05.04.2013 Views

IHgIIOJOHIj - World Health Organization Regional Office for Europe

IHgIIOJOHIj - World Health Organization Regional Office for Europe

IHgIIOJOHIj - World Health Organization Regional Office for Europe

SHOW MORE
SHOW LESS

Create successful ePaper yourself

Turn your PDF publications into a flip-book with our unique Google optimized e-Paper software.

iiccneRosaHiiS{ H Aaxce, K co)KaneHFIIO, psi nOCneAHHX, me He<br />

yIIHTbIBanCM 3C1(1JeKT BpeMeHHOI'O OTCTaBaHHSI, MOryT nerKO npNBeCTH<br />

K He061eKTHBHbIM pe3ynbTaTaM, H FIX He06XOnHMO TpaKTOBaTb C<br />

oCTOpoxcxoCTblo. ara npo6neMa cTana oc06exxo oCTpoH B<br />

nocneAHHe rOnbl, c Tex nop KaK TeH,geHLjHH nOTpe6neHHA BO MHOrnx<br />

c-rpaHax He pa3BHBaIOTCSI 605Iee B o,AHOM HanpaBneHHH.<br />

O,AHaxo B CnyLlae nocne,ACTBHIi Tx)Kenoro OnbSIHeHHSi 343IPeKT<br />

speMexxoro OTCTaBaHHSI 06bIiiHO He npencTaBnMeT cepbe3HOli<br />

np06neMbl. B 3TOli cHTyaL[Hid, BepoxTHO, HaH6onee cepbe3Hylo<br />

np06neMy npe,AcTaBnSIeT TO, KaK npH aHanH3e yLIeCTb B3aHMHOe<br />

BnHSIHHe anx0ron5l H ApyrHX CliaKTOpos.<br />

4.2 PACIIPE,gE11EHV1E IIOTPE611EHV1S1 A11KO1-01151<br />

4.2.1 VlcTOpH4ecKaR cnpaeKa<br />

KaK MbI y)Ke o6cy)IC,AanH, B03Ae1iCTBHe H3MeHeHHii B<br />

nOTpe6neHHH Ha nyLHy HaCeneHHA 6yneT 06bILIHO 3aBHCeTb OT TOrO,<br />

KaK 3TH H3MeHeHHA pacnpenenAK)TCA CpenH HaceneHFiA.<br />

He06X0,AHMOCTb yi-IHTbIBaTb 3TOT 4JaKT 6b1na BnepBble nOJIHOCTbiO<br />

OCO3HaHa C1)paHL(y3CKHM AeMOrpa(tOM Sully Ledermann.<br />

HaL1HHaA c 1946 roAa Ledermann ony6nHKOBan cepHlo<br />

HCCneAOBaHHFi no BeKOBbIM TeHneHIjHMM H perHOHanbHbIM<br />

H3MeHeHHAM ypOBHA CMepTHOCTH BO CDpaHL[HH H ApyrHX CTpaHaX. OH<br />

o6HapyxcHn 3HaLIHTenbHble CoBna,AexHA B H3MeHeHHMX B<br />

npocTpaxCTSe H BpeMeHH Me)Kay noTpe6neHHeM anKOrOnA Ha nyuly<br />

HaceneHHM H ypOBHeM CMepTHOCTH, H 3T0 nOCny)KHJIO TOnHKOM K<br />

CO3AâHHiO ero H3BeCTHOIi TeopHH O pacnpeneneHHH noTpe6neHHM<br />

anKOrOnM. BKpaTue, 3Ta TeOpHA yrBepxcnaeT, LITO AOn)KeH<br />

Cyn.[eCTBOBaTb OHpeneneHHblii HOpAAOK B TOM, KaK nbK)Ii[He<br />

pacnpenenMlOTCA no HlKâne noTpe6neHHA anKOrOnM, H LITO 3T0<br />

pacnpeneneHHe MOxCeT 6bITb npH6nH3HTenbHO BblpaxCeHO TaK<br />

Ha3blsaeMOli nor-HOpManbHOFi BepOATHOCTHOIi KpHBOH. bOnee TOro,<br />

Ledermann npennonoxcHn, LITO cyLnecTByeT HOCTOAHHaA B3aHMOCB513b<br />

MexCny cpenHHM ypoBHeM nOTpe6neHHA H OTKnoxeHHMMH B<br />

pacnpeneneHHH. ara B3aI3MOCB5I3b o3HaLIaeT, LITO H3MexeHldA<br />

cpenxero yposHA noTpe6neHHA 6yAyT 06bILIH0 conposoxcAaTbcM<br />

116

Hooray! Your file is uploaded and ready to be published.

Saved successfully!

Ooh no, something went wrong!