Aggarwal Impex(Indian company)

Come and Join our global Network

We deal in the following products:
•Canadian and US Origin Peas and Flax seed,
•Indian & African Origin Sesame Seed, Groundnut.
•Indian Origin Rice , Sugar, Chilies etc.
•Soybean Meal, Rapeseed Meal, Corn etc.
•Malaysian Oil
•Sunflower Oil
•We also Import Moong beans, Red kidney Beans & Light
Speckled Kidney beans.

Ladies & Gentleman
I would like to thank you, for giving me the
opportunity to share with you the Indian
Peas and linseed demand and Supply
Scenario

Indian Yellow Peas Average
Import Figures:
Origin Quantity
Canada 1.2 Million MT
France 700,000 MT
Ukraine & Russia 150,000 MT
Local Crop 100,000 MT

Total Annual Consumption
is about 2.15 Million MT

I believe this entire discussion is
important to be able to
understand the total demand
from the Sleeping Tiger (as India
is affectionately called by the
world) and China also known as
the Roaring Lion to be able to
determine the future price trend.

In order to fully understand the
dynamics of the Supply and Demand
side for Peas in the current year let
me narrate a story that I heard as a
Child

Long Long ago, there was a young
Shepherd boy who was bored of being
in the jungle alone and wanted to
make his life interesting. So lets see
what he does..

Similarly this year, before the new
crop arrivals started in North America
and the CIS Countries we were
hearing of perfect growing
conditions, good seeding and that the
crop size would be higher by about
30% as compared to last year in
Canada, USA, Russia & Ukraine

This was like our Shepherd boy
shouting “ BIG CROP” “BIG CROP”

So India stopped buying for prompt
shipment since May 2012 as they
feared that the prices will crash..

The Suppliers from USA and Canada
Started Selling AugSept, SeptOct,
2012 Crop Shipment

So now see what happens in our little
Shepherd Boy’s story….

So the Shepherd boy was happy, that
he had fooled the innocent villagers
India and China are happy as Canada
& USA sold their new crop yellow Peas
cheap ;)

The new crop estimates from Canada
& USA have started coming and the
new crop is much smaller than earlier
estimated
Local prices at origins have gone up
but there are NO BUYERS

We in India bought between USD 390
to USD 425 CNF in conventional
Vessel
2 vessels for Calcutta Port and about
7 vessels for Mumbai Port
Total estimated quantity of about
350,000 MT, for Aug to Oct
Shipment.

Although 350,000 MT seems to be a big quantity it may
really not be so big as our closing stocks is very low.
Our closing Stock estimates as on Aug 2012 are as
follows:
Ports Average Closing Stock
Mumbai 150,000 50,000 MT
Calcutta 150,000 35,000 MT
Others 100,000 35,000 MT
Total 500,000 120,000MT

Now let us talk about the Total
Canadian & USA Crop

Canada Production and export
Summary:

Pacific Rim are the countries that lie along the Pacific Ocean and would
include.
Australia, China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, New Zealand,
Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Indonesia, Vietnam.
For the purpose of this discussion the Indian sub continental demand
is also added to this figure:

Estimated Break up of Pea Crop in
Yellow & Green Peas in Canada

Yellow
Peas
US Production Summary
2009
% 2010 %
2011
456627 54% 374447 58% 142276 51%
Green Peas 395836 46% 268731 42% 136784 49%
Total 852508 100% 643178 100% 279060
%

At this point will also like to draw your attention to
the following factors which will have a substantial
impact on the global demand & Supply and thus the
prices.
We have drought in Europe
& also weather disturbances in North & Central
America.
I believe there imports will rise substantially
Also as feed prices are going up, a lot of the feed
companies will buy yellow peas instead of corn &
Soybean meal

We had almost a similar situation in 2010.So
let us see what happened in the year 2010
Europe had imported more than 128,017 MT
Visa vis 38,000 in 2009 and 22,000 in 2010
Also the Imports made by pacific Rim was
higher to 2.6 Million MT as Compared to 1.9
million MT in 2009 & 1.8 million MT in 2011.
This was due to the lower availability of
Yellow Peas from France,Russia and Ukraine .

This was due to the fact that Imports into India from France,
Russia & Ukraine were only about 250000 MT instead of
850000 MT say in 2011
This year also there are not many offers from France .
Russian and Ukrainian origin peas are expensive due to
European demand for feed.
So I believe India Imports this year from Canada will be higher
as Compared to last year.
Now the Roaring lion China’s demand for Peas holds the key to
be able to determine the total demand as well as the price…….
In 2010 China Imported only 350,000 MT.
In 2011 China Imported 7,30,000 MT so now in 2012 will China
Cross the Million figure???
Will you Import more than 1 Million???

To further complicate, we must also consider
the
Currency Effect:
The Indian currency has been stable for some
time between Rs 55.25 to 55.75 for 1 USD.
However the Canadian dollar is up 6.5% in
last 3 months adding over USD 25 PMT to the
cost an all pulses

Low yield Effect:
The harvest in US and Canada is progressing well.
However the yields on all the crops are lower by 10 to 15%
This has two effects:
1) Most growers will not have Surplus products that does not fit in their
Silos. Hence, they will not have harvest pressure
2) Many growers have forward Sales Contracts with lower yields there
Sales book which earlier showed may be 40% of their estimated crop
may now show 50% to 60% of their Sales of crop as being pre sold.
3) The Canadian farmer is getting record prices for soyabean, wheat,
corn and rapeseed etc and is under no pressure to sell peas.
This will further reduce any harvest pressure.
So in effect farmers will not Sell new crop peas cheap

Europe is buying yellow Peas for around USD 365
FOB levels.
If one adds USD 20 for human consumption quality
we can say USD 385 FOB in conventional Vessel is the
minimum price , that we would see in the current
year.

STACK:
ERROR: stackunderflow
OFFENDING COMMAND: ~