Downloadable - About University

Index 475
net present value (NPV) method
198–200, 203–4, 297
Newman, J.R. 34, 46
nine-dot problem 357, 374
non-compensatory heuristic 16, 18, 19
non-rational escalation of commitment
365–6
objectives 28–9
O’Connor, M. 267
Olson, D.L. 422
optimal policy determination 147–9
options performance on attributes
34–9
outcomes 72
overconfidence 261–2, 371
Paton, R. 434
Payne, J.W. 23, 265
Pearson, E.S. 151
pension plans 10
people’s kailyard scenario 397, 398
Peterson, C.R. 349
Phillips, L.D. 4, 52, 323, 324, 329, 349,
458
Pickup, M. 445
Pitz, G.F. 363
Plous, S. 257, 263
Porac, J.F. 361
positive scenario 382, 387
positiveness axiom 89
posterior analysis 224
posterior probability 216
Pöyhönen, M. 42
PRECISION TREE 149
preference orderings, aggregating
315–17
preposterior analysis 227
present value factor 199
prior probability 216
probability assessment 71–94, 281–4,
285
comparison of methods 284–5
preparation for 278–81
validity 287–9
very rare events 290–3
probability density 85
probability density function (pdf) 85,
282
probability distributions 83–7, 188
probability-equivalence approach 104,
116
probability judgments, revision of
221–4
probability trees 82–3
probability wheel 280–1, 284, 290
procrastination 367
production rules 431
proxy attribute 29
psychologic processes, studies of
363–9
psychology laboratory, studies in
371–2
Raiffa, H. 28, 32, 120, 123, 126, 132, 262,
344, 348, 349
random numbers 181
random sequence of events 255
Rangaswamy, A. 433, 434, 436, 443
rank order centroid (ROC) weights
55–7
rationality 5
real-world studies 266–7
reason-based choice 21–3
recall, ease of 251–2
recognition heuristic 16–17
reference point 370
regression to the mean 256–7
Reinhold, H. 363
relative frequency approach to
probability 74
relative heights, method of 283–4
reliability of decision marker 454
representativeness 287
representativeness heuristic 253–8
requisite decision model 52
resource allocation
modeling of 330–1
stages of analysis 331–44
risk analysis 5
risk, attitude to 3
risk aversion 108, 368
risk taking 368
Roberts, R. 57
robotics 428
Rohrbough, J. 324, 325
rollback method 147–8, 149, 150
Ronen, B. 113
Ross, J. 365
Rubin, J.Z. 369
Russo, J.E. 368–9, 370–1, 372
Saaty, Thomas 413, 417, 418, 421
satisificing 20–1
Scanlon, S. 235
scenario construction 380–3,
387–93