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456 Alternative decision-support systems
necessarily remove them. For example, an elegant decision analysis
model does not guarantee that the right problem has been solved, or
that effort has been devoted to the appropriate parts of the problem
or that the right people have been involved in the decision. Indeed,
the model might do harm. By lending an impression of rigor to the
decision, and by causing the decision maker to focus on the detail, rather
than the wider view, the false belief that the chosen course of action
is the right one may be heightened. Before applying decision analysis
to a problem, it is therefore a good idea to step back and consider the
following questions.
Are my assumptions about the business environment
and the future valid?
We saw in Chapter 14 that managers can make decisions on the basis
of false, or overly narrow, views of the environment within which
they operate. The effects of changes in the world, such as technological
developments or competitor behavior, may therefore not be addressed.
There may be a misplaced confidence that the future will be the same as
the past so that uncertainty and potential threats may be underestimated
or ignored. For major strategic decisions we therefore recommend the
use of scenario planning (Chapter 15) before carrying out any decision
analysis. By directly addressing key uncertainties and trends and their
interrelationship with the behavior of key actors and by bringing together
the perspectives of different people a broader and more enlightened view
of the problem is likely to emerge.
Who should I involve in the decision?
There are a number of reasons why you might want to bring other
people into the decision process. Specialists can bring their expert
knowledge to appropriate parts of the problem. Different individuals
can come to the problem from different perspectives so that a
broader view of the problem is generated. A commitment to action
is more likely to emanate when those responsible for implementing
the decision have been involved in the process and have developed
a shared understanding of the problem. As we saw in Chapters 12
and 14, there are many dangers associated with decisions involving
groups and so the decision process should be carefully planned,
with methods like decision conferencing being considered. Several