IHgIIOJOHIj - World Health Organization Regional Office for Europe

ypOBeHb cMepTHOCTI3 B TpH pa3a BbIlue - 26,5%. B TpeTbeli rpynne,
KOTOpaSI CXOAHa CO BTOpOii, KOnHTIeCTBO ilpe3MepHO nblOnjHX nloAeri
enjë BbIIIIe, H ypOBeHb CMepTHOCTH TaK)Ke BbIIne - 36,3%.
CneAOBâTenbHO, Aa>Ke He60nbmOe H3MeHeHHe B COCTaBe HaCeneHHSt
no yposHlo noTpe6neHHSI anxoronSl OKa)ICeT 3HaTIHTenbHblli 3C1)ClIeKT
Ha ypOBeHb CMepTHOCTH, KorAa CtiyHKIjHSI pHCKa 3KCnOHeHTHa.
BbIBOA, KOTOpOÎi BbITeKaeT H3 3TOTO rHIIOTeTHLIHOrO, HO
CBSI3aHHOTO C npaKTHKOIi aHanH3a, COCTOHT B TOM, TITO COCTaB
nb1011ter0 HaCeneHHSI MO)KeT 3HaTIHTenbHO BnHSITb Ha ypOBeHb
npO6neM HaceneHHSI. Cne,aOBaTenbxO, B HHTepecax o6nteCTBeHHoro
3ApaBOOxpaneHHSt Heo6xoAHMo o6naAaTb HHcPopMaqHeli o pacnpeAeneHHH
HaceneHliSi no yposHSIM noTpe6neHHSI. 3C19cteKT, KOTOpbIIi
6yAeT OKa3bIBaTb H3MeHeHHe B ypOBHe noTpe6neHHSi Ha Aymy
HaCeneHH51 Ha ypOBeHb npo6neM, 6yAeT 3aBHCeTb OT TOTO, KaK
H3MeHeHHe B nOTpe6neHHH paCnpeAenAeTCSi CpeAH HaCeneHHSI, H 3TO
OCO6eHH0 BepHO jLrIA 3a6oneBaHHN C CHnbHO 3aKpyrneHHOii KpHBOii
Cl)yHKL(HH pHCKa. MbI 06paTHMCSI K 3TOMy BOnpOCy 60nee AeTanbHO
HHxce, B pa3Aene 4.2.
4.1.3 cDyHKItHH pHCKa, Bblpa)K@HHbI@ rpaCtHKOM
J-06pa3HON CpOpMbI
KaK yKâ3blBânOCb B rnaBe 3, B HCCKOnbKHX HCCneAOBaHHSIX 6bIJIo
CAenaHO npeAnOnO)KeHHe, TITO Ha HHAHBHAyaJIbHOM ypOBHe aJIKOTOnb
MO)KeT OKâ3bIBaTb nOJIO)ICHTenbHblii 3CpitleKT npH HH3KOM ypoBHe
nOTpe6neHHSi, B TO BpeMSi KaK pHCK BpeAHbIX nOCneACTBHri
yBenHTIHBaeTCSI npH BbICOKOM ypoBHe nOTpe6neHHSI. CneAOBaTenbHO,
AnSI OnpeAeneHHbIX 3a60neBaHHii KpHBaH CItyHK14HH pHCKa MO)KeT
HMeTb J-o6pa3l-Iylo CtlOpMy, HanpHMep, AnSI KOpOHapHON 60ne3HH
CepAua. cDyHKLjHSi pHCKa J-06pa3HoFi Cl3OpMbI npeAnOnaraeT HanHTIHe
Anti OTAenbHOii nHTIHOCTH OnpeAeneHHOTO "oIITHManbHorO" ypOBHSI
nOTpe6neHHH, npH KOTOpOM ypOBeHb pHCKa MHHHManeH.
CneAyiOLL[Hii BbITeKaIOIi[HIi OTCIOAa HHTepeCHblii BOnpOC: KaKOTO
poAa B3aHMOCBSI3b MbI nOnyTIHM Ha 06o6uteHHOM ypoBHe, ecnH
B3aHMOCBA3b Ha HHAHBHAyanbHOM ypoBHe HMeeT J-06pa3Hyio
CitOpMy? LITO Cny'-IHTCSI C ypOBHeM CMepTHOCTH HaceneHHSI B
pe3ynbTaTe onpeAeneHHOrO 3a60neBaHHSI, eCnH nOBbICHTCSI
COBOKynHbliï ypOBeHb noTpe6neHHx? 3T0, KOHeTIHO, B 6onbmoli
CTeneHH 6yAeT 3aBHCeTb OT paCnpeAeneHHSi noTpe6neHHSI anKOrOnsl
CpeAH HaCeneHHSI.
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