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Some final words of advice 457
of the cases cited in Chapter 1 show that decision analysis can be
an extremely effective way of bringing together groups of individuals
involved in the decision. It provides a common language of
communication between different specialists and may help to resolve
conflicts which may otherwise prevent the successful implementation of
the decision.
Have I made an adequate search for alternative courses of action?
The insights yielded by decision analysis may lead to the development of
new alternatives, but there is no guarantee of this if the problem analyzed
is seen as a choice between a fixed set of alternatives. Additionally, as we
have argued, decision making is, in general, likely to be mechanistic and
show cognitive inertia. However, techniques to aid the development
of new options are relatively underemphasized in decision analysis.
Intuitively, it would seem sensible to spend time looking for alternative
courses of action before using decision analysis to evaluate them. Both
the frame analysis worksheet and scenario planning are useful here. The
focus within the frame analysis worksheet is on providing alternative
framing of decision options while, in scenario planning, the focus is on
generating alternative frames of plausible futures. Within these futures,
alternative courses of action may be more or less robust.
How much effort is the decision worth? Which aspects of the problem
require the most effort?
Obviously, some of the decision-aiding techniques that we have described
in this book are more costly in terms of time and effort than
others. For example, the application of SMARTER to a problem is likely
to involve far less effort than multi-attribute utility. Similarly, decision
conferencing will usually be more expensive to conduct than allowing
the decision to be taken by a single individual. It is therefore advisable to
make an assessment of the importance and nature of the problem before
proceeding with the analysis.
Major decisions, such as the siting of nuclear power stations, will merit
more effort and more detailed models than the problem of choosing a
new PC for the accountant’s office. Remember that the main purpose of
decision analysis is to produce insights and understanding. This begs the
question, what parts of the decision problem need to be illuminated? Is
it the entire problem or just certain aspects? Do some parts require more