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424 The analytic hierarchy process (2) A manager is using the AHP to decide which of three computer maintenance firms (Compex, Debug and EAC) should be awarded a three-year contract. Her preferences for the companies on the basis of their reputation for reliability are given below. Are the manager’s judgments perfectly consistent? Compex Debug EAC Compex 1 1/2 2 Debug 1 6 EAC 1 (3) For the hierarchy shown in Figures 16.1 and 16.2 show how the score for the Barton machine was obtained and explain why this machine obtained the highest score. (4) One of the criticisms of the AHP is that the introduction of new alternatives can change the ranking of existing alternatives. Under what circumstances, if any, is this likely to be reasonable? (5) A manager is hoping to appoint a new assistant and decides to use the AHP to rank the applicants for the job. Then, as a check, she decides to repeat the process using SMART. She is surprised to find that the ranking of the applicants derived from the AHP differs significantly from the ranking suggested by the SMART analysis. Discuss why these differences might have arisen. References 1. Zahedi, F. (1986) The Analytic Hierarchy Process – A Survey of the Method and its Applications, Interfaces, 16, 96–108. 2. Expert Choice is a product of Expert Choice, Inc., 4922, Ellsworth Avenue, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, 15213, USA. 3. Saaty, T. L. (1990) The Analytic Hierarchy Process, RWS Publications, Pittsburgh. 4. Saaty, T. L. and Vargas, L. G. (1991) Prediction, Projection and Forecasting, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Norwell, MA. 5. Ulengin, F. and Ulengin, B. (1994) Forecasting Foreign Exchange Rates: A Comparative Evaluation of the AHP, Omega, 22, 509–519. 6. Wolfe, C. and Flores, B. (1990) Judgmental Adjustments of Earnings Forecasts, Journal of Forecasting, 9, 389–405. 7. Belton, V. and Goodwin, P. (1996) Remarks on the Application of the Analytic Hierarchy Process to Judgmental Forecasting, International Journal of Forecasting, 12, 155–161.
References 425 8. Belton, V. and Stewart, T. J. (2002) Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis. An Integrated Approach, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Norwell, MA. 9. Belton, V. (1986) A Comparison of the Analytic Hierarchy Process and Simple Multi-Attribute Value Function, European Journal of Operational Research, 26, 7–21. 10. Olson, D. L., Moshkovich, H. M., Schellenberger, R. and Mechitov, A. I. (1995) Consistency and Accuracy in Decision Aids: Experiments with Four Multiattribute Systems, Decision Sciences, 26, 723–748. 11. Belton, V. and Gear, T. (1983) On a Short-Coming in Saaty’s Method of Analytic Hierarchies, Omega, 11, 228–230. 12. Dyer, J. S. (1990) Remarks on the Analytic Hierarchy Process, Management Science, 36, 249–258. 13. Harker, P. T. and Vargas, L. G. (1990) Reply to ‘Remarks on the Analytic Hierarchy Process’ by J. S. Dyer, Management Science, 36, 269–273. 14. Watson, S. R. and Buede, D. M. (1987) Decision Synthesis, Cambridge <strong>University</strong> Press, Cambridge.
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Decision Analysis for Management Ju
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Decision Analysis for Management Ju
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To Mary and Josephine, Jamie, Jerom
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viii Contents Chapter 16 The analyt
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x Foreword real problems, and it is
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xii Preface accountancy, where rece
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1 Introduction Complex decisions Im
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The role of decision analysis 3 you
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Applications of decision analysis 5
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Overview of the book 11 and profit.
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References 13 8. Walls, M. R., Mora
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16 How people make decisions involv
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28 Decisions involving multiple obj
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72 Introduction to probability Beca
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74 Introduction to probability prac
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76 Introduction to probability we w
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78 Introduction to probability whet
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80 Introduction to probability give
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82 Introduction to probability prob
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84 Introduction to probability deci
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86 Introduction to probability that
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88 Introduction to probability inte
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90 Introduction to probability subj
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92 Introduction to probability (5)
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94 Introduction to probability (a)
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96 Decision making under uncertaint
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98 Decision making under uncertaint
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100 Decision making under uncertain
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6 Decision trees and influence diag
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Constructing a decision tree 145 be
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Determining the optimal policy 147
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Decision trees and utility 149 succ
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Decision trees involving continuous
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Practical applications of decision
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Assessment of decision structure 15
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Assessment of decision structure 15
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Eliciting decision tree representat
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Eliciting decision tree representat
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Summary 163 where the resulting dec
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Exercises 165 other elements of the
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Exercises 167 (b) Assuming that Wes
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Exercises 169 is not hired, given t
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Exercises 171 failing to meet the p
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Exercises 173 why it was rational f
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Exercises 175 (11) In the Eagle Mou
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References 177 ABC Chemicals are pl
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7 Applying simulation to decision p
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Monte Carlo simulation 181 Of cours
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Monte Carlo simulation 183 Table 7.
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Applying simulation to a decision p
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Applying simulation to investment d
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Summary 205 Hull 10 ), some of them
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Exercises 207 (c) Use your simulati
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Exercises 209 For each factor the f
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Exercises 211 (b) Suppose that your
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References 213 6 million Therefore
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216 Revising judgments in the light
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9 Biases in probability assessment
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Introduction 249 of people watching
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The availability heuristic 251 make
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The representativeness heuristic 25
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The anchoring and adjustment heuris
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The anchoring and adjustment heuris
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Other judgmental biases 263 Other j
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Is human probability judgment reall
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Exercises 271 Did you receive timel
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References 273 have been taken from
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References 275 18. Hamilton, D. L.
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10 Methods for eliciting probabilit
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Preparing for probability assessmen
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Consistency and coherence checks 28
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Assessment of the validity of proba
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Assessment of the validity of proba
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Assessing probabilities for very ra
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Exercises 293 Odds in favor of even
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References 295 13. Wright, G. and W
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298 Risk and uncertainty management
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310 Decisions involving groups of i
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330 Resource allocation and negotia
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14 Decision framing and cognitive i
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How people frame decisions 357 Figu
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Imposing imaginary constraints and
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Inertia in strategic decision makin
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Studies in the psychological labora
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Overcoming inertia? 369 it is diffi
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Page 389 and 390: Discussion questions 373 frame anal
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Page 425 and 426: Conclusion 409 combinations. Often
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Page 445 and 446: Expert systems 429 generally agreed
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Page 469 and 470: Comparisons 453 ‘broken leg’ cu
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Page 473 and 474: Some final words of advice 457 of t
Page 475 and 476: References 459 Table 17.1 - Summary
Page 477 and 478: References 461 20. Eisenhart, J. (1
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Page 488 and 489: 472 Index Brown, C.E. 446 Brown, S.
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474 Index HIVIEW 58 Hodgkinson, G.P
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476 Index scenario intervention cas
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