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Ijaz Nabi<br />
geopolitical lens, and not as potentially vibrant trading partners. This<br />
outlook has to change. <strong>Pakistan</strong> in particular needs to recognize that<br />
<strong>India</strong> is no longer confined to a low “Hindu rate of growth,” but is a<br />
rapidly modernizing economy that is increasingly integrated with the<br />
world economy in a way that could have strong spillover benefits for<br />
<strong>Pakistan</strong>. <strong>India</strong>’s recent GDP growth rate averaging 8 percent is more<br />
than twice <strong>Pakistan</strong>’s (see Figure 3). And because <strong>India</strong>’s population<br />
growth is lower, per capita income in <strong>India</strong> is growing even faster (see<br />
Figure 4). This divergent economic performance has several implications<br />
(see Table 1). One is that in the not-too-distant future, living standards,<br />
including the quality of infrastructure and public services, will<br />
be better in <strong>India</strong>. Significantly, <strong>India</strong> will also have a larger lobbying<br />
presence in international forums, which will have consequences regarding<br />
<strong>Pakistan</strong>’s ability to maintain parity across a broad range of contested<br />
and competing issues. Further, <strong>India</strong>’s capacity to modernize its security<br />
establishment will be far greater than <strong>Pakistan</strong>’s.<br />
figure 3: GdP Growth in india and <strong>Pakistan</strong><br />
12<br />
10<br />
8<br />
6<br />
4<br />
2<br />
0<br />
GDP growth rate (%)<br />
1980<br />
1981<br />
1982<br />
1983<br />
1984<br />
1985<br />
1986<br />
1987<br />
1988<br />
1989<br />
1990<br />
1991<br />
1992<br />
1993<br />
1994<br />
1995<br />
1996<br />
1997<br />
1998<br />
1999<br />
2000<br />
2001<br />
2002<br />
2003<br />
2004<br />
2005<br />
2006<br />
2007<br />
2008<br />
2009<br />
<strong>India</strong> <strong>Pakistan</strong><br />
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators, 2011.<br />
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