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Table 15.1 – The components of the futures methodologies
Scenario planning Decision analysis Delphi
Delphi is usually focused on
forecasting the occurrence of a
Decision analysis is conventionally
undertaken within a singular
Future orientation Multiple frames of the future are
constructed during the process
single event or quantity
Structuring is achieved by the
controlled exchange of
information between anonymous
panelists over a number of
rounds (iterations)
Expert panelists exchange their
existing estimates. Individual
experts can hold, or change, their
estimates on the basis of
feedback of the estimates of
other panelists
The statistical average of the
estimates on the final Delphi
round is taken as the group
judgment
general frame of the future
Quantitative decomposition into
probabilities, payoffs and
decision trees
Qualitative decomposition into
critical uncertainties and trends.
An emphasis on understanding
causality
Structure of
judgment
inputs
Fresh information may be sought if
the analysis indicates that a
decision is sensitive to small
changes in judgmental inputs
Scenario team members exchange
existing opinions on issues of
concern and ‘remarkable people’
systematically provide insight on
issues of critical uncertainty
Information
orientation
Focus on combining divergent
opinions by averaging and
reduction
Dissenting opinions are given
‘airtime’ which is preserved, and
combined with the opinions of
others, while maintaining
Process
orientation
None
The result of the analysis is a single
recommended decision for
subsequent implementation
divergence
Action orientation The result is shared understanding
within the management team, of
causally determined futures that
can galvanize managerial action
to avoid unfavorable futures or
facilitate the occurrence of
favorable ones