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17
Alternative decision-support
systems
Introduction
In this chapter we present an overview of two further ways of aiding
decision making: linear modeling and expert systems. Linear modeling
involves building a statistical model of a person’s judgments or predictions
and subsequently utilizing the model instead of the person. Expert
systems relate to building a model of the decision processes of an expert
decision maker. In a similar way to linear modeling, the expert system
representation of the decision maker is subsequently used instead of
the person.
From the above short overviews it is clear that these decision-aiding
technologies – as well as all the other decision-aiding approaches that
we have discussed in earlier chapters – require the elicitation and representation
of human judgment. As we shall see, linear modeling and
expert systems place different emphasis on the assumed quality of the
judgmental input. In this chapter we will first introduce the decisionaiding
technologies and then compare and contrast them, both with each
other and then with both decision analysis and scenario planning. Our
focus will be on the domains of applicability of the different approaches
and on the validity of the resulting decisions.
Expert systems
What is an expert system?
Expert systems are one offshoot of research into artificial intelligence
(AI). The aim of AI is to represent the totality of human intelligence and
thought within a computer system. Within AI research are such fields of
study as: