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Table II: Effect of Taxes on Cigarette Demand - Extensive and Intensive Margins Extensive Margin Intensive Margin (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Excise Tax -0.144 ∗∗∗ -0.116 ∗∗∗ -0.117 ∗∗∗ -6.588 ∗∗∗ -6.299 ∗∗∗ -6.546 ∗∗∗ (0.034) (0.034) (0.035) (0.987) (0.985) (0.998) Sales Tax -0.404 ∗∗ -0.165 -0.165 -3.846 -2.608 -2.879 (0.184) (0.133) (0.135) (5.233) (6.297) (6.408) Income -0.096 ∗∗∗ -0.096 ∗∗∗ -0.078 ∗∗∗ 0.004 0.003 1.756 ∗∗∗ (0.005) (0.005) (0.009) (0.195) (0.195) (0.277) Female -0.041 ∗∗∗ -0.041 ∗∗∗ -0.041 ∗∗∗ -3.455 ∗∗∗ -3.455 ∗∗∗ -3.458 ∗∗∗ (0.003) (0.003) (0.003) (0.139) (0.140) (0.140) White 0.086 ∗∗∗ 0.086 ∗∗∗ 0.086 ∗∗∗ 6.404 ∗∗∗ 6.404 ∗∗∗ 6.405 ∗∗∗ (0.007) (0.007) (0.007) (0.172) (0.172) (0.171) H.S. Grad -0.057 ∗∗∗ -0.057 ∗∗∗ -0.057 ∗∗∗ -1.258 ∗∗∗ -1.258 ∗∗∗ -1.261 ∗∗∗ (0.010) (0.010) (0.010) (0.251) (0.251) (0.253) College Grad -0.121 ∗∗∗ -0.121 ∗∗∗ -0.121 ∗∗∗ -1.832 ∗∗∗ -1.833 ∗∗∗ -1.835 ∗∗∗ (0.006) (0.006) (0.005) (0.160) (0.161) (0.162) Married -0.066 ∗∗∗ -0.066 ∗∗∗ -0.066 ∗∗∗ -0.369 ∗∗∗ -0.369 ∗∗∗ -0.360 ∗∗∗ (0.002) (0.002) (0.002) (0.083) (0.083) (0.084) Unemployed 0.087 ∗∗∗ 0.088 ∗∗∗ 0.088 ∗∗∗ 1.003 ∗∗∗ 1.004 ∗∗∗ 1.036 ∗∗∗ (0.005) (0.005) (0.005) (0.139) (0.138) (0.142) Age 0.034 ∗∗∗ 0.034 ∗∗∗ 0.034 ∗∗∗ -0.229 -0.228 -0.238 (0.006) (0.006) (0.005) (0.229) (0.229) (0.230) Age2 -0.001 ∗∗∗ -0.001 ∗∗∗ -0.001 ∗∗∗ 0.028 ∗∗∗ 0.028 ∗∗∗ 0.029 ∗∗∗ (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.008) (0.008) (0.008) Age3 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.001 ∗∗∗ -0.001 ∗∗∗ -0.001 ∗∗∗ (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) Age4 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ∗∗∗ 0.000 ∗∗∗ 0.000 ∗∗∗ (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) Log Unemp. Rate -0.031 ∗∗∗ -0.031 ∗∗∗ -0.128 -0.148 (0.009) (0.009) (0.306) (0.307) Log State Income -0.012 -0.012 0.573 0.638 (0.035) (0.035) (0.859) (0.849) Income Trend -0.002 -0.219 ∗∗∗ (0.001) (0.027) Economic Conditions x x x x Income Trend x x F-stat 1.98 0.13 0.12 0.25 0.32 0.31 prob>F 0.17 0.72 0.73 0.62 0.57 0.58 N 934,106 934,106 934,106 198,914 198,914 198,914 Standard errors clustered at the state level in parentheses. All specifications include individual demographic characteristics and state, year, and calendar month fixed effects. The F-stat is for the test of equality between the excise tax and the sales tax coefficients. ∗ p < 0.10, ∗∗ p < 0.05, ∗∗∗ p < 0.01 40
Table III: Effect of Taxes on Cigarette Demand - Overall Effect (1) (2) (3) Excise Tax -4.182 ∗∗∗ -3.586 ∗∗∗ -3.668 ∗∗∗ (0.576) (0.578) (0.578) Sales Tax -8.414 ∗∗∗ -3.664 -3.731 (2.397) (2.516) (2.513) Economic Conditions x x Income Trend x F-stat 2.82 0.00 0.00 prob>F 0.09 0.98 0.98 N 934,106 934,106 934,106 Standard errors clustered at the state level in parentheses. All specifications include individual demographic characteristics and state, year, and calendar month fixed effects. The F-stat is for the test of equality between the excise tax and the sales tax coefficients. ∗ p < 0.10, ∗∗ p < 0.05, ∗∗∗ p < 0.01 41
Page 1 and 2: Smoke Gets in Your Eyes: Cigarette
Page 3 and 4: cigarette’s posted price, and a s
Page 5 and 6: form BCi : (p +tp +tr)xi + yi ≤ M
Page 7 and 8: tax types: R(tp,tr) = (tp +tr)(xA +
Page 9 and 10: ∂yB = −x. ∂tr Substituting th
Page 11 and 12: consumers. An implication of the re
Page 13 and 14: Data on state-level cigarette excis
Page 15 and 16: variable (y) represents cigarette d
Page 17 and 18: and is not statistically significan
Page 19 and 20: Table IV presents our results. Colu
Page 21 and 22: D. Tax Base Differences Between the
Page 23 and 24: more by income in non-exempt states
Page 25 and 26: with the variable assigned a value
Page 27 and 28: to cigarette register taxes decline
Page 29 and 30: References [1] Becker, Gary, Michae
Page 31 and 32: Appendix A: Welfare Analysis Under
Page 33 and 34: Again, the first term represents a
Page 35 and 36: Appendix C: A Cognitive Cost Model
Page 37 and 38: income yields: ∂Gi ∂Mi = 1 2 t2
Page 39: Table I: Summary of Cigarette Tax C
Page 43 and 44: Table V: Effect of Taxes on Cigaret
Page 45 and 46: Table VII: Sales Tax Exemptions for
Page 47 and 48: Table IX: Instrumenting for Price w
Page 49 and 50: Table XI: Alternative Demand Models
Page 51 and 52: Table XIII: State Trends Extensive
Page 53 and 54: Figure II: Aggregate Cigarette Cons

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