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476 Index scenario intervention case study in public sector 393–400 scenario planning 9, 377–410, 453 case study 403–9 combining decision analysis and 400–3 scenario thinking 400 scenarios, using in decision making 383–7 Schell, G.P. 235 Schkade, D.A. 118 Schoemaker, P.J.H. 368–9, 370–1, 372 Seaver, D.A. 284, 315 self-correcting chance 256 Selling, T.I. 451 semi-lexicographic strategy 18–19 sensitivity analysis 99, 343–4, 454 of analytic hierarchy process 419–20 of scenario planning 408–9 of simulation 186–8 for weights of turnover 47–8 sequential decision making 3, 20–1 Shafir, E. 21, 22 Shepanski, A. 451 Shephard, G.G. 277 Shortcliffe, E.H. 430 Simon, Herbert A. 16, 20, 21 simple average 312, 315 simulation, application to investment decisions 197–204 Singh, C. 190 single-attribute utility 102–8 single-event probabilities 267–8 Slovic, P. 121 SMART (Simple Multi-attribute Rating Technique) 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 27–58, 420, 403, 458 benefits of additive model 43–4 intuitive vs analytic results 51–3 office location problem 29–30 option performance on attributes 34–9 stages in analysis 30–1 variants 53–4 weights of attributes 40–3 smart cards 9 SMARTER 457, 54–7, 402 Smedslund, J. 264 Sniezek, J. 269 solvability axiom 49 Spetzler, C.S. 234, 277, 278, 284 Stäel von Holstein, C.A. 277, 278, 284 standard deviation 191, 212–13 statistical models of judgments 447–52 status quo scenario 382, 387 Staw, B.M. 365 Stevenson, T.H. 434, 436 Stewart, T.R. 57 stochastic dominance 192–5 first-degree 192–3 second-degree 193–5 Strassman, P.A. 203 strategic inertia 361–3, 364, 371 strategic misrepresentation 348 structuring phase of probability assessment 278–9 subjective approach to probability 75–6 substitution axiom 113–14 summation axiom 49 swing weights 41 SWOT analysis 434 synectics 303 take the last strategy 17 technology serves scenario 297, 398 Thaler, R.H. 118, 360 Thomas, H. 71, 153, 189, 196, 284, 293 thought experiment 15 Tocher, K.D. 120 tornado diagram 187, 302–3 transitivity 19 transitivity axiom 49, 113 Tukey, J.W. 151 Tull, D.S. 236 Tversky, A. 22, 118, 121, 250–1, 254, 257, 259, 260, 261, 263, 287, 364, 368, 379 Ulvila, J.W. 152 unaided decision making 15 unbiased testing 222 uncertainty 3 sources of 298–300 uncertainty management 297–306 unconflicted adherence 371–2 unequal probability axiom 114–15 unions axiom 89 unrepresentative decision makers 265 utility 29 aggregation 317–19 axiom of 113–16 decision tree and 149 expected 106–8, 155 multi-attribute 123–32 single-attribute 102–8 usefulness of 119–23
Index 477 utility functions 7, 102 interpreting 108–10 for non-monetary attributes 110–13 utility independence 125–6 V.I.S.A. 8, 58 vague prior probabilities 222–3 validity 454, 455 value 29 aggregation of 317–19 value creation 395 value-focused thinking 53–4 value functions 37–9, 120 value of new information 225–34 value tree 31–3, 58 van der Heijden, Kees 384, 409 Vargas, L.G. 422 visual illusion 378 voice/image recognition 428 von Neumann, J. 101 von Winterfeldt, D. 41, 51, 52, 120, 156, 290, 315 Wagenaar, Willem 409 Wallsten, T.S. 284 Ward, S. 163, 297 Watson, S.R. 30, 33, 132 Webby, R. 267 weighted averages 312–14 weights of attributes 40–3 Whalley, P.C. 286 Whitred, G. 450 wide area network (WAN) 9 Wilkins, D.C. 429, 430 windtunnelling 384, 410 Winkler, R.L. 363, 315 Winter, F.W. 153 within-criterion weights 335–8 Woo, C. 269 Wooler, S. 32, 58 Wright, G. 27, 267, 270, 286, 364, 432–3, 443 Zamora, R.M. 234 Zimmer, I. 450
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Decision Analysis for Management Ju
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Decision Analysis for Management Ju
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To Mary and Josephine, Jamie, Jerom
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viii Contents Chapter 16 The analyt
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x Foreword real problems, and it is
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xii Preface accountancy, where rece
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1 Introduction Complex decisions Im
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The role of decision analysis 3 you
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Applications of decision analysis 5
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Overview of the book 11 and profit.
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References 13 8. Walls, M. R., Mora
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16 How people make decisions involv
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28 Decisions involving multiple obj
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72 Introduction to probability Beca
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74 Introduction to probability prac
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76 Introduction to probability we w
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78 Introduction to probability whet
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80 Introduction to probability give
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82 Introduction to probability prob
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84 Introduction to probability deci
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86 Introduction to probability that
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88 Introduction to probability inte
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90 Introduction to probability subj
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92 Introduction to probability (5)
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94 Introduction to probability (a)
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96 Decision making under uncertaint
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98 Decision making under uncertaint
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100 Decision making under uncertain
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6 Decision trees and influence diag
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Constructing a decision tree 145 be
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Determining the optimal policy 147
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Decision trees and utility 149 succ
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Decision trees involving continuous
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Practical applications of decision
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Assessment of decision structure 15
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Assessment of decision structure 15
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Eliciting decision tree representat
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Eliciting decision tree representat
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Summary 163 where the resulting dec
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Exercises 165 other elements of the
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Exercises 167 (b) Assuming that Wes
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Exercises 169 is not hired, given t
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Exercises 171 failing to meet the p
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Exercises 173 why it was rational f
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Exercises 175 (11) In the Eagle Mou
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References 177 ABC Chemicals are pl
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7 Applying simulation to decision p
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Monte Carlo simulation 181 Of cours
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Monte Carlo simulation 183 Table 7.
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Applying simulation to a decision p
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Applying simulation to investment d
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Summary 205 Hull 10 ), some of them
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Exercises 207 (c) Use your simulati
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Exercises 209 For each factor the f
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Exercises 211 (b) Suppose that your
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References 213 6 million Therefore
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216 Revising judgments in the light
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9 Biases in probability assessment
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Introduction 249 of people watching
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The availability heuristic 251 make
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The representativeness heuristic 25
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The anchoring and adjustment heuris
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The anchoring and adjustment heuris
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Other judgmental biases 263 Other j
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Is human probability judgment reall
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Exercises 271 Did you receive timel
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References 273 have been taken from
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References 275 18. Hamilton, D. L.
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10 Methods for eliciting probabilit
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Preparing for probability assessmen
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Consistency and coherence checks 28
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Assessment of the validity of proba
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Assessment of the validity of proba
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Assessing probabilities for very ra
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Exercises 293 Odds in favor of even
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References 295 13. Wright, G. and W
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298 Risk and uncertainty management
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310 Decisions involving groups of i
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330 Resource allocation and negotia
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14 Decision framing and cognitive i
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How people frame decisions 357 Figu
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Imposing imaginary constraints and
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Inertia in strategic decision makin
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Studies in the psychological labora
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Overcoming inertia? 369 it is diffi
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Discussion questions 373 frame anal
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References 375 References 1. Luchin
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15 Scenario planning: an alternativ
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Introduction 379 documented in Chap
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Scenario construction: the extreme-
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Using scenarios in decision making
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Using scenarios in decision making
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Scenario construction: the driving
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Case study of a scenario interventi
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Table 15.1 - The components of the
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Illustrative case study 403 (b) Att
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Illustrative case study 405 Stage 4
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Illustrative case study 407 importa
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Conclusion 409 combinations. Often
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References 411 2. Van der Heijden,
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414 The analytic hierarchy process
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Page 475 and 476: References 459 Table 17.1 - Summary
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Page 488 and 489: 472 Index Brown, C.E. 446 Brown, S.
Page 490 and 491: 474 Index HIVIEW 58 Hodgkinson, G.P
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