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28 Decisions involving multiple objectives: SMART
accepts the axioms then it follows that the results of the analysis will
indicate how he or she should behave if the decision is to be made in
a rational way. The analysis is therefore normative or prescriptive; it
shows which alternative should be chosen if the decision maker acts
consistently with his or her stated preferences.
The method explained here is normally applied in situations where
a particular course of action is regarded as certain (or virtually certain)
to lead to a given outcome so that uncertainty is not a major concern
of the analysis. (We will consider, in later chapters, techniques which
are designed to be used where risk and uncertainty are central concerns
of the decision maker.) Nevertheless, there are exceptions to this rule,
and we will show later how the method can be adapted to problems
involving risk and uncertainty.
It should be emphasized that the main role of our analysis is to
enable the decision maker to gain an increased understanding of his
or her decision problem. If at the end of this analysis no single best
course of action has been identified, this does not mean that the analysis
was worthless. Often the insights gained may suggest other approaches
to the problem or lead to a greater common understanding among a
heterogeneous group of decision makers. They may lead to a complete
reappraisal of the nature of the problem or enable a manager to reduce
a large number of alternatives to a few, which can then be put forward
to higher management with arguments for and against. Because of this
the analysis is flexible. Although we present it as a series of stages, the
decision maker is always free at any point to return to an earlier stage
or to change the definition of the problem. Indeed, it is likely that this
will happen as a deeper understanding of the nature of the problem is
gained through the analysis.
Basic terminology
Objectives and attributes
Before proceeding, we need to clarify some of the basic terms we will
be using. An objective has been defined by Keeney and Raiffa 3 as an
indication of the preferred direction of movement. Thus, when stating
objectives, we use terms like ‘minimize’ or ‘maximize’. Typical objectives
might be to minimize costs or maximize market share. An attribute is used
to measure performance in relation to an objective. For example, if we
have the objective ‘maximize the exposure of a television advertisement’