Kshipra Sub Basin - Asian Development Bank

Support to the National Water Mission NAPCC
Appendix 3 Kshipra Sub Basin
Table 35: PRECIS Simulated seasonal temperatures, A1B scenario
Time Horizon Mean daily maximum temperatures ( o C)
JF MAM JJAS OND Annual
Baseline (1970s) 27.0 39.3 30.2 28.9 31.4
mid-century 29.3 41.4 31.7 30.8 33.3
end-century 30.9 43.3 33.6 32.7 35.1
Mean daily minimum temperatures ( o C)
Baseline (1970s) 10.3 22.5 22.0 12.4 16.8
mid-century 17.3 28.2 23.7 15.2 21.1
end-century 20.1 30.4 26.0 19.1 23.9
Table 36 Comparison of projected changes in temperatures, A1B, A2 and B2 scenarios, 2080s
Mean daily maximum temperatures
Scenario JF MAM JJAS OND Annual
A1B 3.9 4.0 3.4 3.8 3.7
A2 4.4 3.8 3.4 5.4 4.2
B2 2.7 2.3 2.7 4.6 3.0
Mean daily minimum temperatures
A1B 9.8 7.9 4 6.7 7.1
A2 5.8 4.9 3.2 5.3 4.8
B2 4.1 3.4 2.5 5.8 3.9
167. Both maximum and minimum temperatures are projected to rise significantly under the PRECIS
A1B scenario. Mean daily maximums are project to increase by about 2 o C by the 2050s and by
almost 4 o C by the 2080s. Increases in the monsoon season are lower than in the dry seasons. The
A2 scenario produces similar changes in Mean daily maximum temperatures as the A1B scenario, but
the increases under the B2 scenario are much lower. Mean daily minimum temperatures are
projected to increase by as much as 10 o C in the dry season by the 2080s, and by a more modest 4 o C
in the monsoon season under the A1B scenario. The A1B scenario produces much larger increases
in mean daily minimum temperatures than either the A2 or B2 scenarios, particularly in the dry season
months. Temperature changes are shown in Figure 44 for the A1B scenario. The pattern of projected
changes in similar under the A2 and B2 scenarios.
75