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474 Index HIVIEW 58 Hodgkinson, G.P. 361 Hogarth, R.M. 263, 265 Home Counties Building Society 10 Hosseini, J. 153 Howard, R.A. 144 Hull, J.C. 205 Humphreys, P. 157 ’I-knew-it-all-along’ effect 287 illusory correlation 252–3 imagined events, ease of 252 Impossibility Theorem (Arrow) 317 independence of irrelevant alternatives 22 independent event 80 inertia cognitive 360–1, 362–9 overcoming 369–71 strategic 361–3, 364, 371 inertia effect 363 inference engine 431 influence diagrams 5, 159–63 information, value of new 225–34 interval scale 35 irrational strategy 19 Janis, I. 320, 367, 369 Johnson, E.J. 118 Johnson, G. 361, 362 joint probability 81 Kahane, Adam 388, 389 Kahneman, D. 118, 250–1, 254, 257, 259, 260, 261, 263, 269, 287, 364, 368, 379 Keefer, D.L. 151, 152 Keeney, R.L. 4, 27, 28, 32, 53, 123, 126, 132, 157, 403 Kiangi, G. 190 Kirkwood, C.W. 123, 277 knowledge elicitation 429 knowledge engineering 429 Kolmogoroff axioms 89 laboratory research, judgements in 265 Lacava, G.J. 236 lateral thinking 303 lexicographic strategy 18 Libby, R. 450 life underwriting 438 Lindley, D.V. 287 Lindoerfer 320 linear modeling 427 LITMUS II 434 Lock, A. 313 log-odds scale 290, 292–3 Lovallo, D. 269 Luchins, A.S. 356 Luchins, E.G. 356 Madden, T.J. 153 Makridakis, S. 263 Mann, L. 367 marginal probability 79–80 MARKETING EDGE 434 Markowitz, H.M. 195, 196 maximin criterion 96–7 McCann, J.M. 435 McCartt, A. 324, 325 McDonald, M.H.B. 434, 436, 437 mean–standard deviation screening 195 Meehl, P.E. 447, 449, 451 method of relative heights 283–4 mindguarding 320–1 minimalist strategy 17 minimax 97 misunderstood tasks 265–6 Mitchell, A.A. 433, 435 MMPI 447 Monte Carlo simulation 180–90 Moore, P.G. 71 Morganstern, O. 101 Morris, P.A. 314 motivation, lack of 266 motivation phase of probability assessment 278 Moutinho, L. 434 Müller–Lyer illusion 378 multi-attribute utility 123–32 multi-attribute utility function, deriving 126–31 multi-attribute value theory 453 multiple objectives 3 multiple stakeholders 3 multiplication rule 80–2 Murphy, A.M. 266, 363 mutual preference independence 49, 50 mutual utility independence 125–6 mutually exclusive events 76 negative feedback 365 negative scenario 382, 387 NEGOTEX 436, 437 negotiation models 344–5
Index 475 net present value (NPV) method 198–200, 203–4, 297 Newman, J.R. 34, 46 nine-dot problem 357, 374 non-compensatory heuristic 16, 18, 19 non-rational escalation of commitment 365–6 objectives 28–9 O’Connor, M. 267 Olson, D.L. 422 optimal policy determination 147–9 options performance on attributes 34–9 outcomes 72 overconfidence 261–2, 371 Paton, R. 434 Payne, J.W. 23, 265 Pearson, E.S. 151 pension plans 10 people’s kailyard scenario 397, 398 Peterson, C.R. 349 Phillips, L.D. 4, 52, 323, 324, 329, 349, 458 Pickup, M. 445 Pitz, G.F. 363 Plous, S. 257, 263 Porac, J.F. 361 positive scenario 382, 387 positiveness axiom 89 posterior analysis 224 posterior probability 216 Pöyhönen, M. 42 PRECISION TREE 149 preference orderings, aggregating 315–17 preposterior analysis 227 present value factor 199 prior probability 216 probability assessment 71–94, 281–4, 285 comparison of methods 284–5 preparation for 278–81 validity 287–9 very rare events 290–3 probability density 85 probability density function (pdf) 85, 282 probability distributions 83–7, 188 probability-equivalence approach 104, 116 probability judgments, revision of 221–4 probability trees 82–3 probability wheel 280–1, 284, 290 procrastination 367 production rules 431 proxy attribute 29 psychologic processes, studies of 363–9 psychology laboratory, studies in 371–2 Raiffa, H. 28, 32, 120, 123, 126, 132, 262, 344, 348, 349 random numbers 181 random sequence of events 255 Rangaswamy, A. 433, 434, 436, 443 rank order centroid (ROC) weights 55–7 rationality 5 real-world studies 266–7 reason-based choice 21–3 recall, ease of 251–2 recognition heuristic 16–17 reference point 370 regression to the mean 256–7 Reinhold, H. 363 relative frequency approach to probability 74 relative heights, method of 283–4 reliability of decision marker 454 representativeness 287 representativeness heuristic 253–8 requisite decision model 52 resource allocation modeling of 330–1 stages of analysis 331–44 risk analysis 5 risk, attitude to 3 risk aversion 108, 368 risk taking 368 Roberts, R. 57 robotics 428 Rohrbough, J. 324, 325 rollback method 147–8, 149, 150 Ronen, B. 113 Ross, J. 365 Rubin, J.Z. 369 Russo, J.E. 368–9, 370–1, 372 Saaty, Thomas 413, 417, 418, 421 satisificing 20–1 Scanlon, S. 235 scenario construction 380–3, 387–93
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Decision Analysis for Management Ju
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Decision Analysis for Management Ju
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To Mary and Josephine, Jamie, Jerom
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viii Contents Chapter 16 The analyt
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x Foreword real problems, and it is
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xii Preface accountancy, where rece
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1 Introduction Complex decisions Im
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The role of decision analysis 3 you
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Applications of decision analysis 5
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Overview of the book 11 and profit.
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References 13 8. Walls, M. R., Mora
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16 How people make decisions involv
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28 Decisions involving multiple obj
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72 Introduction to probability Beca
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74 Introduction to probability prac
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76 Introduction to probability we w
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78 Introduction to probability whet
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80 Introduction to probability give
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82 Introduction to probability prob
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84 Introduction to probability deci
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86 Introduction to probability that
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88 Introduction to probability inte
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90 Introduction to probability subj
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92 Introduction to probability (5)
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94 Introduction to probability (a)
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96 Decision making under uncertaint
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98 Decision making under uncertaint
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100 Decision making under uncertain
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6 Decision trees and influence diag
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Constructing a decision tree 145 be
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Determining the optimal policy 147
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Decision trees and utility 149 succ
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Decision trees involving continuous
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Practical applications of decision
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Assessment of decision structure 15
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Assessment of decision structure 15
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Eliciting decision tree representat
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Eliciting decision tree representat
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Summary 163 where the resulting dec
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Exercises 165 other elements of the
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Exercises 167 (b) Assuming that Wes
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Exercises 169 is not hired, given t
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Exercises 171 failing to meet the p
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Exercises 173 why it was rational f
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Exercises 175 (11) In the Eagle Mou
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References 177 ABC Chemicals are pl
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7 Applying simulation to decision p
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Monte Carlo simulation 181 Of cours
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Monte Carlo simulation 183 Table 7.
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Applying simulation to a decision p
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Applying simulation to investment d
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Summary 205 Hull 10 ), some of them
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Exercises 207 (c) Use your simulati
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Exercises 209 For each factor the f
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Exercises 211 (b) Suppose that your
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References 213 6 million Therefore
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216 Revising judgments in the light
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9 Biases in probability assessment
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Introduction 249 of people watching
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The availability heuristic 251 make
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The representativeness heuristic 25
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The anchoring and adjustment heuris
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The anchoring and adjustment heuris
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Other judgmental biases 263 Other j
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Is human probability judgment reall
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Exercises 271 Did you receive timel
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References 273 have been taken from
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References 275 18. Hamilton, D. L.
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10 Methods for eliciting probabilit
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Preparing for probability assessmen
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Consistency and coherence checks 28
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Assessment of the validity of proba
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Assessment of the validity of proba
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Assessing probabilities for very ra
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Exercises 293 Odds in favor of even
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References 295 13. Wright, G. and W
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298 Risk and uncertainty management
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310 Decisions involving groups of i
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330 Resource allocation and negotia
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14 Decision framing and cognitive i
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How people frame decisions 357 Figu
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Imposing imaginary constraints and
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Inertia in strategic decision makin
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Studies in the psychological labora
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Overcoming inertia? 369 it is diffi
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Discussion questions 373 frame anal
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References 375 References 1. Luchin
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15 Scenario planning: an alternativ
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Introduction 379 documented in Chap
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Scenario construction: the extreme-
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Using scenarios in decision making
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Using scenarios in decision making
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Scenario construction: the driving
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Case study of a scenario interventi
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Table 15.1 - The components of the
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Illustrative case study 403 (b) Att
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Illustrative case study 405 Stage 4
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Illustrative case study 407 importa
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Conclusion 409 combinations. Often
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References 411 2. Van der Heijden,
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414 The analytic hierarchy process
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Page 488 and 489: 472 Index Brown, C.E. 446 Brown, S.
Page 492 and 493: 476 Index scenario intervention cas
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