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Illustrative case study 403
(b) Attach a weight of 100 to the most important swing and
measure the importance of other swings on this scale.
Normalize the weights so that they sum to one.
Stage 8: For each strategy/scenario combination use the attribute
scores and weights to determine a weighted aggregate score.
Stage 9: Use the matrix of strategy/scenario aggregate scores to assess
and compare the strategies’ performance, paying particular
attention to the robustness of performance over the range
of scenarios.
Stage 10: Perform sensitivity analysis.
While the approach is very similar to SMART (see Chapter 3), a crucial
difference is the ordering of the stages of the analysis. The alternative
strategies are not considered until the plausible scenarios have been
formulated and the objectives determined. This latter deviation from
SMART reflects Keeney’s concern 10 that objectives should be identified
before alternatives since this is more likely to facilitate the design of
imaginative options and identification of new opportunities. We next
use a simplified case study to demonstrate the approach. Note that, in
practice, switching backwards and forwards between the stages is likely
as an increased understanding of the problem develops.
Illustrative case study
This case study concerns a newly privatized national mail company
which needs to formulate strategies with a 10-year planning horizon.
To date, the company has been protected by legislation which allows
it to operate as a monopoly on letter deliveries. This protection has
engendered a culture of muddling through (i.e. minor adjustments to
policies in reaction to events, with no clear sense of overall direction).
However, the environment within which the company may operate in
the future is likely to change fundamentally. For example, there is a
possibility that it will lose its monopoly position, while technological
developments pose long-term threats to the volume of letter mail.
Stage 1 Formulate scenarios
For simplicity, only two ‘extreme-world’ scenarios will be used here.