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476 Index
scenario intervention
case study in public sector 393–400
scenario planning 9, 377–410, 453
case study 403–9
combining decision analysis and
400–3
scenario thinking 400
scenarios, using in decision making
383–7
Schell, G.P. 235
Schkade, D.A. 118
Schoemaker, P.J.H. 368–9, 370–1, 372
Seaver, D.A. 284, 315
self-correcting chance 256
Selling, T.I. 451
semi-lexicographic strategy 18–19
sensitivity analysis 99, 343–4, 454
of analytic hierarchy process 419–20
of scenario planning 408–9
of simulation 186–8
for weights of turnover 47–8
sequential decision making 3, 20–1
Shafir, E. 21, 22
Shepanski, A. 451
Shephard, G.G. 277
Shortcliffe, E.H. 430
Simon, Herbert A. 16, 20, 21
simple average 312, 315
simulation, application to investment
decisions 197–204
Singh, C. 190
single-attribute utility 102–8
single-event probabilities 267–8
Slovic, P. 121
SMART (Simple Multi-attribute Rating
Technique) 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 27–58,
420, 403, 458
benefits of additive model 43–4
intuitive vs analytic results 51–3
office location problem 29–30
option performance on attributes
34–9
stages in analysis 30–1
variants 53–4
weights of attributes 40–3
smart cards 9
SMARTER 457, 54–7, 402
Smedslund, J. 264
Sniezek, J. 269
solvability axiom 49
Spetzler, C.S. 234, 277, 278, 284
Stäel von Holstein, C.A. 277, 278, 284
standard deviation 191, 212–13
statistical models of judgments 447–52
status quo scenario 382, 387
Staw, B.M. 365
Stevenson, T.H. 434, 436
Stewart, T.R. 57
stochastic dominance 192–5
first-degree 192–3
second-degree 193–5
Strassman, P.A. 203
strategic inertia 361–3, 364, 371
strategic misrepresentation 348
structuring phase of probability
assessment 278–9
subjective approach to probability
75–6
substitution axiom 113–14
summation axiom 49
swing weights 41
SWOT analysis 434
synectics 303
take the last strategy 17
technology serves scenario 297, 398
Thaler, R.H. 118, 360
Thomas, H. 71, 153, 189, 196, 284, 293
thought experiment 15
Tocher, K.D. 120
tornado diagram 187, 302–3
transitivity 19
transitivity axiom 49, 113
Tukey, J.W. 151
Tull, D.S. 236
Tversky, A. 22, 118, 121, 250–1, 254,
257, 259, 260, 261, 263, 287, 364,
368, 379
Ulvila, J.W. 152
unaided decision making 15
unbiased testing 222
uncertainty 3
sources of 298–300
uncertainty management 297–306
unconflicted adherence 371–2
unequal probability axiom 114–15
unions axiom 89
unrepresentative decision makers 265
utility 29
aggregation 317–19
axiom of 113–16
decision tree and 149
expected 106–8, 155
multi-attribute 123–32
single-attribute 102–8
usefulness of 119–23