Goldin & Homonoff - DataSpace at Princeton University

Goldin & Homonoff - DataSpace at Princeton University Goldin & Homonoff - DataSpace at Princeton University

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negative), implying a low value for ∂x . Similarly, on average, poor households spend a substantially ∂Mi larger fraction of their income on cigarettes compared to rich households (Chaloupka and Warner 2000), which implies that ∂ µ ∂εx,p < 0. Finally, the sign of ∂Mi ∂Mi hinges on whether low- or high-income consumers are more sensitive to cigarette prices. The empirical literature on this question is mixed, with most studies concluding that low-income smokers are slightly more price sensitive and other studies finding the opposite. In our data, we find the differences in price-sensitivity between rich and poor smokers to be negligible, implying that ∂εx,p ∂Mi is small in magnitude. As a whole, our model suggests that attentiveness to cigarette register taxes should decline by income. Low-income consumers suffer more when they over-spend on y because their marginal utility of wealth is greater than that of high-income consumers. Although the magnitude of the optimization error will in general be larger for high-income consumers (the difference between their intended and realized bundles is bigger), this factor is mitigated in the case of cigarettes by the fact that smoking demand is relatively insensitive to income and by the fact that low-income consumers spend a substantially higher fraction of their income on cigarettes compared to high-income consumers. 38

Table I: Summary of Cigarette Tax Changes Excise Tax Sales Tax Pre-Tax Price 1984 2000 1984 2000 1984 2000 Minimum 0.29 0.36 0.0 0.0 0.91 1.84 Maximum 0.68 1.43 7.5 7.5 1.28 2.47 Mean 0.50 0.75 3.8 5.0 1.03 2.20 # State Changes 91 45 # Federal Changes 3 n/a Excise tax and price are in 2000 dollars; sales tax in percent. 39

neg<strong>at</strong>ive), implying a low value for ∂x . Similarly, on average, poor households spend a substantially<br />

∂Mi<br />

larger fraction of their income on cigarettes compared to rich households (Chaloupka and Warner 2000),<br />

which implies th<strong>at</strong><br />

∂ µ<br />

∂εx,p<br />

< 0. Finally, the sign of ∂Mi ∂Mi<br />

hinges on whether low- or high-income consumers<br />

are more sensitive to cigarette prices. The empirical liter<strong>at</strong>ure on this question is mixed, with most<br />

studies concluding th<strong>at</strong> low-income smokers are slightly more price sensitive and other studies finding<br />

the opposite. In our d<strong>at</strong>a, we find the differences in price-sensitivity between rich and poor smokers to be<br />

negligible, implying th<strong>at</strong> ∂εx,p<br />

∂Mi<br />

is small in magnitude.<br />

As a whole, our model suggests th<strong>at</strong> <strong>at</strong>tentiveness to cigarette register taxes should decline by income.<br />

Low-income consumers suffer more when they over-spend on y because their marginal utility of wealth<br />

is gre<strong>at</strong>er than th<strong>at</strong> of high-income consumers. Although the magnitude of the optimiz<strong>at</strong>ion error will in<br />

general be larger for high-income consumers (the difference between their intended and realized bundles<br />

is bigger), this factor is mitig<strong>at</strong>ed in the case of cigarettes by the fact th<strong>at</strong> smoking demand is rel<strong>at</strong>ively<br />

insensitive to income and by the fact th<strong>at</strong> low-income consumers spend a substantially higher fraction of<br />

their income on cigarettes compared to high-income consumers.<br />

38

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