THE EXTREME FUTURE (Part 1) - UTM
THE EXTREME FUTURE (Part 1) - UTM
THE EXTREME FUTURE (Part 1) - UTM
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TITLE:<br />
<strong>THE</strong> <strong>EXTREME</strong> <strong>FUTURE</strong><br />
‘<strong>THE</strong> TOP TRENDS THAT WILL RESHAPE <strong>THE</strong> WORLD IN <strong>THE</strong><br />
NEXT 20 YEARS’<br />
Author:<br />
James Canton,<br />
CEO and Chairman, Institute for Global Futures<br />
Reviewer:<br />
Professor Ir. Dr. Mohd. Azraai Kassim<br />
Deputy Vice Chancellor (Research & Innovation)<br />
Universiti Teknologi Malaysia<br />
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It talks about what is coming –<br />
trends, opportunities and threats to<br />
prosperity.<br />
It talks about innovations that will<br />
transform the global economy and<br />
strategies businesses must<br />
implement to compete.<br />
It is full of anecdotes, summary<br />
tables and headlines from the<br />
future.<br />
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1. To explain the Extreme Future.<br />
2. To help you better prepare for the Extreme Future.<br />
3. To enable you to adapt, shape opportunity, and avoid risks.<br />
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1. A future vision<br />
Clear vision of where you are<br />
going<br />
2. A sound strategy to get there<br />
3. Tools to<br />
persuade key<br />
people<br />
4. Effective execution<br />
Colleagues, teammates, family<br />
members, and so on – to commit<br />
to a shared vision and strategy<br />
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Climate<br />
Change<br />
Longevity<br />
Medicine<br />
Weird<br />
Science<br />
Fueling the<br />
Future<br />
Future of the<br />
individual<br />
TEN TRENDS<br />
OF <strong>THE</strong><br />
<strong>EXTREME</strong><br />
<strong>FUTURE</strong><br />
Globalization<br />
US-China<br />
Future<br />
Innovation<br />
Economy<br />
Next<br />
Workforce<br />
Securing the<br />
Future<br />
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Future<br />
Map<br />
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Solar<br />
Hydrogen<br />
BioFuels<br />
Wind<br />
Nano Tech<br />
Options<br />
Fueling<br />
the<br />
Future<br />
Issues<br />
End of Oil<br />
Nuclear<br />
Geopolitics<br />
Security<br />
Terrorism<br />
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FIVE THINGS EVERYONE NEEDS<br />
TO KNOW ABOUT ENERGY<br />
The era of cheap oil is over.<br />
Alternative energy, though<br />
promising, is not ready to<br />
produce adequate supply.<br />
We need to invest quickly in<br />
new energy sources.<br />
We need to learn to conserve<br />
energy.<br />
Energy is a national security<br />
issue.<br />
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2030 ENERGY FORECAST<br />
The global demand for energy will increase by 70<br />
percent.<br />
There will be a 50 percent increase in energy demand<br />
from developing nations, especially China and India.<br />
Energy access is an essential enabler of higher standards<br />
of living in the developing world.<br />
Increased energy access in the developed world will be<br />
necessary to sustain productivity and growth.<br />
Energy has become the leading global and national<br />
security issue.<br />
China’s energy needs will be double those of the U.S.<br />
and the EU.<br />
Renewable energy will account for more than 35<br />
percent of total global energy needs to offset reduced<br />
oil reserves.<br />
Innovations like fusion, nanotechnology, and solar will<br />
replace oil.<br />
Distributed small scale, person-to-person electricity<br />
generation will be sustainable.<br />
Breakthroughs in hydrogen and renewable energy will<br />
provide new energy supplies.<br />
A Tibetan monk cooks lunch using a simple solar<br />
energy stove at Longwu Monastery in Tongren, Qinghai<br />
province.<br />
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TOP <strong>FUTURE</strong> BENEFITS OF HYDROGEN<br />
Reliable Source Increased access to a reliable source of<br />
energy makes hydrogen worth working toward.<br />
Flexible Hydrogen can fuel personal and public<br />
transportation and numerous energy-dependent devices,<br />
engines and needs<br />
Self-Reliance Not having to count on foreign monopolies<br />
and the geopolitics of oil is worth the investment.<br />
Environmentally Friendly Hydrogen produces water as<br />
exhaust, though oil is still necessary to produce hydrogen<br />
fuel.<br />
Hydrogen Works Today We know hydrogen can provide<br />
power today – it is just too costly and is not yet ready for<br />
mass transportation use.<br />
Unlimited Access Hydrogen could be an unlimited power<br />
source.<br />
Ultimately Inexpensive and Cost-Effective If the Iraq war<br />
costs the U.S. between $500 billion and $1 trillion, and we<br />
were to invest half of that in hydrogen, we would see<br />
dramatic breakthroughs in energy-fast.<br />
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Energy will shape every aspect of<br />
the Extreme Future, from security<br />
to transportation to health care<br />
and growth.<br />
We must prepare now by investing<br />
in alternative energy sources, some<br />
through innovation like nano, and<br />
others through hydrogen.<br />
The future of nations will rise and<br />
fall, proper or decline, based on<br />
their access to energy resources.<br />
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Capital<br />
Neuro<br />
Open Markets<br />
Democracy<br />
Nano<br />
Innovation<br />
Economy Map<br />
IT<br />
Jobs<br />
Education<br />
Bio<br />
Research<br />
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TEN <strong>EXTREME</strong> INNOVATIONS THAT WILL<br />
ROCK YOUR WORLD IN 2025<br />
Teleportation of objects around the<br />
planet.<br />
Specialized DNA for sale online.<br />
Space tourism to the moon and Mars.<br />
Manipulating matter to make smart<br />
products.<br />
Four billion people doing Internet<br />
commerce.<br />
Hydrogen engines for transportation.<br />
Cybernetic health enhancement of<br />
humans.<br />
Downloading memories and drugs.<br />
Domestic robots.<br />
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<strong>THE</strong> FORMULA OF <strong>THE</strong><br />
INNOVATION ECONOMY<br />
I + C + D = P2<br />
(Innovation + Capitalism + Democracy = Prosperity and Peace)<br />
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<strong>THE</strong> TOP TEN INDUSTRIES OF <strong>THE</strong><br />
INNOVATION ECONOMY:<br />
WHO WILL BENEFIT MOST<br />
1. Pharma/Health The extension of human life<br />
and health enhancement as a result of major<br />
advances in medical, pharmaceutical, and surgical<br />
knowledge and treatments.<br />
2. Energy The development of renewable, clean,<br />
abundant, and affordable fuels.<br />
3. Manufacturing The development of new<br />
processes that will enable the global, fast,<br />
inexpensive, and on-demand production and<br />
distribution of goods.<br />
4. Communications The creation of new ways to<br />
connect information, people, and financial<br />
transactions in real time. The software, games,<br />
programs, and content.<br />
5. Transportation The discovery of new methods<br />
to increase the ability of individuals and companies<br />
to be mobile, to ship, and to reach customers.<br />
New Straits Times, Wednesday, April 4, 2012<br />
The Star, Sunday, 22 April 2012<br />
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<strong>THE</strong> TOP TEN INDUSTRIES OF <strong>THE</strong><br />
INNOVATION ECONOMY:<br />
WHO WILL BENEFIT MOST<br />
6. Security The creation of new devices that will both spare lives<br />
and increase our ability to protect our society, our allies, and<br />
ourselves.<br />
7. Entertainment Media New delivery systems to share<br />
ideas, culture, and fun that will make the existing Internet and<br />
currently available electronic entertainment devices seem as<br />
quaint and outdated as windup toys.<br />
8. Education and Learning The creation of immediate,<br />
portable, transferable, on-demand knowledge sources on a<br />
scale equivalent to the Library of Congress.<br />
9. Knowledge Engineering The creation of information<br />
services that can morph into games, finance, software,<br />
programs, and systems to provide value to consumers and<br />
business for better customer service, entertainment, marketing,<br />
planning, and managing.<br />
10. Smart Materials New nano-bio-neuro materials that are<br />
smarter, safer, cleaner, and cheaper to make into any products,<br />
on-demand, for any industry.<br />
Utusan Malaysia, Isnin, 7 November 2011<br />
The Wall Street Journal, Wednesday, April 18, 2012<br />
The Star, Friday, 25 November 2011<br />
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Renewable<br />
Energy<br />
Longevity<br />
Medicine<br />
Space<br />
Personal<br />
Security<br />
TOP<br />
INNOVATION<br />
MARKETS BY<br />
2025<br />
Clean Tech<br />
Nano<br />
Manufacturing<br />
Human<br />
Enhancement<br />
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TOP NANOTECH <strong>FUTURE</strong>S : 2020<br />
Hydrogen-nano and solar-energy systems.<br />
Smart nanomaterials that self-assemble.<br />
Nanomimetics; products, devices, and materials<br />
that mimic nature’s abilities.<br />
Pollution-eating nano agents that clean the<br />
environment.<br />
Nano-manufacturing foundries for rapid, ondemand<br />
production.<br />
Nanobiometrics that provide security scans.<br />
Military nano weapons.<br />
Nano-enabled robots.<br />
Nano-enabled medical diagnostics that probe<br />
our genes and bodies.<br />
Nano-bio devices that heal, prevent illness, and<br />
restore capabilities.<br />
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TOP BIOTECH <strong>FUTURE</strong>S: 2020<br />
Genetic vaccines<br />
Gene-replacement therapy<br />
Human-enhancement genetic testing<br />
Genomic disease prevention<br />
Genetic restoration therapy<br />
Biocognitive augmentation<br />
Bioengineered organs<br />
Memory and personality<br />
biorestoration<br />
Longevity medicine<br />
Studying the science of sensation<br />
New Straits Times, Tuesday, May 15, 2012<br />
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TOP NEUROTECH <strong>FUTURE</strong>S : 2020<br />
Stem-cell therapy for restoring memory.<br />
Brain-machine implants into the cerebral cortex<br />
to activate mobility after paralysis.<br />
Silicon, nano-retinas to provide sight – direct<br />
sensory awareness into the brain, bypassing the<br />
eyes.<br />
Age reversal on cancerous cells using neuropharmacology.<br />
Genomic neurotherapy to reprogram diseasecausing<br />
genes.<br />
Enabling neurons that control robotic arms and<br />
legs – human cybernetics.<br />
Neural engineering to rewire the brain to<br />
combat mental illness and depression.<br />
Brain Research<br />
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TOP INFOTECH <strong>FUTURE</strong>S:<br />
The Internet has become the largest<br />
global network for ideas, commerce,<br />
health care, and education.<br />
Future chips include nanotech,<br />
photonics, quantum, biotech, or DNA.<br />
More than 100 billion chips will connect<br />
every product and most people.<br />
Future computers have become<br />
wearable devices.<br />
Seamless wireless mobility enables<br />
communication with everyone,<br />
everywhere on the planet.<br />
Anywhere and always-on Internet<br />
connectivity is free.<br />
2025<br />
New Straits Times, Friday, April 6, 2012<br />
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EIGHT FUNDAMENTAL NEW INNOVATIONS<br />
THAT WILL SHAPE <strong>THE</strong> <strong>FUTURE</strong><br />
1. Biomimetics Mimicking nature’s mechanisms to make new products.<br />
2. Photonics The use of light to create new products.<br />
3. Nanobiotech The combination of nanotech and biology.<br />
4. Targeted Genomics The use of genetic information to make safer drugs,<br />
foods, and devices.<br />
5. Biodetection The use of biological information to detect risks.<br />
6. Neuro-devices The creation of micro-machines to enhance or fix brain<br />
functions.<br />
7. Nanoenergy The combination of nanotech and energy to create renewable<br />
fuels.<br />
8. Quantum Encryption The use of quantum computing to protect networks,<br />
products, and people.<br />
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HOW TO KILL <strong>THE</strong> <strong>FUTURE</strong> OF<br />
YOUR ECONOMY OR COMPANY<br />
Don’t invest in innovation, science, or technology.<br />
Don’t develop, acquire, or protect intellectual property.<br />
Don’t fix the education system.<br />
Hold back on immigration.<br />
Stop training workers to invent innovation.<br />
Restrict investment capital and liquidity.<br />
Limit personal privacy.<br />
Allow terrorism and crime to persist.<br />
Don’t protect individual freedoms; no free press, no free trade.<br />
Create barriers to free enterprise.<br />
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HOW TO GROW <strong>FUTURE</strong><br />
PROSPERITY<br />
1. Upgrade advanced science programs in high schools and colleges.<br />
2. Create a new incentive program to encourage youth to become<br />
scientists, engineers, and tech-savvy entrepreneurs.<br />
3. Teach innovation and entrepreneurship to everyone.<br />
4. Support free trade, free press, open markets, and free enterprise<br />
worldwide.<br />
5. Adopt rule of law for intellectual- property protection.<br />
6. Seed venture capital investments in new innovations.<br />
7. Bring on the Internet and give it to everyone.<br />
8. Learn about nano-bio-IT-neuro innovations.<br />
9. Support radical ideas that may disrupt the status quo.<br />
10. Reward individuals for being innovative.<br />
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<strong>THE</strong> TOP TEN WORKFORCE<br />
TRENDS<br />
1. A global war for talent will be the top driver of competitive<br />
advantage, pitting nations, individuals, and companies<br />
against one another as talent grows scarce.<br />
2. The future of the workforce should not be defined by<br />
geography, but by talent.<br />
3. The aging of the population in America and Europe will<br />
have dramatic effects on society and the economy.<br />
4. Hispanics and women will dominate the future U.S.<br />
workforce.<br />
5. Women will comprise a high percentage of new workers<br />
and leaders forever changing the politics of boardrooms and<br />
markets.<br />
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<strong>THE</strong> TOP TEN WORKFORCE<br />
TRENDS<br />
6. Increased immigration will be necessary to enable available<br />
talent to keep up with the demands of business and society.<br />
7. Finding high-tech skilled employees form a global talent<br />
pool will be the greatest challenge for every organization<br />
and every nation.<br />
8. Innovation will be a key driver of workforce skills, requiring<br />
the education system to be completely overhauled.<br />
9. The domestic workforce will grow more slowly because of<br />
dangerously lower fertility rates.<br />
10. Workforce crises that arise in the near future will be<br />
traceable to the lack of skilled workers.<br />
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A positive<br />
outlook on the<br />
future.<br />
Family and<br />
community<br />
involvement; a<br />
commitment to<br />
values.<br />
Higher<br />
education.<br />
Acquiring<br />
science and tech<br />
skills.<br />
Financial<br />
awareness skills<br />
and personal<br />
money<br />
management.<br />
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WHY EDUCATION MUST CHANGE TO<br />
PREPARE <strong>THE</strong> <strong>FUTURE</strong> WORKFORCE<br />
1. The current education system has failed to complete its most<br />
vital and strategic mandate; preparing the workforce for<br />
the future.<br />
2. Education does not have the leadership, guts, or vision to<br />
reinvent itself.<br />
3. Most schools, kindergarten through college, are not in sync<br />
with changes in the marketplace – more competitive, more<br />
complex, more global, more innovation-driven.<br />
4. Without educational change, more companies will<br />
outsource to find skilled talent offshore, creating<br />
unemployment in the U.S.<br />
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WHY EDUCATION MUST CHANGE TO<br />
PREPARE <strong>THE</strong> <strong>FUTURE</strong> WORKFORCE<br />
5. Teachers are not the problem. Pay teachers double and<br />
retrain them for the Innovation Economy. Measure their<br />
performance, hire the best, and fire the slackers.<br />
6. Political leaders have lacked the courage to create a<br />
Future-Ready national innovation curriculum: more science,<br />
more innovation, more high-tech, a more global outlook,<br />
more entrepreneurial skills.<br />
7. We are teaching kids about the past. We need to teach<br />
kids about the future. How to survive in the Extreme<br />
Future.<br />
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Neuro-Medical Techs<br />
Person Protectors: Personal<br />
Security Techs<br />
Organ Cloners<br />
Biofuture Therapists<br />
Quantum Scientists<br />
Real-Time Business Executives<br />
Online Consumer-Marketing<br />
Wizards<br />
Health Enhancement Therapists<br />
Cancer Enablers<br />
Online Consumer Marketing<br />
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Knowledge<br />
Management<br />
Advisors<br />
On-Demand<br />
Supply-Chain<br />
Designers<br />
Nano-Bio<br />
Entrepreneurs<br />
Global<br />
Headhunters<br />
Artists, Writers,<br />
Poets<br />
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