IMS Company Profiles - Report Buyer

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IMS COM PANY PRO FILES NOVARTIS for 2010, panobinostat (LBH 589), which is be ing stud ies in cu ta ne ous T-cell lym phoma and pros tate can cer with a fil ing planned for 2009, and midostaurin (PKC 412), a pro tein kinase in hib i tor, for acute myeloid leu ke mia, with a fil ing planned for 2011. Novartis has a broad range of com pounds in de vel op - ment in other ther a peu tic ar eas, such as neu rol ogy, trans plan ta tion, re spi ra tory dis eases, oph thal mol - ogy, and in fec tious dis eases, an area that has grown in im por tance for the com pany. Other re cent reg u la tory fil ings were the once daily long-act ing beta ag o nist indacaterol (QAB 149) in the USA and Eu - rope for the treat ment of COPD, and the hu man monoclonal an ti body to interleukin-1 beta, ACZ 885, for the treat ment of Cryopyrin-As so ci ated Pe ri odic Syn dromes (CAPS) in the USA and Eu rope. In 2009-10, Novartis should also launch two new meningitis vaccines (Menveo and MenB), which could be potential blockbusters, and the Japanese encephalitis virus vaccine, Ixiaro. Novartis has also been build ing its po si tion in biologics, con sis tently grow ing its ca pa bil i ties and ex per tise in the R&D of all bi o logic ther a pies, which now rep re sent 25% of the pre clin i cal re search port fo lio. In 2007, Novartis formed the Novartis Biologics Unit, to unify its core ca pa bil i ties in biologics within one group. In De cem ber 2008, Novartis com pleted the ac qui si tion of the pul mo nary drug de liv ery busi ness of Nektar (USA). It ac quired spe cific pul mo nary de liv ery as sets, tech nol ogy, and in tel lec tual prop erty from Nektar for $115 mil lion in cash. Cer tain dry pow der and liq uid pul mo nary for mu la tion and man u fac tur ing as sets (in clud ing cap i tal equip ment and man u fac tur ing cap i tal lease ob li ga tions) have also been ac quired by Novartis. Novartis will also take on 140 Nektar per son nel, as well as cer tain in tel lec tual prop erty and man u fac tur ing meth ods. Man u fac tur ing and roy alty rights to tobramycin in haled pow der (In haled Tobi), which is in phase III trials, will be transferred to Novartis. Pat ent Is sues • Im por tant Prod ucts at Risk In 2007, sales of four Novartis phar ma ceu ti cal prod ucts, Lotrel, Lamisil, Trileptal and Famvir, were neg a - tively af fected by the start of ge neric com pe ti tion in the US, which in some cases was un ex pected. These four prod ucts had com bined 2006 an nual net sales of around $2.6 bil lion in the US. As a re sult of ge neric com pe ti tion, com bined net sales in 2007 for these prod ucts de clined 38% to $1.6 bil lion, and de clined sig nif i cantly fur ther in 2008 (Lotrel down 48% and Trileptal down 52%). The sharp and sig nif i cant re duc - tion in net sales of these prod ucts had an ad verse ef fect on the 2007 re sults of op er a tions of the Pharmaceuticals Di vi sion. Novartis re ported that the ef fect was still sig nif i cant in the first half of 2008 in the USA, but less so in the lat ter half with growth in the Pharmaceuticals area returning. Other Novartis pharma prod ucts that are the sub ject of on go ing US pat ent lit i ga tion in clude Femara (breast can cer), Lescol (high cho les terol), Focalin/Ritalin LA (ADHD) and Comtan/Stalevo (Par kin son’s dis ease). The loss of ex clu siv ity of some of these prod ucts could have a sig nif i cant ad verse ef fect on the re sults of op er a tions of the Pharmaceuticals Di vi sion. There was a de vel op ment in the Femara lit i ga tion in De cem ber 2008, how ever, when Novartis and Mylan en tered a set tle ment agree ment, un der which Mylan has a pat ent li cense that will en able it to mar ket letrozole tab lets 2.5 mg prior to the ex pi ra tion of the pat ent. Ad di tional terms of the agree ment re main un dis closed. In ad di tion, Neoral (trans plan ta tion) and Voltaren (pain), which are still among Novartis’ top ten prod ucts and had com bined net sales of $1.8 bil lion in 2008, have al ready en coun tered ge neric com pe ti tion in many markets, which may cause sales to decline significantly in the future. A num ber of other ma jor prod ucts, in clud ing Diovan, Gleevec/Glivec and Zometa, could also po ten tially face ge neric com pe ti tion in the com ing years in var i ous mar kets, par tic u larly the US and Eu rope, ei ther due to po ten tial pat ent chal lenges or the reg u lar ex pi ra tion of pat ents. Diovan, Glivec and Zometa had com bined net sales of $10.8 bil lion in 2008. Al though the loss of ex clu siv ity of any one of these three prod ucts could have a sig nif i cant ad verse ef fect on Novartis’ fi nan cial per for mance, it is the loss of Diovan © 2009 IMS Health In cor po rated or its af fil i ates Page 12

IMS COM PANY PRO FILES NOVARTIS with its $5.7 bil lion in an nual sales that has been high lighted by the com pany as fuel ing its strat egy over the next few years (see In tro duc tion). Diovan loses pat ent protection in Europe in 2011 and in the USA in 2012. Fu ture Pros pects • Re cord Year Ex pected for 2009 In Jan u ary 2009 Novartis noted that it ex pects an other year of re cord net sales and earn ings in 2009. The Group’s net sales are ex pected to grow at a mid sin gle-digit rate in 2009, while Pharmaceuticals net sales are ex pected to grow at a mid-to high sin gle-digit rate (in lo cal cur ren cies). Novartis faces a ma jor chal lenge over the next few years, mak ing up for the po ten tial loss of $5 bil lion in sales from its lead ing drug Diovan when its pat ent ex pires in the USA in 2012. The chal lenge might even come ear lier than that, as in 2010 the ri val drug Merck & Co’s Cozaar (losartan) loses pat ent pro tec tion and a ge neric ver sion of losartan will ap pear, giv ing in sur ers a cheaper op tion than Diovan. In ad di tion, sev eral other of Novartis’ lead ing drugs lose pat ent pro tec tion at ap prox i mately the same time, af fect ing about 21% of the com pany’s rev e nue. Novartis notes that it is tak ing a multi-fac eted ap proach, in clud ing de vel op ment of its pipe line of on col ogy drugs and ex pand ing in the high growth emerg ing mar kets. It is also, how ever, in vest ing a lot in de vel op ment of its new car dio vas cu lar drug Tekturna (aliskiren), which is be ing rolled out world wide, but is also in a large global clin i cal tri als pro gram and be ing de vel oped as a com po nent of com bi na tion prod ucts, with two of these close to the mar ket — Tekturna plus Diovan and Tekturna plus the di uretic HCTZ. De spite the in vest ment, Joe Jimenez, noted in De cem ber 2008 that even if the data on Tekturna is pos i tive, it is un likely to be pos si ble to build a Diovan-sized brand, but Novartis does be lieve the drug can achieve sales of more than $1 bil lion a year. In 2009 Novartis an tic i - pates seven ap prov als in 2009 (in clud ing ad di tional in di ca tions), seven sub mis sions for ap proval (in clud - ing ad di tional in di ca tions) and a con sid er able amount of phase III data. Novartis is hop ing for ap proval of the on col ogy prod uct Afinitor (everolimus), the men in gi tis vac cine Menveo, two com bi na tion prod ucts with Tekturna (with Diovan and with HCTZ) and Exforge plus HCTZ, as well as ap proval of Glivec for ad di - tional in di ca tions. No ta ble sub mis sions should be fingolimod (FTY 720), an oral treat ment of multiple sclerosis, MFF 258 (formoterol + mometasone) for asthma and COPD, Albuferon (albinterferon alfa-2b) for hepatitis C. Novartis’ re mains among an a lysts fa vor ites in the Pharmaceuticals sec tor, as it has im pressed with cost con trols and its strong prod uct pipe line. An drew Weiss of the Swiss Bank Vontobel noted that com pared to its peers Novartis has one of the full est pipe lines of new drugs in de vel op ment, but a ques tion hangs over whether the pipe line will ma te ri al ize in time be fore the pat ent ex pi ries be gin. Of in ter est to Mor gan Stan ley an a lysts is the com pany’s on col ogy pipe line, its new oral drug for MS, FTY 720, and the po ten tial for Zometa to show sig nif i cant growth with new indications. In vest ing heavily in the emerg ing mar kets is a strat egy that many of the com pany’s peers are also tak ing, how ever me dia com men ta tors have noted that growth is be gin ning to slow in these mar kets, af fected by the slow down in the de vel oped mar kets and these mar kets may not of fer the same kind of growth po ten - tial as they once did. In Jan u ary 2009, an a lysts at Cowen & Co and Mor gan Stan ley were dis ap pointed by Novartis’ Q4 re sults as Novartis had re ported sig nif i cantly lower-than-ex pected EPS and lack lus ter rev e nues, both sets of an - a lysts, how ever, were more pos i tive about the lon ger term, with those at Cowen & Co not ing that the “out look re mains ro bust” and that they “con tinue to be lieve that NVS should de liver top-tier growth through 2015.” Cowen & Co noted that the Phar ma ceu ti cal and Vac cines busi nesses dem on strated good mo men tum, but that Sandoz and Consumer “continue to face headwinds.” © 2009 IMS Health In cor po rated or its af fil i ates Page 13

<strong>IMS</strong> COM PANY PRO FILES NOVARTIS<br />

for 2010, panobinostat (LBH 589), which is be ing stud ies in cu ta ne ous T-cell lym phoma and pros tate<br />

can cer with a fil ing planned for 2009, and midostaurin (PKC 412), a pro tein kinase in hib i tor, for acute<br />

myeloid leu ke mia, with a fil ing planned for 2011. Novartis has a broad range of com pounds in de vel op -<br />

ment in other ther a peu tic ar eas, such as neu rol ogy, trans plan ta tion, re spi ra tory dis eases, oph thal mol -<br />

ogy, and in fec tious dis eases, an area that has grown in im por tance for the com pany. Other re cent<br />

reg u la tory fil ings were the once daily long-act ing beta ag o nist indacaterol (QAB 149) in the USA and Eu -<br />

rope for the treat ment of COPD, and the hu man monoclonal an ti body to interleukin-1 beta, ACZ 885, for<br />

the treat ment of Cryopyrin-As so ci ated Pe ri odic Syn dromes (CAPS) in the USA and Eu rope. In 2009-10,<br />

Novartis should also launch two new meningitis vaccines (Menveo and MenB), which could be potential<br />

blockbusters, and the Japanese encephalitis virus vaccine, Ixiaro.<br />

Novartis has also been build ing its po si tion in biologics, con sis tently grow ing its ca pa bil i ties and ex per tise<br />

in the R&D of all bi o logic ther a pies, which now rep re sent 25% of the pre clin i cal re search port fo lio. In<br />

2007, Novartis formed the Novartis Biologics Unit, to unify its core ca pa bil i ties in biologics within one<br />

group.<br />

In De cem ber 2008, Novartis com pleted the ac qui si tion of the pul mo nary drug de liv ery busi ness of Nektar<br />

(USA). It ac quired spe cific pul mo nary de liv ery as sets, tech nol ogy, and in tel lec tual prop erty from Nektar<br />

for $115 mil lion in cash. Cer tain dry pow der and liq uid pul mo nary for mu la tion and man u fac tur ing as sets<br />

(in clud ing cap i tal equip ment and man u fac tur ing cap i tal lease ob li ga tions) have also been ac quired by<br />

Novartis. Novartis will also take on 140 Nektar per son nel, as well as cer tain in tel lec tual prop erty and<br />

man u fac tur ing meth ods. Man u fac tur ing and roy alty rights to tobramycin in haled pow der (In haled Tobi),<br />

which is in phase III trials, will be transferred to Novartis.<br />

Pat ent Is sues<br />

• Im por tant Prod ucts at Risk<br />

In 2007, sales of four Novartis phar ma ceu ti cal prod ucts, Lotrel, Lamisil, Trileptal and Famvir, were neg a -<br />

tively af fected by the start of ge neric com pe ti tion in the US, which in some cases was un ex pected. These<br />

four prod ucts had com bined 2006 an nual net sales of around $2.6 bil lion in the US. As a re sult of ge neric<br />

com pe ti tion, com bined net sales in 2007 for these prod ucts de clined 38% to $1.6 bil lion, and de clined<br />

sig nif i cantly fur ther in 2008 (Lotrel down 48% and Trileptal down 52%). The sharp and sig nif i cant re duc -<br />

tion in net sales of these prod ucts had an ad verse ef fect on the 2007 re sults of op er a tions of the<br />

Pharmaceuticals Di vi sion. Novartis re ported that the ef fect was still sig nif i cant in the first half of 2008 in<br />

the USA, but less so in the lat ter half with growth in the Pharmaceuticals area returning.<br />

Other Novartis pharma prod ucts that are the sub ject of on go ing US pat ent lit i ga tion in clude Femara<br />

(breast can cer), Lescol (high cho les terol), Focalin/Ritalin LA (ADHD) and Comtan/Stalevo (Par kin son’s<br />

dis ease). The loss of ex clu siv ity of some of these prod ucts could have a sig nif i cant ad verse ef fect on the<br />

re sults of op er a tions of the Pharmaceuticals Di vi sion. There was a de vel op ment in the Femara lit i ga tion in<br />

De cem ber 2008, how ever, when Novartis and Mylan en tered a set tle ment agree ment, un der which<br />

Mylan has a pat ent li cense that will en able it to mar ket letrozole tab lets 2.5 mg prior to the ex pi ra tion of<br />

the pat ent. Ad di tional terms of the agree ment re main un dis closed. In ad di tion, Neoral (trans plan ta tion)<br />

and Voltaren (pain), which are still among Novartis’ top ten prod ucts and had com bined net sales of $1.8<br />

bil lion in 2008, have al ready en coun tered ge neric com pe ti tion in many markets, which may cause sales<br />

to decline significantly in the future.<br />

A num ber of other ma jor prod ucts, in clud ing Diovan, Gleevec/Glivec and Zometa, could also po ten tially<br />

face ge neric com pe ti tion in the com ing years in var i ous mar kets, par tic u larly the US and Eu rope, ei ther<br />

due to po ten tial pat ent chal lenges or the reg u lar ex pi ra tion of pat ents. Diovan, Glivec and Zometa had<br />

com bined net sales of $10.8 bil lion in 2008. Al though the loss of ex clu siv ity of any one of these three<br />

prod ucts could have a sig nif i cant ad verse ef fect on Novartis’ fi nan cial per for mance, it is the loss of Diovan<br />

© 2009 <strong>IMS</strong> Health In cor po rated or its af fil i ates Page 12

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