Special energy cargoes/LPG - www .iene .gr

Special energy cargoes/LPG - www .iene .gr Special energy cargoes/LPG - www .iene .gr

07.04.2013 Views

OPEC PRODUCTION CRUCIAL 34 32 30 28 26 24 1995-01 1997-01 Opec production (incl. Angola) 1000 bpd Baltic $/day (right axis) 1999-01 2001-01 Source: Joachim Grieg 2003-01 2005-01 2007-01 2009-01 2011-01 90 75 60 45 30 15 0 150 135 120 105 90 75 60 1995-01 1997-01 No VLGCs Baltic $/day (right axis) • Fleet supply booms rather an exception in VLGC shipping • Clearly supply driven market in terms of volumes: lackluster 2011 but still record additions • Increase in VLGC rates due to LNG output, much less because of OPEC additions 1999-01 2001-01 2003-01 2005-01 2007-01 2009-01 2011-01 90 75 60 45 30 15 0 9

MEG KEY PLAYER 40 30 20 10 0 5,8 Middle East LPG supply (Mio ton) 7,2 10,2 • Increasing volumes will be on account of the VLGCs and sourced from mainly 3 players: Qatar, Abu Dhabi and Saudi Arabia (+/ (+/-) • Qatar added 3mio ton of trade in 2011 • Saudi exports still strong in 2011 despite pledge to massive direct LPG to petchem markets ⇒ Strong Strong increase increase expected expected of of LPG LPG volumes volumes to to 70 70 mio mio ton ton 11,4 12 12,8 13,3 5,2 6,2 7,3 8,1 9,1 10,1 11,1 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Abu Dhabi Iran Kuwait Qatar Saudi Arabia Sharjah Bahrain Oman Source: Joachim Grieg 10

OPEC PRODUCTION CRUCIAL<br />

34<br />

32<br />

30<br />

28<br />

26<br />

24<br />

1995-01<br />

1997-01<br />

Opec production (incl. Angola) 1000 bpd<br />

Baltic $/day (right axis)<br />

1999-01<br />

2001-01<br />

Source: Joachim Grieg<br />

2003-01<br />

2005-01<br />

2007-01<br />

2009-01<br />

2011-01<br />

90<br />

75<br />

60<br />

45<br />

30<br />

15<br />

0<br />

150<br />

135<br />

120<br />

105<br />

90<br />

75<br />

60<br />

1995-01<br />

1997-01<br />

No VLGCs Baltic $/day (right axis)<br />

• Fleet supply booms rather an exception in VLGC shipping<br />

• Clearly supply driven market in terms of volumes:<br />

lackluster 2011 but still record additions<br />

• Increase in VLGC rates due to LNG output, much less<br />

because of OPEC additions<br />

1999-01<br />

2001-01<br />

2003-01<br />

2005-01<br />

2007-01<br />

2009-01<br />

2011-01<br />

90<br />

75<br />

60<br />

45<br />

30<br />

15<br />

0<br />

9

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