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406 Scenario planning
These scores do not need to be exact. The process of determining them
and the focused thinking that this engenders are likely to be at least as
valuable as the quantitative result which is obtained at the end of the
analysis. For our two example objectives the scores are shown below.
Objective: Maximize long-term profit
Strategy
Scenario
DOG FIGHT MAIL MOUNTAIN
STATUS QUO 0 80
R&D 30 100
DIVERSIFY 50 60
Objective: Maximize share of letter market
Strategy
Scenario
DOG FIGHT MAIL MOUNTAIN
STATUS QUO 0 100
R&D 80 100
DIVERSIFY 0 100
Stage 6 Remove strategies whose performance on any objective, in any
scenario, renders the strategy to be unacceptable
This is an important stage in the analysis. It should serve to alert decision
makers to the dangers of pursuing particular strategies. It may also, of
course, enable strategies to be modified to avoid such dangers. (Note
that removal of a strategy will necessitate a reallocation of scores, where
that strategy was the only one to score either 0 or 100 against a given
objective.) In this case it is assumed that all strategies are acceptable.
Stage 7 (a) Compare 0 to 100 swings in strategy-scenario combinations
for the objectives. Rank these swings in order of importance
In Chapter 3 we argued that swing weights should be used to compare
the ‘importance’ of objectives. Here, this will involve ranking the