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436 Alternative decision-support systems
plan for Munchkins was a complete failure’. Such systems only partially
automate a decision-making process and are best categorized as
advice-giving systems.
Eisenhart 20 provides a description of what we believe is best practice
in expert system deployment, in that a business case can be quantified
for the application. Here, Texas Instruments’ own expert systems group
designed an expert system (called ES 2 ) that runs on a PC and which
evaluates whether potential sales prospects really would benefit from
Texas Instruments’ expert systems products/customized applications.
To use the system, potential customers answer questions which explore
whether expert systems would solve their problem, while at the same
time educating them about the basis of the technology. Finally, the
system makes an overall recommendation on whether the prospect
needs an expert system. ES 2 has had immediate measurable payback to
the small expert system division at Texas Instruments in that 80% of the
‘potential’ leads are eliminated. Since ‘an initial in-person qualification
trip currently costs $1000 and takes from one to two days’ the savings
to Texas Instruments are substantial. (Texas Instruments’ field analysts
previously had to accompany salespeople to answer technical queries,
ES 2 can thus be categorized as an advice-giving system.)
Stevenson et al. 21 differentiate between systems which have direct
measurable benefit to the marketing function, such as ES 2 and those
which have less measurable indirect benefits. One such is Rangaswamy
et al.’s 22 NEGOTEX system which provides guidelines for individuals or
teams preparing for ‘international marketing’ negotiations. The advice
given was culled from a search of the academic literature on effective
negotiation strategies. Such expert systems can ‘stimulate managers to
consider factors they might otherwise overlook and encourage them to
explore new options ...these systems provide a mechanism for bridging
the gap between academics and practitioners’. Obviously, advice from
the NEGOTEX system will provide ‘stimulation’ but the advice will be
less specific than that given by the scanning data systems described
earlier in this section.
McDonald 23 details a case study of a DTI-sponsored attempt to build
expert systems in marketing. Ten companies formed a club called
EXMAR in 1987 to investigate the possibility of computerized assistance
for marketing planning. Because McDonald was the expert whose
expertise was to be modeled in the system, the two articles give a realistic
flavor of problems overcome and progress made. Since there was
a diversity of interest within the club members, a decision was made