Programm Photovoltaik Ausgabe 2008 ... - Bundesamt für Energie BFE
Programm Photovoltaik Ausgabe 2008 ... - Bundesamt für Energie BFE Programm Photovoltaik Ausgabe 2008 ... - Bundesamt für Energie BFE
Eidgenössisches Departement für Umwelt, Verkehr, Energie und Kommunikation UVEK Bundesamt für Energie BFE IEA SHC TASK 36: SOLAR RESOURCE KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT GLOBAL RADIATION FORECAST AND TURBIDITY CLIMATOLOGY Annual Report 2007 Author and Co-Authors Jan Remund, Mario Rindlisbacher and Daniela Domeisen Institution / Company Meteotest Address Fabrikstrasse 14, 3012 Bern Telephone, E-mail, Homepage +41 (0)31 307 26 26, remund@meteotest.ch, www.meteotest.ch Project- / Contract Number 101498 / 151784 Duration of the Project (from – to) July 2005 – June 2010 Date 10.12.2007 ABSTRACT In the framework of IEA Solar Heating and Cooling (SHC) Task 36 Meteotest investigates mainly the possibilities and quality of global radiation forecast. In the second year the validation of the global radiation forecast of Meteotest’s operational MM5 model (30 km resolution) was continued. The root mean squared error for a 36 hour forecast was about 50%. Next year a more detailed validation and the introduction of a high resolution WRF (2 – 10 km resolution) model as well as PV production forecast are planned. Additionally a new turbidity climatology has been built. It is already included in Meteonorm Version 6 and will be used also in other radiation models. Seite 271 von 288
Introduction In the framework of IEA Solar Heating and Cooling (SHC) Task 36 “Solar Resource Knowledge Management” Meteotest investigates mainly the possibilities and quality of global radiation forecast. The Task 36 is divided into 3 main subtasks: a) Standard qualification for solar resource products (includes benchmarking of different radiation estimation models based on satellite measurements). b) Common structure for archiving and accessing solar resource products (includes prototype of online tool for accessing data). c) Improved techniques for solar resource characterization and forecast; improve satellite retrieval methods for solar radiation products; conduct climatological analysis of solar resources. The aim in the radiation forecast subtask is to define the quality of the existing models and to enhance the quality. A further aim is also to check the quality of forecasted PV production data. Main partners in this subtask are University Oldenburg and New York State University at Albany. Additionally Meteotest did some work within part c), where a new turbidity climatology was made. Work done and first results Radiation forecast Meteotest made a short analysis of the operational global radiation forecast of the MM5 model, which runs with input data of GFS (global model of US National Weather Service) and in spatial resolution of 30 km. The global radiation was used in form of direct model output. We tested the hourly values at 4 different stations in Switzerland (Basel, Geneva, Lugano and Schaffhausen). The validation was made with measured values from the network of MeteoSwiss. The validation forecast ranged from 9 – 63 hours (9, 12 15 h for day 1 - 3) The test period was June 16th 2006 – October 16th 2006 (1.33 years) The validation showed the following results: 1. Mean biases are small 2. relative root mean squared errors are (prmse): All seasons, day 1, all hours: 53%; summer, day 1, 12 UTC: 38% 3. The quality (prmse) is: dependent on time of day (factor 1.3); strongly dependent on season (factor 2) The ongoing validations of the subtask members showed partly different results. The groups working with MM5 models got similar results in Spain. New York State University at Albany (Richard Perez) used digital weather forecast of cloud cover of US National Weather Service. Those results showed a Prediction Root Mean Squared Error of 20-40% depending on the region (Desert Rock, Boulder, Goodwin Creek). University of Oldenburg used ECMWF (European weather model). Those results showed a Prediction Root Mean Squared Error of 30-37% depending on the region (Germany and Spain). This could be partly due to a better radiation model within the ECMWF model. As quality is very much depending on site and time of the year, the team members will conduct next year validations for the same regions and periods for all models. Seite 272 von 288 Solar Resource Management, J. Remund, Meteotest 2/3
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Eidgenössisches Departement <strong>für</strong><br />
Umwelt, Verkehr, <strong>Energie</strong> und Kommunikation UVEK<br />
<strong>Bundesamt</strong> <strong>für</strong> <strong>Energie</strong> <strong>BFE</strong><br />
IEA SHC TASK 36: SOLAR RESOURCE<br />
KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT<br />
GLOBAL RADIATION FORECAST AND<br />
TURBIDITY CLIMATOLOGY<br />
Annual Report 2007<br />
Author and Co-Authors Jan Remund, Mario Rindlisbacher and Daniela Domeisen<br />
Institution / Company Meteotest<br />
Address Fabrikstrasse 14, 3012 Bern<br />
Telephone, E-mail, Homepage +41 (0)31 307 26 26, remund@meteotest.ch, www.meteotest.ch<br />
Project- / Contract Number 101498 / 151784<br />
Duration of the Project (from – to) July 2005 – June 2010<br />
Date 10.12.2007<br />
ABSTRACT<br />
In the framework of IEA Solar Heating and Cooling (SHC) Task 36 Meteotest investigates mainly the<br />
possibilities and quality of global radiation forecast. In the second year the validation of the global<br />
radiation forecast of Meteotest’s operational MM5 model (30 km resolution) was continued. The root<br />
mean squared error for a 36 hour forecast was about 50%. Next year a more detailed validation and<br />
the introduction of a high resolution WRF (2 – 10 km resolution) model as well as PV production forecast<br />
are planned. Additionally a new turbidity climatology has been built. It is already included in Meteonorm<br />
Version 6 and will be used also in other radiation models.<br />
Seite 271 von 288
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