Downloadable - About University

References 411
2. Van der Heijden, K. (1996) Scenarios: the Art of Strategic Conversation, Wiley,
Chichester.
3. Adapted from Ng, S. M. W. and McConnell, D. (1993) Development of a
Coherent European Strategy as Part of a Global Strategy for a Multi-national
Corporation in Liner Industry, Strathclyde Graduate Business School MBA
dissertation.
4. Adapted from Kahane, A. (1992) The Mont Fleur Scenarios, Weeky Mail and
The Guardian Weekly, Bellville, South Africa.
5. Carins, G., Wright, G., Bradfield, R., van der Heijden, K. and Burt, G. (in
press) Exploring E-Government Futures through the Application of Scenario
Planning, Technological Forecasting and Social Change.
6. ‘Kailyard’ is an old Scots term for ‘cabbage patch’ and was selected by
participants in the subgroup to describe a level of minimum subsistence for
members of society – despite vast amounts of energy expended on tending
the ‘cabbage patch’.
7. Von Winterfeldt, D. and Edwards, W. (1986) Decision Analysis and Behavioral
Research, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
8. Keeney, R. L. (1982) Decision Analysis: An Overview, Operations Research,
30, 803–838.
9. Phillips, L. D. (1984) A Theory of Requisite Decision Models, Acta Psychologica,
56, 29–48.
10. Keeney, R. L. (1992) Value Focused Thinking, Harvard University Press, Cambridge,
MA.
11. Wagenaar, W. A. (1994) The Subjective Probability of Guilt, in G. Wright
and P. Ayton (eds) Subjective Probability, Wiley, Chichester.
12. Van der Heijden, K. (1994) Probabilistic Planning and Scenario Planning, in
G. Wright and P. Ayton (eds) Subjective Probability, Wiley, Chichester.
13. For further reading on scenario planning see Wack, P. (1985) Scenarios:
Uncharted Waters Ahead, Harvard Business Review, Sept.–Oct., 73–90.
Wack, P. (1985) Scenarios: Shooting the Rapids, Harvard Business Review,
Nov.–Dec., 131–142.
Schoemaker, P. J. H. (1995) Scenario Planning: A Tool for Strategic Thinking,
Sloan Management Review, Winter, 25–40.