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Index
@RISK 205
across-criteria weights 339
addition rule of probability 76–8
additive value model 43–4
ADVISOR 434
aggregation
behavioral 309
of benefits 43–4
of judgments 311–14
mathematical 310–11
preference judgments 315–19
probability judgments 314–15
of utilities 317–19
of values 49–51, 317–19
Allais’s paradox 121
alternative-focused thinking 53
analytic hierarchy process (AHP) 10,
413–23
comparisons of attributes 415–17
consistency 417–19
criticism 421–3
strengths 420–1
weights 417–19
anchoring and adjustment heuristic
258–62, 364, 371
Apert, M. 262
Appelman, A. 365
approval voting 317
Arkes, H.R. 263
Arrow, K.J. 316, 317
artificial intelligence 427
Ashton, A.H. 312, 313
Ashton, R.H. 312, 313
Assmus, G. 236
attributes
definition 28–9
proxy 29
audit trail 4
auto-teller machines (ATMs) 9
availability heuristic 251–3
axioms 5
of analytic hierarchy process 422
of probability theory 89
of SMART 48–9
of utility 113–16
Ayton, P. 364, 432–3, 443
backward chaining 431
Barclay, S. 32, 58, 349
Barr, P.S. 361, 362
Barron, F. Hutton 54, 55, 56
base rates 254
Bayes, Thomas 215
Bayes’ theorem 215, 216–21, 314
Bazerman, M.H. 365
Beach, L.R. 265, 266
Beccue, P. 144
behavioral aggregation 309
Bell, D.E. 153
Belton, V. 57
Besley, F. 198
biased tests 216
biases in probability assessment
247–70
bisection method 38, 54
black box methods 30, 323–4
Bodily, S.E. 51, 151, 152
Bolger, F. 270, 364, 439
bolstering 367
‘book-bag-and-poker-chip’ paradigm
363
bootstrapping 449, 452
Bordley, R.F. 314
bounded rationality 16
bracketing of decision 360–1
brainstorming 297, 298, 303–5
Brand Manager’s Assistant (BMA) 435
broken leg cue 451