Kshipra Sub Basin - Asian Development Bank

Support to the National Water Mission NAPCC
Appendix 3 Kshipra Sub Basin
A. Introduction
VIII. CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS
156. The Kshipra river rises in the Vindhya Range north of Dhar, from a hill called Kokri Tekdi
(situated at a distance of 11km from Ujjain). The Kshipra river is 195km long. Its main tributaries are
the Khan and Gambhir rivers. The Kshipra flows south across the Malwa Plateau to join the Chambal
river.
157. The Chambal river is a tributary of the Yamuna river in central India, and forms part of the
greater Gangetic drainage system. The river flows north-northeast through Madhya Pradesh, passing
through Rajasthan, then forming the boundary between Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh before
turning southeast to join the Yamuna in Uttar Pradesh state. The Chambal river is 960km long and its
drainage basin covers an area of 143,219 km².
158. The summer months (April–June) are harsh with temperatures reaching up to 45°C. In addition,
hot winds (called lou) may blow in the afternoons, worsening the heat and increasing
evapotranspiration. The winter months (November–February) are pleasant and cool with daytime
temperatures typically 20°C, though they may drop below zero at night. The monsoon typically arrives
in late June and the months of June through September receive moderate to heavy rainfall. There are
periods of rainfall followed by long periods of bright sunshine and high humidity. The month of October
generally is very warm and with high humidity.
159. The Kshipra sub-basin is relatively small and hence the regional climate model has only a small
number of grid points over the area. Gridded data for precipitation and temperature exist for the
region, at resolutions down to 25km. In this study, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) dataset
has been utilised for observed precipitation.
B. Summary of Observed Changes to the Present Time
1. Community Perceptions
160. The communities have observed significant change in the temperature in the last 10 years. The
summer temperature has risen significantly and the winter temperature has fallen significantly in all the
districts. The reports of rainfall change are mixed; respondents from Indore have told that rainfall has
not changed significantly in the last few years, though people in the other districts are of the view that
there is significantly less rainfall. During 2010 frost caused huge damage on agricultural production in
all the districts, though the damage is seen to be less in Indore.
161. The average response from the communities has been that some delays in the starting day of
the monsoon has been observed, with delays reported of around 10-15 days. Stakeholders mostly
believe that climate change will have perceptible impact on their livelihood through its effect on
agricultural production, human health and livestock population.
C. Relevant Climate Change Studies and Findings
162. Researches into the wider Ganges basin are very numerous, but there are only a few key
research outputs for Kshipra. Saini, of Geological Survey of India, published in 2008 on ―Climate
Change and its Future Impact on the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP)‖, which mentions some of the issues
investigated in this project, namely groundwater depletion.
163. Dasgupta et al performed a review in 2010 ―Indian Agricultural Scenario and Food Security
Concerns in the Context of Climate Change: a Review‖, concluding that the food insecurity situation
was ―moderate‖. They also note ―The available studies on supply and demand for foodgrain and other
food products do not account for the impact of climate change on the production and consumption of
food.‖ .
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