Downloadable - About University

Contents
Foreword Lawrence D. Phillips ix
Preface xi
Chapter 1 Introduction 1
Chapter 2 How people make decisions involving
multiple objectives 15
Chapter 3 Decisions involving multiple objectives:
SMART 27
Chapter 4 Introduction to probability 71
Chapter 5 Decision making under uncertainty 95
Chapter 6 Decision trees and influence diagrams 143
Chapter 7 Applying simulation to decision problems 179
Chapter 8 Revising judgments in the light of new
information 215
Chapter 9 Biases in probability assessment 247
Chapter 10 Methods for eliciting probabilities 277
Chapter 11 Risk and uncertainty management 297
Chapter 12 Decisions involving groups of individuals 309
Chapter 13 Resource allocation and negotiation
problems 329
Chapter 14 Decision framing and cognitive inertia 355
Chapter 15 Scenario planning: an alternative way of
dealing with uncertainty 377