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458 Alternative decision-support systems
effort than others? For example, in one decision the key issue may be
determining the structure of the problem, in another it may be assessing
the risk of alternative courses of action, while in a third it may be
determining the key attributes. Sometimes a partial analysis is sufficient:
a decision tree without payoffs or probabilities may be sufficient to
clarify the structure of the decision; a value tree used without further
analysis may be sufficient to clarify objectives. Similarly, a first-cut
attempt at building one or two scenarios may be sufficient to overcome
strategic inertia and prompt the search for more robust strategies. More
specifically, in a SMART application there is little point in devoting
most of the decision-making effort to fine tuning the attribute weights
while neglecting the key problem of identifying and agreeing what the
attributes are in the first place.
Overall, the degree of analysis of a decision problem is, in itself, a
matter of judgment. Initial attempts at structuring and analyzing a
decision may bring early benefits, whereas an analysis which attempts
to embrace all the details of a problem may produce little additional
benefit. In general, we support Larry Phillips’ view that the role of the
range of decision-aiding techniques is to produce additional insight into
the solution of decision problems with the result that new intuitions and
higher level perspectives are generated.
Which method(s) are likely to help with my decision problem?
Table 17.1 gives a list of the techniques that we have covered in this
book and matches them to the type of decision problems that they are
designed to address.
Summary
In this chapter we introduced two additional ways of aiding decision
making: expert systems and linear models. In common with
decision analysis and scenario planning, these decision-aiding technologies
involve a substantial component of judgmental modeling, but
are applied in different circumstances and place differing emphases on
the nature and assumed validity of the judgmental components. Finally,
we gave some general advice on the application of decision-aiding
methods and summarized the techniques which have been covered in
this book.