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472 Index
Brown, C.E. 446
Brown, S.W. 435
Brownlow, S.A. 33
buck passing 367
Buckley, T. 269
Budescu, D.V. 284
Buede, D.M. 30, 32, 132
Bunn, D.W. 132, 267, 284, 293
business-as-usual scenario 387, 399
business idea 383–4
calibration 270, 287–9
card sorting 439
Casey, C. 451
certainty axiom 89
certainty-equivalence approach
116–18
Chalos, P. 451
Chapman, C. 163, 297
Chapman, L.J. 253
Chapman, L.P. 253
checklists 303
Choisser, R.W. 32
citation bias 266
classical approach to probability 73–4
cognitive illusions 379
cognitive inertia 360–1, 362–9
Cohan, D. 153
coherence in probability assessment
285–7, 288
compensatory heuristic 16
competitive advantage 383
complementary events 78–9
complete ordering axiom 113
compound lottery axiom 114, 115
conditional probability 79–80
conditional sampling 204
conditioning phase of probability
assessment 278
conditions dilemma 329
Condorcet’s paradox 316
confirmation bias 364
conflict theory 367
conjunction fallacy 257–8, 268
conjunctive events 259–60
conservatism 263, 363, 371
consistency in probability assessment
285–7, 288
constraints, imaginary 359–60
context focusing 439
contextual information 267
continuity axiom 113
continuous probability distribution 85
Cooper, A. 269
coping patterns 367
Corner, J.L. 119
Corner, P.D. 119
Corrigan, B. 449
cost–benefit trade-off 44–6
covariation, biased assessment of
263–4
creativity 4, 303, 355–7
cumulative distribution function (CDF)
86, 192–3, 282
Dawes, R.M. 448, 449, 450, 451
de Bono, Edward 359
De Groot, M.H. 313
de Neufville, R. 123
Decanal Engineering Corporation
123–4
decidability axiom 49
decision aids 429
decision analysis 452
applications 5–11
divide and conquer orientation of 4
partial 5
role of 3–5
decision-analytic representation 154–9
decision conferencing 6, 7, 9, 10, 323–5,
454
decision frame 357–9
decision hierarchy 414–15
decision-support systems 429
decision table 96
decision trees 7, 143–64, 409, 452
and continuous probability
distributions 150–2
assessment of structure 154–9
constructing 144–6
elicitation of representations 159–63
optimal policy determination 147–9
practical applications 152–4
utility and 149
defensive avoidance 367
Delphi technique 321–3, 400
democratic process 395
dependence relationship modeling
204–5
dependent event 80
direct assessment of probabilities
279–81
direct rating 35–7
discrete probability distribution 84
disjoint events 76
disjunctive events 260–1