Downloadable - About University

410 Scenario planning
process of analysis. Instead, once the range of plausible futures has been
defined, these futures can be utilized over an extended time period as
and when new decision options are developed and subsequently tested
in the ‘windtunnel’ conditions. 13
Despite these advantages, we have also argued that some decision
analysis methods can usefully complement scenario planning. The use
of methods based on multi-attribute value analysis is likely to reduce
the complexities of evaluating strategies against multiple objectives in
multiple scenarios. A more insightful approach to strategic decision
making should be the result.
Discussion questions
(1) Decision trees and scenario planning are two ways of dealing with
uncertainty in the business environment. What are the advantages
and disadvantages of each approach?
(2) To what extent does the scenario planning process contain components
that are likely to prompt the recognition and resolution of the
problems of frame-blindness and strategic inertia?
(3) Some commentators argue that scenario planning is best suited to
the long-term future and major strategic decisions, whereas decision
analysis is focused on short-term operational decisions. Do you
agree? In what other ways do the domains of applicability of scenario
planning and decision analysis differ?
(4) Consider your organization. What major trends (predetermineds)
and uncertainties will have a significant impact, either positive or
negative, on its viability in the next 15 years? Create a range of
scenarios, using either the extreme-world or driving forces methods,
to incorporate these elements. Next, consider your organization’s
defining strategy (or business idea). Does it perform robustly against
the scenarios? If it does not, what aspects of the strategy should
be changed?
References
1. Adapted from Irvine, I. W. (1992) Change Management: How a Manufacturer
is Learning to Compete in New Markets, Strathclyde Graduate Business School
MBA dissertation.