IMS Company Profiles - Report Buyer

More documents

Recommendations

Info

IMS COM PANY PRO FILES NOVARTIS An a lyst Com ment Fol low ing the re lease of Q4 re sults, Cowen & Co an a lysts (Jan u ary 2009) noted that the re sults were “dis - ap point ing” but that the “out look re mains ro bust” They high lighted that Novartis re ported sig nif i cantly lower-than-ex pected EPS and lack lus ter rev e nues. They noted that the Phar ma ceu ti cal and Vac cines busi nesses dem on strated good mo men tum, in Q4, but that Sandoz and Con sumer “con tinue to face head winds.” The con cluded that they “con tinue to be lieve that NVS should de liver top-tier growth through 2015.” The analysts rated Novartis “Outperform.” Mor gan Stan ley an a lysts (Jan u ary 2009) once again rated Novartis “Over weight” and noted that Q4 rev - e nues were 2% be low their ex pec ta tions and 4% be low the con sen sus. They put this down to cur rency ef fects and the nu mer ous “one-time” items which in creased op er at ing ex penses. Con sumer Healthcare how ever, was con sid er ably lower than they had an tic i pated, and the an a lysts sug gest that this shows that the busi ness is more cy cli cal than they had previously anticipated. In June 2008, Mor gan Stan ley an a lysts re it er ated their ‘Over weight’ rat ing on Novartis fol low ing its vac - cines day, which they said, “in di cates fore casts are set to dou ble. The Novartis vac cines day con firmed that the phar ma ceu ti cal in dus try is on the cusp of con sid er able tech no log i cal break through, with three new po ten tial vac cines set to be launched ahead of 2010/11. As we high lighted in April 2008, we con tinue to be lieve that the meningococcal vac cine mar ket is set to grow from circa $1 bil lion cur rently to circa $5 bil lion by 2015 (e), with Novartis set to be the dom i nant player. With up side to both rev e nues and mar gin es ti mates, con sen sus vac cines fore casts may need to dou ble un der our blue sky sce nario, thereby adding circa 5-15% to longer term EPS forecasts.” The an a lysts state that they like “Novartis’ di ver si fied healthcare busi ness model, with pharmaceuticals, vac cines, generics and con sumer health. In 2013, we es ti mate that only 45% of Novartis’ rev e nue will come from small mol e cule pharmaceuticals.” They also added that they con sider that in ves tors have failed to ap pre ci ate the sig nif i cance of Novartis’ vac cines port fo lio; they think this could add more than 15% to con sen sus EPS fore casts. And they think that al though the Alcon trans ac tion came at a high price, Novartis will now have a smooth earn ings pro gres sion from 2010 to 2015, un like many of its peers. They see key value driv ers as Glivec and Tasigna in on col ogy/CML, Tekturna (which should have rev e nues of $830 mil lion in 2014, when Diovan faces ge neric com pe ti tion), non-pharma as sets, such as vac cines, generics and con sumer health) and, in par tic u lar, the vac cines busi ness (which should have rev e nues of $4 bil lion in 2013, com pared to $1.5 billion in 2007, driven by Menveo and MenB). In re ports through 2008, Mor gan Stan ley an a lysts have noted the loss in sales fol low ing 2007’s launch of ge neric ver sions of Lotrel, Trileptal, Lamisil and Famvir, and the with drawal of Zelnorm. They es ti mate that Novartis has lost around $3.2 bil lion in branded phar ma ceu ti cal rev e nues and 10% of its 2006 group rev e nues. They es ti mate this ac counts to $2.8 bil lion of gross profit. How ever, they high lighted that in 2011, Novartis will en ter one of the tough est pe ri ods for any of the pharma ma jors. Be tween 2011-2015, they ex pect ge neric com pe ti tion to emerge for prod ucts that will gen er ate rev e nues of $15.6 bil lion in 2010, rep re sent ing 55% of 2010 phar ma ceu ti cal rev e nues and 35% of 2010 group rev e nues. Ap prox i - mately 40% of the rev e nues ex posed to pat ent ex pi ra tions are within the US, where ge neric en trants typ i cally capture 80-90% market share during the first three months. © 2009 IMS Health In cor po rated or its af fil i ates Page 20
IMS COM PANY PRO FILES NOVARTIS Prod ucts Fac ing Pat ent Ex piry Product Sales 2008 Expiry USA Certican (everolimus) Comtan (entacapone) Diovan (valsartan)* Elidel (pimecrolimus) Enablex/ Emselex (darifenacin)** Exelon (rivastigmine) Famvir (famciclovir) Femara (letrozole) Product Portfolio Expiry Japan Expiry Europe Analyst Sales Forecast 2012 N/A Sep 2014 Sep 2013 Patents to Sep 2013, SPCs to Jul 2018 $502m (combined sales of Comtan and Stalevo) $5,740m (inc. Co-Diovan) Oct 2013 Nov 2007 (extended) (extension applied for) Mar 2012 Sep 2013 (extended) Patents to Nov 2007, mainly SPCs to Nov2012 (Portugal Mar 2013) Patents Feb 2011 but mainly SPCs to May 2011 (Switzerland Aug 2011) $157m (E) Dec 2016 Nov 2010 Patents to Nov 2010, (extended) SPCs to Nov 2015 $210m (E) Mar 2015 Mar 2010 Patents to Mar 2010, (extended) SPCs to Mar 2015 or filed for $815m Feb 2014 Mar 2008 Patents Mar 2008 but mostly SPCs to Aug 2012 (Portugal to Apr 2013) $236m (2007 sales) N/A $640m $3,933-4,141m $124m $267-313m $749-900m Sep 2010 Sep 2005 Mainly SPCs to Dec 2008 (Sweden Sep 2009; Switzerland Sep 2010) $86m $1,129m June 2011 Mar 2012 (extended) (extended) Patents Mar 2007 but mainly SPCs to Jul 2011 (Switzerland Feb 2012) © 2009 IMS Health In cor po rated or its af fil i ates Page 21 $774-898m
Page 1 and 2: IMS Company Profiles Novartis - Mar
Page 3 and 4: IMS COM PANY PRO FILES NOVARTIS IMS
Page 5 and 6: IMS COM PANY PRO FILES NOVARTIS Cor
Page 7 and 8: IMS COM PANY PRO FILES NOVARTIS In
Page 9 and 10: IMS COM PANY PRO FILES NOVARTIS it
Page 11 and 12: IMS COM PANY PRO FILES NOVARTIS tio
Page 13 and 14: IMS COM PANY PRO FILES NOVARTIS wit
Page 15 and 16: IMS COM PANY PRO FILES NOVARTIS EVE
Page 17 and 18: IMS COM PANY PRO FILES NOVARTIS Ea
Page 19: IMS COM PANY PRO FILES NOVARTIS Sa
Page 23 and 24: IMS COM PANY PRO FILES NOVARTIS Sal
Page 25 and 26: IMS COM PANY PRO FILES NOVARTIS mor
Page 27 and 28: IMS COM PANY PRO FILES NOVARTIS Com
Page 29 and 30: IMS COM PANY PRO FILES NOVARTIS EXT
Page 33 and 34: IMS COM PANY PRO FILES NOVARTIS Ac
Page 35 and 36: IMS COM PANY PRO FILES NOVARTIS SIM
Page 39 and 40: IMS COM PANY PRO FILES NOVARTIS abo
Page 45 and 46: IMS COM PANY PRO FILES NOVARTIS Req
Page 47 and 48: IMS COM PANY PRO FILES NOVARTIS sio
Page 49 and 50: IMS COM PANY PRO FILES NOVARTIS has
Page 53 and 54: IMS COM PANY PRO FILES NOVARTIS Pat
Page 55 and 56: IMS COM PANY PRO FILES NOVARTIS Ho
Page 57 and 58: IMS COM PANY PRO FILES NOVARTIS R&D
Page 59 and 60: IMS COM PANY PRO FILES NOVARTIS ing
Page 61 and 62: IMS COM PANY PRO FILES NOVARTIS be
Page 63 and 64: IMS COM PANY PRO FILES NOVARTIS Gen
Page 65 and 66: IMS COM PANY PRO FILES NOVARTIS Nov
Page 71 and 72:
IMS COM PANY PRO FILES NOVARTIS Cro
Page 73 and 74:
IMS COM PANY PRO FILES NOVARTIS cin
Page 75 and 76:
IMS COM PANY PRO FILES NOVARTIS MAb
Page 77 and 78:
IMS COM PANY PRO FILES NOVARTIS Ali
Page 79 and 80:
IMS COM PANY PRO FILES NOVARTIS Cli
Page 81 and 82:
IMS COM PANY PRO FILES NOVARTIS VAD
Page 83 and 84:
IMS COM PANY PRO FILES NOVARTIS gra
Page 85 and 86:
IMS COM PANY PRO FILES NOVARTIS Sal
Page 87 and 88:
IMS COM PANY PRO FILES NOVARTIS Li
Page 89 and 90:
IMS COM PANY PRO FILES NOVARTIS SPP
Page 91 and 92:
IMS COM PANY PRO FILES NOVARTIS In
Page 93 and 94:
IMS COM PANY PRO FILES NOVARTIS cal
Page 95 and 96:
IMS COM PANY PRO FILES NOVARTIS The
Page 97 and 98:
Page 99 and 100:
IMS COM PANY PRO FILES NOVARTIS The
Page 101 and 102:
IMS COM PANY PRO FILES NOVARTIS ALB
Page 103 and 104:
IMS COM PANY PRO FILES NOVARTIS Li
Page 105 and 106:
IMS COM PANY PRO FILES NOVARTIS Cli
Page 107 and 108:
IMS COM PANY PRO FILES NOVARTIS Var
Page 109 and 110:
Page 111 and 112:
Page 113 and 114:
IMS COM PANY PRO FILES NOVARTIS COW
Page 115 and 116:
IMS COM PANY PRO FILES NOVARTIS Met
Page 117 and 118:
IMS COM PANY PRO FILES NOVARTIS Oth
Page 119 and 120:
IMS COM PANY PRO FILES NOVARTIS Pha
Page 121 and 122:
IMS COM PANY PRO FILES NOVARTIS Thi
Page 123 and 124:
IMS COM PANY PRO FILES NOVARTIS Emp
Page 125 and 126:
IMS COM PANY PRO FILES NOVARTIS Pro
Page 127 and 128:
Page 129 and 130:
Page 131 and 132:
IMS COM PANY PRO FILES NOVARTIS Com
Page 133 and 134:
Page 135 and 136:
Page 137 and 138:
Page 139 and 140:
IMS COM PANY PRO FILES NOVARTIS Nov
Page 141 and 142:
IMS COM PANY PRO FILES NOVARTIS San
Page 143 and 144:
IMS COM PANY PRO FILES NOVARTIS als
Page 145 and 146:
IMS COM PANY PRO FILES NOVARTIS Nov
Page 147 and 148:
IMS COM PANY PRO FILES NOVARTIS SUB
Page 149 and 150:
Page 151 and 152:
Page 153 and 154:
Page 155 and 156:
Page 157 and 158:
Page 159 and 160:
Page 161 and 162:
Page 163 and 164:
Page 165 and 166:
Page 167 and 168:
Page 169 and 170:
Page 171 and 172:
Page 173 and 174:
Page 175 and 176:
Page 177 and 178:
Page 179 and 180:
Page 181 and 182:
Page 183 and 184:
Page 185 and 186:
Page 187 and 188:
Page 189 and 190:
Page 191 and 192:
Page 193 and 194:
Page 195 and 196:
Page 197 and 198:
Page 199 and 200:
Page 201 and 202:
Page 203 and 204:
Page 205 and 206:
Page 207 and 208:
Page 209 and 210:
Page 211 and 212:
Page 213 and 214:
Page 215 and 216:
Page 217 and 218:
Page 219 and 220:
Page 221 and 222:
Page 223 and 224:
Page 225:
IMS COM PANY PRO FILES APPENDIX - C
show all

IMS Company Profiles - Report Buyer

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?