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388 Scenario planning
Is a
Current
settlement
negotiation
negotiated?
Yes
No
Is the
transition
rapid and decisive?
OSTRICH
(non-representative
government)
Yes
No
Are the
policies
sustainable?
LAME DUCK
(Long transition)
Figure 15.9 – An output of a ‘driving forces’ scenario structuring methodology
Yes
No
FLIGHT OF THE
FLAMINGOES
(inclusive growth
and democracy)
ICARUS
(macro-economic)
populism
Figure 15.9 gives an example structure of four scenarios for the (then)
future of South Africa which are driven by the forces whether or not
there is a negotiated settlement, whether or not the transition to majority
rule is rapid, and whether or not the economic policies of a majority
government are short or long term. Figure 15.10 details the scenarios
that were constructed by a team led by Adam Kahane in mid-1991.
The horizon year of the scenarios is 2002. These scenarios of the
social and political environment in South Africa would be useful to an
international company which was considering three decision options:
whether to maintain/reduce or increase its investments and overall
presence in South Africa. 4 Figure 15.11 gives the key steps in the driving
forces method.
Within the 12 steps contained within Figure 15.11, note that step 1 is
analogous to step 1 in the extreme-world methodology that we described
earlier in Figure 15.2. At step 2 in the driving forces scenario structuring
method, a multitude of elements will emerge from a group ‘brainstorm’
about the issue of concern. Many of the elements that emerge will address
the external environment, in that the predetermineds and uncertainties
are not under the control of the individual, group or organization whom
they will affect. These are the elements that it may be appropriate
to incorporate in the scenarios and these elements should be carried
forward to step 3. Other elements will have to do with areas where
the individual/group/organization has control, i.e. they are decision or
strategy options. Since decisions and strategies are to be evaluated against
the scenarios at the final step, these decision options should be removed