Solar Grade-Silicon, Ingot, Wafer Technology and Market Trend

Solar Grade-Silicon, Ingot, Wafer Technology and Market Trend (2008~2012)
6.2. p-Si supply & Demand forecast for solar cell
The solar cell market recorded more than 40% average annual growth rate
from 2007 to 3Q 2008 due to support policies by each nation’s government
and the importance of PV business with global recognition in environmental
issues. Such high growth rate resulted in shortages of poly-silicon, a raw
material for crystalline solar cell. The spot price of short-term contract even
went up to US$400/Kg. Numerous companies announce their plans to join the
poly-silicon business which shows high earning rate.
The figure below is data collected by analyzing 80 new entrants including the 7
major global p-Si makers. It forecasts solar grade-silicon supply by three
scenarios. The p-Si supply is projected to exceed demand starting in 2009 and
record the highest supply surplus in 2010.
However, the large-scale investments by the new entrants are likely to be
delayed due to the global economic slump from 2009 to the first half of 2010. If
the conventional p-Si maker’s production cuts are added here, it may create a
reversed situation of the raw material shortages starting in 2011, after the
supply surplus for a short period of time (2009 to 2010), like Scenario 2.
Hence, the advanced conventional makers focus in product differentiation by
enhancing quality and purity. They propel strategies to maintain a stable p-Si
price.
Figure6.2. Solar Cell p-Si Demand/Supply Forecast
MW
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
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SAMPLE
Cell Demand (MW)
Supply (MW, S1)
Supply (MW, S2: Base)
Supply (MW, S3)
2007 2008 2009F 2010F 2011F 2012F
Jan’09