Kshipra Sub Basin - Asian Development Bank

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Support to the National Water Mission NAPCC Appendix 3 Kshipra Sub Basin Table 35: PRECIS Simulated seasonal temperatures, A1B scenario Time Horizon Mean daily maximum temperatures ( o C) JF MAM JJAS OND Annual Baseline (1970s) 27.0 39.3 30.2 28.9 31.4 mid-century 29.3 41.4 31.7 30.8 33.3 end-century 30.9 43.3 33.6 32.7 35.1 Mean daily minimum temperatures ( o C) Baseline (1970s) 10.3 22.5 22.0 12.4 16.8 mid-century 17.3 28.2 23.7 15.2 21.1 end-century 20.1 30.4 26.0 19.1 23.9 Table 36 Comparison of projected changes in temperatures, A1B, A2 and B2 scenarios, 2080s Mean daily maximum temperatures Scenario JF MAM JJAS OND Annual A1B 3.9 4.0 3.4 3.8 3.7 A2 4.4 3.8 3.4 5.4 4.2 B2 2.7 2.3 2.7 4.6 3.0 Mean daily minimum temperatures A1B 9.8 7.9 4 6.7 7.1 A2 5.8 4.9 3.2 5.3 4.8 B2 4.1 3.4 2.5 5.8 3.9 167. Both maximum and minimum temperatures are projected to rise significantly under the PRECIS A1B scenario. Mean daily maximums are project to increase by about 2 o C by the 2050s and by almost 4 o C by the 2080s. Increases in the monsoon season are lower than in the dry seasons. The A2 scenario produces similar changes in Mean daily maximum temperatures as the A1B scenario, but the increases under the B2 scenario are much lower. Mean daily minimum temperatures are projected to increase by as much as 10 o C in the dry season by the 2080s, and by a more modest 4 o C in the monsoon season under the A1B scenario. The A1B scenario produces much larger increases in mean daily minimum temperatures than either the A2 or B2 scenarios, particularly in the dry season months. Temperature changes are shown in Figure 44 for the A1B scenario. The pattern of projected changes in similar under the A2 and B2 scenarios. 75
Support to the National Water Mission NAPCC Appendix 3 Kshipra Sub Basin 2. Rainfall Figure 44: Change in Average Daily Temperatures 168. The Kshipra river basin receives most of its rain during the monsoon season, which starts in late June. The mean seasonal precipitation amounts simulated by PRECIS are as shown in Table 37 below. Data are presented for four seasonal periods: JF - January, February; MAM - March, April, May; JJAS - June, July, August, September; OND - October, November, December. Table 38 presents a comparison of changes to end-century under the A1B, A2 and B2 scenarios. Figure 45 and Figure 46 show the pattern of changes in annual and seasonal rainfall under the A1B scenario. The pattern of change is very similar under the A2 and B2 scenarios. 169. Under the A1B scenario, rainfall is projected to increase. Mean annual rainfall increases by about 140mm by mid-century, and by about 180mm by end-century under the A1B scenario. The A2 scenario produces a similar change in precipitation to the A1B scenario, but with the B2 scenario, the 76
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Kshipra Sub Basin - Asian Development Bank

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