IHgIIOJOHIj - World Health Organization Regional Office for Europe

pHCKa BO3HHKHOBeHH5I palm Ha ypOBHe HHn11BHnyanbHOr0 aHanH3a
(cM. Pa3nen 3.6.1).
KOrna MbI nonXOnHM K 06Cy)KneHHK) CMepTHOCTH B pe3ynbTaTe
pa3nH1IHbIX cep,IkeiiHbIX 3a60neBaHHI%I, ponb anxoronA BbI3bIBaeT
6O11bIHHe CnOpbl, H CCbIJIKH Ha cDyHKuHIO pHCKa J-06pa3HOIi (1)OpMbI
npOBOuHpyK)T npoTHBopetHe. OTTOJIOCKH 3THX CnOpOB 6b1nH rice
HCCnenOBaHbI B rnaBe 3(Pa3nen 3.5) B OTHOluexxH jjaxxblx
HHnHBHnyanbHOrO yposHA. ECM! B3aHMOCB513b J-o6pa3HO1i (loOpMbI
AeIiCTBHTenbHa, TO 06LuHiï 3(14)eKT nnA HaceneHHA ,Ijon)KeH
npoBepATbcA aHanH3OM 061xe1i B3aHMOCB513H. B O,I;HOM TaKOM
aHanH3e (Skog 1983) npeAnonaraeTcA HanHHHe 3auIHTHOro 3cf4eKTa
ânKOronA npH BO3HHKHOBeHHH HHIeMHLIecxoii 6One3HH cepnua y
HeKOTOpbIX KaTerOpHli HaCeneHHA C HH3KHM nOTpe6neHHeM, XOTA B
mime CTaTHCTHIIeCKOii 3Ha*-IHMOCTH 3Ta KoppenxuHA HaXOAHTCA Ha
npenene. Heo6xonHM 6onee neTanbHbni aHanH3 3THX KpHBbIX, no
Toro KaK Mo)KeT 6bITb CnenaHO n1o6Oe yBepeHHOe 3axnlotieHHe Ha
yposxe HaceneHHA.
4.3.4 CMepTHOCTb B pe3yJlbTaTe LiNpp03a
CMepTHOCTb OT uHpp03a ABnAeTCA xnaCCHLIeCKHM HHAHKaTOpOM
nbAHCTBa, H en ynenAeTCSA OrpOMHOe BHHMaHHe B HCCneAOBâHHAX no
anKOrOnIO. CoyHKuHA pHCKa iieTKO yCTaHOBneHa B KOHTpOnbHbIX
HCCneAOBaHHAX cJIyiiaes 60ne3H14 (Pe(1Ulgnot et al 1978) H, KaK rice
ynOMHHanOCb, 6bIJI0 o6Hapy)KeHO, L(TO (IyHKuHA nOT3TH 3KCn0HeHTHa.
3T0 03HaLIaeT, iiTO BnHAHHe Ha pHCK npH nâ.HHOM nOBbIIIICHHH
nOTpe6neHHA 3aBHCHT OT ypOBHSI nOTpe6neHH5t, Ha HH3KHX ypOBHAX
pHCK nOBbIIIIaeTCA HeHaMHOrO, B TO spew' KaK Ha BbICOKHX ypOBHAX
noTpe6neHHA er0 pOCT BeCbMa 3HaLIHTeneH. CneAyIOÜwii BbIBOn
COCTOHT B TOM, LITO 6OnbIIIHHCTBO cJIyiiaes o6Hapy)ICHBaeTCA CpeAH
3noynOTpe6nsloluxx anKOroneM. AHanH3 BpeMeHHbIX cepHli B
HeCKOnbKHX CTpaHaX (c npHMeHeHHeM ARIMA-MOnenH) noATBepAHJI
BbIBOnbI npenbInyII.[HX HCCnenOBâHHH o6 o6üZeii B3aHMOCB513H Mexcny
nOTpe6neHHeM H uHppo3OM, KOTOpble OCHOBbIBânHCb Ha
HC11Onb30BâHHH 6onee npOCTbIX McTOAOB (Skog 1984; Norstrom
1987a,b; Thorsen 1990). B o61ueM, oTSeTHaA peaxuHA 6onee HeM
nponopuHOHanbHa, 3a HCKnIOLIeHHeM OiieHb HH3KHX ypOBHeH
nOTpe6neHHA, me 6onbulaSl nOnA He CB5I3aHHbIX C anKOTOneM
CMepTeH nenaeT OTBeTHyK) peaxuHlo Mexee rH6KO1i. 3To
HanpasneHHe HCCnenOSaHHiï TaKX(e paCIIIHpHna Haute noHHMaxxe
cbOpMbI BpeMeHHOrO oTCTaBaHHA (CM. 4.4.1). ,r(aHHbMe HCCnenoBaHHIi
137