarta’s GDP also rose by 6.6% during 1H12, and<br />
estimated will reach 6.5% YoY by the end of 2012. Supported also by increasing<br />
flight frequencies and number of low cost carrier companies, caused improving<br />
visitors to Jakarta by 9.1% YoY in 1H12, or amounted to 993,898 people. With<br />
that condition, the demand for hotel accommodation also improved. That<br />
condition creates relatively stable of five-star hotels occupancy rate of 65.2%<br />
during January – May 2012 period, with increasing Average Daily Rate by 15.7%<br />
YoY. Looking at that condition, plus SHID’s condition after taking a rejuvenation<br />
of its hotel, we believe that SHID’s prospect remains positive. As a result, we<br />
estimate that SHID’s revenue will grow by 30% YoY in 2012, or 22% CAGR<br />
growth during 2011 – 2016 periods.<br />
Table 1: Performance Summary<br />
2009 2010 2011 2012P 2013P<br />
Revenue [Rp bn] 100 124 164 213 269<br />
Pre-tax profit [Rp bn] 15 18 12 21 26<br />
Net profit [Rp bn] 9 18 10 18 22<br />
EPS [Rp] 8 16 9 16 20<br />
EPS growth [%] (41) 94 (44) 80 23<br />
P/E [x] 48.8 65.5 45.4 24.9* 20.2*<br />
PBV [x]* 1.5 3.7 0.5 0.5* 0.4*<br />
Source: <strong>PT</strong> <strong>Hotel</strong> <strong>Sahid</strong> <strong>Jaya</strong> <strong>International</strong> <strong>Tbk</strong>, Pefindo Equity & Index Valuation Division Estimates<br />
* based on share price as of October 12 th , 2012 – Rp 400 / share<br />
October 15 th , 2012 Page 2 of 12 pages
GROWTH-VALUE MAP<br />
“Disclaimer statement in the last page<br />
is an integral part of this report”<br />
www.pefindo.com<br />
<strong>Hotel</strong> <strong>Sahid</strong> <strong>Jaya</strong> <strong>International</strong>, <strong>Tbk</strong><br />
Growth-Value Map provides overview of market expectations for the companies<br />
listed on IDX. Current Performance (“CP”) metric, running along the horizontal<br />
axis, is a portion of current stock market value that can be linked to the<br />
perpetuity of current company’s performance in profitability. Growth Expectations<br />
(“GE”) metric, plotted on the vertical axis, is the difference between current stock<br />
market value and the value of current performance. Both metrics are normalized<br />
by the company’s book value.<br />
Growth-Value Map divides companies into four clusters, they are:<br />
Excellent value managers (“Q-1”)<br />
Market expects companies in Q-1 to surpass their benchmark in<br />
profitability and growth.<br />
Expectation builders (“Q-2”)<br />
Market has relatively low expectations of profitability from companies in Q-<br />
2 in the short term, but has growth expectations exceed the benchmark.<br />
Traditionalists (“Q-3”)<br />
Market has low growth expectations of companies in the Q-3, although<br />
they showed a good profitability in the short term.<br />
Asset-loaded value managers (“Q-4”)<br />
Market has low expectations in terms of profitability and growth for<br />
companies in Q-4.<br />
Growth Expectations<br />
6<br />
5<br />
4<br />
3<br />
2<br />
1<br />
SHID<br />
0MAMI<br />
-1<br />
-2<br />
-3<br />
-4<br />
Q-2<br />
PGLI<br />
Q-4<br />
Figure 1: Growth-Value Map<br />
(SHID; <strong>Hotel</strong> Industry)<br />
0 1 2 3 4 5 6<br />
Current Performance (CP)<br />
October 15 th , 2012 Page 3 of 12 pages<br />
JS<strong>PT</strong><br />
GMCW<br />
Source: Pefindo Equity & Index Valuation Division<br />
Based on financial statement and market value, SHID is lying in Expectation<br />
Builders (“Q-2”) cluster. Market still has relatively low expectations regarding<br />
SHID’s profitability in the short term. However, we believe that after all of its<br />
hotel has been totally renovated, SHID’s profitability will be lifted. Thus, it may<br />
still need a better investor relation effort to make investors realize the company<br />
profitability potentials in the short term. SHID has the opportunity to move to<br />
Excellent Value Managers’ cluster (“Q-1”) by way of strengthening their<br />
internal growth capabilities and doing actions to drive market perceptions of their<br />
economic success.<br />
Q-1<br />
Q-3
BUSINESS INFORMATION<br />
“Disclaimer statement in the last page<br />
is an integral part of this report”<br />
www.pefindo.com<br />
<strong>Hotel</strong> <strong>Sahid</strong> <strong>Jaya</strong> <strong>International</strong>, <strong>Tbk</strong><br />
Prospective Economic Condition for <strong>Hotel</strong> Businesses<br />
Indonesia’s economic growth which attained 6.4% YoY in 1H12, has attracted<br />
many foreign companies to invest in Indonesia, with Jakarta as Indonesia’s main<br />
business hub. We estimate that the growth of Indonesian economy may reach<br />
6.2% YoY in 2012. Along with manageable inflation of 4.53% YoY in 1H12, low<br />
benchmark rate (“BI Rate”) of 5.75%, and improving GDP per capita which may<br />
break USD 4,000 level, we believe that hotel industry in Indonesia still<br />
prospective. Augmented with the result of Moody’s and Fitch rating, which<br />
classified Indonesia as Investment Grade Country, we believe that foreign direct<br />
investment will be flowing to many Indonesian industries. As a result, we believe<br />
that demand for hotel accommodation in Indonesia will be improving in the<br />
future.<br />
Table 2: Indonesia’s Economic Indicators, 2008 – 1H12<br />
Indicators Unit 2008 2009 2010 2011 1H12<br />
GDP Growth % YoY 6.1 4.5 6.1 6.5 6.4<br />
Inflation Rate % YoY 11.06 2.78 6.98 3.79 4.53<br />
Mid-Exchange Rate Rp/USD 9,136 9,680 10,398 8,779 9,480<br />
BI Rate % 9.25 6.50 6.50 6.00 5.75<br />
GDP per Capita USD 2,245 2,350 3,010 3,543<br />
Third Party Funds Rp tn 1,682 1,913 2,304 2,736 2,867<br />
Foreign Exchange Reserves USD bn 52<br />
66<br />
96 110 107<br />
Source: Bank Indonesia, Central Bureau of Statistic, Pefindo Equity & Index Valuation Division<br />
Flowing Visitors to Jakarta<br />
Increasing flight frequencies and number of low cost carrier companies, has<br />
improved the connection between Jakarta and the rest of Asia over the past few<br />
years. It also happened in 1H12 as proved by 9.1% YoY increasing visitor arrival<br />
in Jakarta through Soekarno-Hatta Airport or amounted to 993,898 people, or in<br />
total amounted to 1.028 million people, if Tanjung Priok Harbour and Halim<br />
Perdanakusuma Airport also calculated. It improved by 8.6% YoY compare to the<br />
1H11 periods. Based on such condition, we believe that in 2012 there will be<br />
around 2.2 million people coming to Jakarta, or grow by 10% YoY, which create<br />
strong demand of hotel accommodation.<br />
Figure 2: Number of Visitors to Jakarta, 2010 – 2012P<br />
%<br />
12.00%<br />
10.00%<br />
8.00%<br />
6.00%<br />
4.00%<br />
2.00%<br />
0.00%<br />
1.89<br />
October 15 th , 2012 Page 4 of 12 pages<br />
2.00<br />
2.2<br />
0.95<br />
million people<br />
2.50<br />
1.03<br />
2010 2011 2012P 1H11 1H12<br />
Number of visitors (million people) Growth (%, YoY)<br />
2.00<br />
1.50<br />
1.00<br />
0.50<br />
0.00<br />
Source: <strong>PT</strong> <strong>Hotel</strong> <strong>Sahid</strong> <strong>Jaya</strong> <strong>International</strong> <strong>Tbk</strong>, Pefindo Equity & Index Valuation Division<br />
Rising Room Rate Along with Stable Occupancy Rate<br />
As a result of flowing visitors to Jakarta the ADR of five-star hotels in Jakarta<br />
during January – May 2012 increased by 15.7% YoY, while the occupancy rate of<br />
such hotels have remained stable at 65.2%. Since 2010, annual occupancy of five<br />
star-hotels has been consistently above 60%, supported by robust demand from<br />
the corporate and government sectors. Limited new additions to the upscale hotel<br />
supply have also contributed to the rate increase in Jakarta. Thus, the outlook for
“Disclaimer statement in the last page<br />
is an integral part of this report”<br />
www.pefindo.com<br />
<strong>Hotel</strong> <strong>Sahid</strong> <strong>Jaya</strong> <strong>International</strong>, <strong>Tbk</strong><br />
the five-star hotels in Jakarta is relatively conducive as infrastructure<br />
improvements and an increase in flight connectivity will increase inbound<br />
visitation to Jakarta.<br />
Figure 3: Five-star <strong>Hotel</strong> Performance, 2007 – May 2012<br />
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, STR Global, Pefindo Equity & Index Valuation Division Estimates<br />
Notes: RevPar = Revenue per Available Room<br />
ADR = Average Daily Rate<br />
Rejuvenation Takes Effect<br />
In 2011, SHID still feel the effect of rejuvenation of 450 rooms that completed in<br />
2010. Customers are comfort with the renovated hotel, especially their rooms. It<br />
proved by higher occupancy rate, despite increasing average daily rate per room.<br />
SHID’s occupancy rate lifted to 64.03% in 2011, while in 2010 it only amounted<br />
to 57.81%, and its average daily room rate improved to Rp 536,484 in 2011<br />
while in 2010 it only reached Rp 450,727. As a result, revenue from room rental<br />
in 2011 was lift-up by 31% YoY to Rp 59.9 billion. And it continued in 1H12, as it<br />
rose by 28% YoY to reach Rp 33.3 billion.<br />
Rp, bn<br />
70.00<br />
60.00<br />
50.00<br />
40.00<br />
30.00<br />
20.00<br />
10.00<br />
0.00<br />
Figure 4: SHID’s Revenue from Room Rental and<br />
Occupancy Rate, 2010 – 1H12<br />
45.62<br />
57.81%<br />
October 15 th , 2012 Page 5 of 12 pages<br />
64.03%<br />
59.86<br />
25.94<br />
33.26<br />
2010 2011 1H11 1H12<br />
Revenue from room rental (Rp, bn) Occupancy Rate (%)<br />
65.00%<br />
64.00%<br />
63.00%<br />
62.00%<br />
61.00%<br />
60.00%<br />
59.00%<br />
58.00%<br />
57.00%<br />
56.00%<br />
55.00%<br />
54.00%<br />
Source: <strong>PT</strong> <strong>Hotel</strong> <strong>Sahid</strong> <strong>Jaya</strong> <strong>International</strong> <strong>Tbk</strong>, Pefindo Equity & Index Valuation Division<br />
Rejuvenation also caused revenue from food and beverages increased, since more<br />
people stay at SHID and dine at several SHID’s finest restaurants that offer pleasant<br />
and luxurious atmosphere. SHID revenue from food and beverages in 2011 strongly
FINANCE<br />
“Disclaimer statement in the last page<br />
is an integral part of this report”<br />
www.pefindo.com<br />
<strong>Hotel</strong> <strong>Sahid</strong> <strong>Jaya</strong> <strong>International</strong>, <strong>Tbk</strong><br />
grew by 35% YoY to become Rp 73.4 billion, and continued in 1H12 as it reached<br />
Rp 37.9 billion or grew by 32% YoY.<br />
Obtained New Loan Facilities, to Lowered-down Its Interest Expenses<br />
SHID obtained new loan facilities from CIMB Niaga Bank as much as Rp 180<br />
billion, with interest rate of 11% p.a. Around Rp 67% of that loan is used to<br />
accelerate the repayment of loan from other bank which gives interest rate of<br />
15% p.a. With such action, we estimate that SHID’s interest expense will be<br />
lower in the future. As of 1H12, SHID’s interest expense amounted to Rp 872.8<br />
million, still higher than 1H11 periods as a result of higher interest expense that<br />
still happened in 1Q12.<br />
Above Our Target on Revenue, but not Net Profit<br />
SHID’s performance in 2011 had been superb. Contributed mostly by the revenue<br />
from room rental as well as food and beverages, SHID recorded revenue of<br />
Rp 163 billion, higher than our previous expectation of Rp 131 billion.<br />
Rejuvenation has made SHID revenue from room rental and food and beverages<br />
reached Rp 59.9 billion and Rp 73.4 billion, respectively, while our previous<br />
estimation it would only reached Rp 47.2 billion and Rp 58.9 billion respectively.<br />
However, at the bottom line SHID actual net profit in 2011 only reached Rp 10<br />
billion, below our previous target of Rp 16.3 billion. It was due to the decreasing<br />
other income from Rp 10.9 billion in September 2011 to just Rp 915 million in<br />
December 2011.<br />
Figure 5: SHID’s Actual Vs Projection of Sales and Net<br />
Profit, 2011<br />
180.00<br />
160.00<br />
140.00<br />
120.00<br />
100.00<br />
80.00<br />
60.00<br />
40.00<br />
20.00<br />
0.00<br />
163.54<br />
(in Rp bn)<br />
October 15 th , 2012 Page 6 of 12 pages<br />
131.11<br />
2011<br />
10.00 16.31<br />
SHID's actual sales (Rp)<br />
SHID's sales projection<br />
(Rp)<br />
SHID's actual net profit<br />
(Rp)<br />
SHID's net profit<br />
projection (Rp)<br />
Source: <strong>PT</strong> <strong>Hotel</strong> <strong>Sahid</strong> <strong>Jaya</strong> <strong>International</strong> <strong>Tbk</strong>, Pefindo Equity & Index Valuation Division<br />
Strong Growth in 1H12<br />
During 1H12, SHID’s revenue, gross, operating and net profit posted positive growth<br />
of 17.9% YoY, 21.1% YoY, 327.0% YoY, and 98.9% YoY, respectively. 17,9% YoY of<br />
sales growth, which was higher than the growth of cost of sales and operating<br />
expenses of 11.6% YoY, 12.2% YoY, respectively, caused the significant growth of<br />
operating profit. Plus, the growth of other income of 73% YoY, causing SHID’s net<br />
income rose. Compare to the average peers, SHID’s operating and net profit growth<br />
are significantly higher, as peers’ operating and net profit growth in 1H 12 posted<br />
negative growths of 45.8% YoY, and 7.5% YoY.
“Disclaimer statement in the last page<br />
is an integral part of this report”<br />
www.pefindo.com<br />
350%<br />
300%<br />
250%<br />
200%<br />
150%<br />
100%<br />
50%<br />
-50%<br />
<strong>Hotel</strong> <strong>Sahid</strong> <strong>Jaya</strong> <strong>International</strong>, <strong>Tbk</strong><br />
Figure 6: Operating and Net Profit Margins of SHID Vs<br />
Average Peers, 1H12<br />
0%<br />
18% 22%<br />
21% 29%<br />
Sales [%] Gross Profit [%] Operating Profit<br />
[%]<br />
Net Profit [%]<br />
October 15 th , 2012 Page 7 of 12 pages<br />
327%<br />
-46%<br />
SHID Average (exc. SHID)<br />
99%<br />
Source: <strong>PT</strong> <strong>Hotel</strong> <strong>Sahid</strong> <strong>Jaya</strong> <strong>International</strong> <strong>Tbk</strong>, Pefindo Equity & Index Valuation Division<br />
SHID’s Business Prospect<br />
As Indonesian economy manage to grow by 6.4% YoY in 1H12 and predicted to<br />
hit 6.2% YoY in 2012, Jakarta’s GDP also rose by 6.6% during 1H12, and<br />
estimated will reach 6.5% YoY by the end of 2012. Supported also by increasing<br />
flight frequencies and number of low cost carrier companies, caused improving<br />
visitors to Jakarta by 9.1% YoY in 1H12, or amounted to 993,898 people. With<br />
that condition, the demand for hotel accommodation also improved. That<br />
condition creates relatively stable of five-star hotels occupancy rate of 65.2%<br />
during January – May 2012 period, with increasing Average Daily Rate by 15.7%<br />
YoY. Looking at that condition, plus SHID’s condition after taking a rejuvenation<br />
of its hotel, we believe that SHID’s prospect remains positive. As a result, we<br />
estimate that SHID’s revenue will grow by 30% YoY in 2012, or 22% CAGR<br />
growth during 2011 – 2016 periods.<br />
500<br />
450<br />
400<br />
350<br />
300<br />
250<br />
200<br />
150<br />
100<br />
50<br />
0<br />
Figure 7: SHID’s Revenues<br />
CAGR = 22%<br />
-7%<br />
2011 2012P 2013P 2014P 2015P 2016P<br />
SHID's Revenue (Rp, bn)<br />
Source: <strong>PT</strong> <strong>Hotel</strong> <strong>Sahid</strong> <strong>Jaya</strong> <strong>International</strong> <strong>Tbk</strong>, Pefindo Equity & Index Valuation Division<br />
Estimates
INDUSTRY COMPARISON<br />
“Disclaimer statement in the last page<br />
is an integral part of this report”<br />
www.pefindo.com<br />
<strong>Hotel</strong> <strong>Sahid</strong> <strong>Jaya</strong> <strong>International</strong>, <strong>Tbk</strong><br />
Table 3: SHID and Its Peers Performance Summary as of June 30 th , 2012<br />
SHID BUVA HOME PLIN MAMI PGLI Average<br />
(exc. SHID)<br />
Net sales [Rp bn] 83 88 21 594 38 7<br />
Gross Profit [Rp bn] 57 67 10 297 21 4<br />
Operating profit [Rp bn] 6 28 2 69 4 0.1<br />
Net profit [Rp bn] 7 15 [1.4] 38 2 0.08<br />
Total assets [Rp bn] 1,242 1,110 173 4,359 681 45<br />
Total liabilities [Rp bn] 326 397 62 1,517 92 8<br />
Total equity [Rp bn] 916 712 112 2,336 589 37<br />
Growth YoY<br />
Net sales [%] 17.9 10.7 33.8 36.3 24.2 4.2 21.8<br />
Gross Profit [%] 21.1 18.8 18.5 31.4 17.5 [4.1] 29.0<br />
Operating profit [%] 327.0 4.5 [223.5] [49.4] 68.0 [28.6] [45.8]<br />
Net profit [%] 98.9 3.5 [39.1] [60.9] 79.2 [20.0] [7.5]<br />
Profitability<br />
Gross profit margin [%] 68.2 75.9 47.6 49.9 54.7 50.0 55.6<br />
Operating profit margin [%] 6.7 31.6 10.2 11.6 11.1 1.4 13.1<br />
Net profit margin [%] 8.2 16.9 [6.8] 6.4 5.0 1.1 4.5<br />
ROA [%] 0.5 1.3 [0.8] 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.4<br />
ROE [%] 0.7 2.1 [1.3] 1.6 0.3 0.2 0.6<br />
Leverage<br />
DER [x] 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.4<br />
Source: Bloomberg, Pefindo Equity & Index Valuation Division<br />
October 15 th , 2012 Page 8 of 12 pages
TARGET PRICE<br />
“Disclaimer statement in the last page<br />
is an integral part of this report”<br />
www.pefindo.com<br />
VALUATION<br />
Methodology<br />
<strong>Hotel</strong> <strong>Sahid</strong> <strong>Jaya</strong> <strong>International</strong>, <strong>Tbk</strong><br />
We apply income approach using Discounted Cash Flows (DCF) as the main<br />
valuation approach considering the income growth is a value driver in SHID<br />
instead of asset growth.<br />
Furthermore, we also apply Guideline Company Method (GCM) as comparison<br />
method.<br />
This valuation is based on 100% shares price as of October 12 th , 2012, using<br />
SHID’s financial report as of June 30 th , 2012, for our fundamental analysis.<br />
Value Estimation<br />
We use Cost of Capital of 12.64% and Cost of Equity 13.40% of based on the<br />
following assumptions:<br />
Table 4: Assumption<br />
Risk free rate [%]* 5.9<br />
Risk premium [%]* 6.2<br />
Beta [x]* 1.2<br />
Cost of Equity [%] 13.4<br />
Marginal Tax Rate [%] 25.0<br />
Interest Bearing Debt to Equity Ratio<br />
[%]<br />
October 15 th , 2012 Page 9 of 12 pages<br />
17.3<br />
WACC [%] 12.6<br />
Source: Bloomberg, Pefindo Equity & Index Valuation Division Estimates<br />
* as of October 12 th , 2012<br />
Target price for 12 months based on valuation as per October 12 th , 2012, is<br />
as follows:<br />
Using DCF method with discount rate assumption 12.64%, is Rp 420 -<br />
Rp 480 per share.<br />
Using GCM method (PBV 0.49X and P/E 33.98x) is Rp 400 – Rp 550<br />
per share.<br />
In order to obtain a value which represents both value indications, we have<br />
weighted both DCF and GCM methods by 70%:30%.<br />
Based on the above calculation, target price of SHID for 12 month is Rp 415<br />
- Rp 500 per share.<br />
Table 5: Summary of DCF Method Valuation<br />
Conservative Moderate Optimist<br />
PV of Free Cash Flows – [Rp, bn] 150 158 165<br />
PV Terminal Value – [Rp bn] 467 490 515<br />
Non-Operating Assets – [Rp, bn] 15 15 15<br />
Net Debt – [Rp, bn] (159) (159) (159)<br />
Total Equity Value – [Rp bn] 472 504 537<br />
Number of Share, [mn shares] 1,119 1,119 1,119<br />
Fair Value per Share, [Rp] 420 450 480<br />
Source: Pefindo Equity & Index Valuation Division Estimates
Table 6: GCM Comparison<br />
“Disclaimer statement in the last page<br />
is an integral part of this report”<br />
www.pefindo.com<br />
SHID<br />
P/E [x] 33.98<br />
P/BV [x] 0.49<br />
Source: Bloomberg, Pefindo Equity & Index Valuation Division<br />
Table 7: Summary of GCM Method Valuation<br />
Multiple [x] Est. EPS [Rp] Est. BV/share [Rp] Value [Rp]<br />
P/E 33.14 16.1 - 550<br />
P/BV 0.48 - 818.9 400<br />
Source: Bloomberg, Pefindo Equity & Index Valuation Division Estimates<br />
Table 8: Fair Value Reconciliation<br />
Fair Value per Share [Rp]<br />
DCF GCM Average<br />
Upper limit 480 550 500<br />
Bottom limit 420 400 415<br />
Weight 70% 30%<br />
Source: Pefindo Equity & Index Valuation Division Estimates<br />
<strong>Hotel</strong> <strong>Sahid</strong> <strong>Jaya</strong> <strong>International</strong>, <strong>Tbk</strong><br />
October 15 th , 2012 Page 10 of 12 pages
Table 9: Income Statement<br />
“Disclaimer statement in the last page<br />
is an integral part of this report”<br />
www.pefindo.com<br />
(Rp bn)<br />
2009 2010 2011 2012P 2013P<br />
Sales 100 124 164 213 269<br />
Cost of sales (40) (46) (51) (76) (99)<br />
Gross Profit 60 78 112 137 170<br />
Operating expenses (69) (73) (101) (120) (152)<br />
Income from<br />
operations<br />
(10) 5 11 16 18<br />
Other income<br />
(charges)<br />
25 13 1 5 8<br />
Pre-tax Profit 15 18 12 21 26<br />
Tax (6) 0.1 (1.9) (3) (4)<br />
Net Profit 9 18 10 18 22<br />
Source: <strong>PT</strong> <strong>Hotel</strong> <strong>Sahid</strong> <strong>Jaya</strong> <strong>International</strong> <strong>Tbk</strong>, Pefindo Equity & Index Valuation<br />
Division Estimates<br />
Table 10: Balance Sheet<br />
Assets<br />
Cash and cash equivalents<br />
(Rp bn)<br />
2009 2010 2011 2012P 2013P<br />
7 7 15 10 5<br />
Receivables 18 16 30 32 37<br />
Inventories 2 111 100 133 151<br />
Other short term assets 1 1 1 3 4<br />
Due from related parties 44 48 52 82 103<br />
Direct placements 1 1 - - -<br />
Fixed Assets 284 431 1,029 1,045 1,053<br />
Other long-term assets 264 5 9 14 16<br />
Total assets 620 619 1,237 1,319 1,369<br />
Liabilities<br />
Trade payables 67 35 52 60 78<br />
Tax payables 42 39 42 63 81<br />
Other payables 13 19 14 31 40<br />
Current maturities of bank<br />
loan<br />
30 32 0.2 2 2<br />
Current maturities of lease - - 2 0.7 0.7<br />
Other short-term liabilities 16 12 24 20 25<br />
Bank loans 97 111 130 157 118<br />
Leases - - 0.1 1 1<br />
Long-term liabilities 61 60 63 68 81<br />
Total liabilities 326 307 327 401 429<br />
Total equity 294 312 909 918 940<br />
Source: <strong>PT</strong> <strong>Hotel</strong> <strong>Sahid</strong> <strong>Jaya</strong> <strong>International</strong> <strong>Tbk</strong>, Pefindo Equity & Index Valuation<br />
Division Estimates<br />
<strong>Hotel</strong> <strong>Sahid</strong> <strong>Jaya</strong> <strong>International</strong>, <strong>Tbk</strong><br />
Figure 8: Historical P/E and P/BV<br />
October 15 th , 2012 Page 11 of 12 pages<br />
P/E<br />
4.0<br />
3.5<br />
3.0<br />
2.5<br />
2.0<br />
1.5<br />
1.0<br />
0.5<br />
0.0<br />
2009 2010 2011<br />
P/E P/BV<br />
Source: Bloomberg, Pefindo Equity & Index Valuation Division<br />
Figure 9: Historical ROA, ROE and Total Asset Turnover<br />
ROA, ROE<br />
6%<br />
5%<br />
4%<br />
3%<br />
2%<br />
1%<br />
0%<br />
2009 2010 2011<br />
TAT (x) ROA (%) ROE (%)<br />
Source: <strong>PT</strong> <strong>Hotel</strong> <strong>Sahid</strong> <strong>Jaya</strong> <strong>International</strong> <strong>Tbk</strong>, Pefindo Equity & Index Valuation Division<br />
Table 11: Key Ratios<br />
Growth [%]<br />
P/BV<br />
70.0<br />
60.0<br />
50.0<br />
40.0<br />
30.0<br />
20.0<br />
10.0<br />
2009 2010 2011 2012P 2013P<br />
Net sales 13 24 32 30 26<br />
Operating profit 17 151 123 48 13<br />
Net profit (41) 94 (44) 80 23<br />
Profitability [%]<br />
Gross margin 60 63 69 64 63<br />
Operating margin (10) 4 7 8 7<br />
Net margin 9 14 6 8 8<br />
ROA 1 3 1 2 2<br />
ROE 3 6 1 2 3<br />
Solvability [x]<br />
Debt to equity 111 99 36 44 46<br />
Debt to asset 53 50 26 30 31<br />
Source: <strong>PT</strong> <strong>Hotel</strong> <strong>Sahid</strong> <strong>Jaya</strong> <strong>International</strong> <strong>Tbk</strong>, Pefindo Equity & Index Valuation Division<br />
Estimates<br />
0.0<br />
TAT<br />
0.25<br />
0.20<br />
0.15<br />
0.10<br />
0.05<br />
0.00
“Disclaimer statement in the last page<br />
is an integral part of this report”<br />
www.pefindo.com<br />
DISCLAIMER<br />
<strong>Hotel</strong> <strong>Sahid</strong> <strong>Jaya</strong> <strong>International</strong>, <strong>Tbk</strong><br />
This report was prepared based on the SHIDted and reliable sources. Nevertheless, we do not guarantee<br />
its completeness, accuracy and adequacy. Therefore we do not responsible of any investment decision<br />
making based on this report. As for any assumptions, opinions and predictions were solely our internal<br />
judgments as per reporting date, and those judgments are subject to change without further notice.<br />
We do not responsible for mistake and negligence occurred by using this report. Last performance could<br />
not always be used as reference for future outcome. This report is not an offering recommendation,<br />
purchase or holds particular shares. This report might not be suitable for some investors. All opinion in<br />
this report has been presented fairly as per issuing date with good intentions; however it could be change<br />
at any time without further notice. The price, value or income from each share of the Company stated in<br />
this report might lower than the investor expectation and investor might obtain lower return than the<br />
invested amount. Investment is defined as the probable income that will be received in the future;<br />
nonetheless such return may possibly fluctuate. As for the Company which its share is denominated other<br />
than Rupiah, the foreign exchange fluctuation may reduce the value, price or investor investment return.<br />
This report does not contain any information for tax consideration in investment decision making.<br />
The share price target in this report is a fundamental value, not a fair market value nor a transaction price<br />
reference required by the regulations.<br />
The share price target issued by Pefindo Equity & Index Valuation Division is not a recommendation to<br />
buy, sell or hold particular shares and it could not be considered as an investment advice from Pefindo<br />
Equity & Index Valuation Division as its scope of service to, or in relation to some parties, including listed<br />
companies, financial advisor, broker, investment bank, financial institution and intermediary, in<br />
correlation with receiving rewards or any other benefits from that parties.<br />
This report is not intended for particular investor and cannot be used as part of investment objective on<br />
particular shares and neither an investment recommendation on particular s hares or an investment<br />
strategy. We strongly recommended investor to consider the suitable situation and condition at first before<br />
making decision in relation with the figure in this report. If it is necessary, kindly contact your financial<br />
advisor.<br />
<strong>PEFINDO</strong> keeps the activities of Equity Valuation separate from Ratings to preserve independence and<br />
objectivity of its analytical processes and products. <strong>PEFINDO</strong> has established policies and procedures to<br />
maintain the confidentiality of certain non-public information received in connection with each analytical<br />
process. The entire process, methodology and the database used in the preparation of the Reference<br />
Share Price Target Report as a whole is different from the processes, methodologies and databases used<br />
<strong>PEFINDO</strong> in doing the rating.<br />
This report was prepared and composed by Pefindo Equity & Index Valuation Division with the objective to<br />
enhance shares price transparency of listed companies in Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). This report is also free of<br />
other party’s influence, pressure or force either from IDX or the listed company which reviewed by Pefindo Equity &<br />
Index Valuation Division. Pefindo Equity & Index Valuation Division will earn reward amounting to Rp 20 mn<br />
each from IDX and the reviewed company for issuing report twice per year. For further information, please visit our<br />
website at http://www.pefindo.com<br />
This report is prepared and composed by Pefindo Equity & Index Valuation Division. In Indonesia, t his<br />
report is published in our website and in IDX website.<br />
October 15 th , 2012 Page 12 of 12 pages